Recent Final Four appearances for both sides have segued into a more lopsided outlook at first glance for this high stakes conference tilt in Waco.
Houston has righted the ship after a shaky start to its season with a marquee victory over #14 Texas Tech on Tuesday. The Cougars enter at 14-1 and 2-0 in Big 12 play. Meanwhile, it’s been a less than inspiring start for Baylor, who are coming off a ten-point home loss to #3 Iowa State on Wednesday.
The Cougars haven’t been as dominant as advertised in the preseason, yet Kelvin Sampson has his team rolling of late. Since a difficult showing at the Players Era with a loss to Tennessee and an overtime scare versus Syracuse, Houston has rattled off ranked wins over Arkansas and Texas Tech for eight straight wins.
Baylor’s season has been underwhelming thus far as it falls closer and closer to the bubble. The Bears have struggled to build off of early wins versus Creighton and San Diego State, suffering a loss to Memphis in December and beginning conference play with a pair of losses to TCU and Iowa State.
Since joining the Big 12, the Cougars are a perfect 3-0 against Baylor, with two of those wins coming in Waco. That trend could continue in 2026 with both teams trending in opposite directions. Houston looks to solidify its March seeding as Big 12 play ramps up, while Baylor needs some big wins to hang on to its tournament hopes.
Houston vs. Baylor: When and Where
Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Location: Foster Pavilion, Waco, Texas
Houston vs. Baylor: TV and Streaming Info
TV: NBCSN
Streaming: Peacock
Houston vs. Baylor Betting Odds
Spread: Houston Cougars -3.5, Baylor Bears +3.5
Moneyline: Houston Cougars -164, Baylor Bears +140
Total: 142.5
Houston vs. Baylor Series History
All-Time Series: Houston leads 3-2
Last Meeting: Houston won 65-61 on March 8, 2025
Projected Starting Lineups
Houston Cougars
- #4 Kingston Flemings 16.1 PPG
- #21 Emanuel Sharp 16.0 PPG
- #7 Milos Uzan 11.3 PPG
- #5 Chris Cenac Jr. 9.1 PPG
- #11 Joseph Tugler 8.1 PPG
Key note: Flemings has three 20+ point outings since December, averaging 19.5 points per game over his last four contests
Baylor Bears
- #43 Cameron Carr 20.7 PPG
- #24 Tounde Yessoufou 18.0 PPG
- #0 Dan Skillings Jr. 11.8 PPG
- #5 Obi Agbim 10.8 PPG
- #12 Michael Rataj 9.9 PPG
Key note: Former NBA Draft pick James Nnaji has scored seven points across 32 minutes of action in his two games since arriving in Waco
Game Outlook
While Houston has had Baylor’s number since joining the conference, the raucous environment of the Foster Pavilion could sway the momentum in the direction of the Bears.
Flemings has been unstoppable of late and the Cougars will likely heavily lean on the star freshman. Following his 23-point showing against the Red Raiders, he may face some early double teams, opening the floor up for Uzan and Sharp to make an impact.
For Baylor, second half woes cannot hinder its shot at a home upset. The Bears fell apart over the final 20 minutes against Iowa State and must adapt to the flow of the game against Houston on Saturday. Interior shot making will be crucial to combat Houston’s physicality.
On paper, this is a game with two teams trending in opposite directions. While that may be true, an upset is certainly on the table for Scott Drew’s side. Desperation can be a powerful thing, and with Baylor chalking this up as a must-win for its tournament resume, expect a classic Big 12 rock fight in Waco.