Gonzaga heads to San Diego State for their first road test of the season. Do they continue their hot start to the year or can the Aztecs pull of another big upset over these Bulldogs?
TV schedule: Monday, November 18, 10:00 pm ET. CBSSN
Arena: Viejas Arena in San Diego, California
Few complaints can be had from Gonzaga (3-0) two weeks into this college basketball season, with their blowout win over Baylor on opening night certainly the headliner. There were a few moving parts in the offseason, but this roster looks just as strong as any recent Bulldogs squad, with this team averaging more than 100 points per game.
Senior guard Khalif Battle (17.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has proven to be a fantastic addition to this offense after transferring from Arkansas for his final collegiate season. Four other Bulldogs are averaging double-digit points per game, with point guard Ryan Nembhard (10.7 ppg, 10.0 apg) averaging a double-double through three games. The team is also getting great production from Braden Huff (16.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg) off the bench, as the sophomore looks to become a major weapon in the frontcourt.
At time of writing, Gonzaga sits #4 in the AP Top 25, though that may change before this game is played on Monday. The Bulldogs are 3rd in KenPom while leading the nation in offensive efficiency, something that isn’t a surprise after their hot start to the season. Their start hasn’t been perfect, with temporary struggle against Arizona State last week, but this team is unquestionably a real contender.
Defending their home court, San Diego State (2-0) is looking to make a major impression early on this season. This program was in the national championship game just two seasons ago and have used elite defense and tough play to make headlines on a regular basis. After all, the Aztecs went to Spokane and beat Gonzaga last year, but will this new-look roster fare similarly at home?
Sophomore guard Miles Byrd had 20 points and 8 rebounds on opening night, but is questionable with an injury. Instead, the Aztecs might be leaning heavily against on fellow sophomore BJ Davis (13.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg), another returning piece taking on a much bigger role this season. San Diego State also looks for production from transfer addition Nick Boyd (10.5 ppg, 3.5 apg), while 7-footer Magoon Gwath (8.5 ppg) is expected to take a major step forward as a sophomore with the Aztecs.
San Diego State sits just 50th in the KenPom ratings and aren’t yet close to being nationally ranked. This Aztecs squad has significant talent; it’s just about realizing that talent and getting healthy. We’ve seen the potential in young pieces like Byrd and Gwath already, it’s just a question of how this team and this elite defense holds up against such a major challenge.
Gonzaga is a significantly tougher opponent than what these Aztecs have seen this season. We’ve already seen the Bulldogs shined multiple times on the national stage and possess the strongest offense that San Diego State will face this season. At this current moment in time, it’s easy to look at this matchup and anticipate a fourth straight win for Gonzaga, though that’s not the whole story.
The one major advantage for the Aztecs is playing this game at their home arena, though this benefit didn’t help the Bulldogs last season. The Aztecs definitely need Byrd in this lineup, but in his absence will likely need a special performance from Davis or Boyd on offense. They aren’t likely to give up 100 points, but it’s all about if San Diego State has the offense to keep up with a stronger and more experienced lineup. We’re not expecting it, but weirder things have happened in this sport.
Prediction: Gonzaga 78, San Diego State 70