TV Schedule: Wednesday, November 20, 9:00 pm ET (SEC Network)
Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC in Birmingham, Alabama
When the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet on Wednesday evening it will be the only matchup of the day featuring teams from power conferences. Illinois hasn’t faced a power conference opponent yet this season and sits at 3-0 on the year. While Alabama is coming off a hard-fought game at Purdue where the Tide fell to 3-1 on the season with an 87-78 loss to the Boilermakers.
Alabama will need to bounce back to get past its first loss of this young season. The Crimson Tide have one of the top offenses in college basketball this season, averaging 87 points per game. Alabama, unsurprisingly, has relied heavily on its three-point shooting so far this season. The Tide are averaging 28 attempts from deep this season, but only making 30.4 percent of those attempts. It is important to remember that, due to injuries, Alabama has been without Chris Youngblood and Houston Mallette this season. Youngblood and Mallette both made 41 percent from three a year ago, so the Tide’s offense might be even better once they are added to the lineup.
Even with the three-point struggles through the first four games this season, Alabama has been one of the most efficient scoring teams in the country. The Crimson Tide are making 48.1 percent from the floor and an incredible 63.8 percent from two this season. Against Purdue, a team known for its size, Alabama scored 38 points in the paint and went 12-17 on layups.
Alabama will need big games from Mark Sears (17.3 ppg) and Grant Nelson (12.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg) to keep pace with Illinois high powered offense, but more importantly, the Tide will need a huge defensive performance to lessen the pressure on its offense. The addition of Clifford Omoruyi (9.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.5 bpg) has helped improve the defense this season, Alabama is allowing 71 points per game to opponents this season, down from 81.2 last year.
Illinois hasn’t been tested in any meaningful way yet this season, with its closest win being by 12 points against Oakland the last time the Illini took the court. Illinois struggled from deep, only making seven threes after averaging more than 15 made threes in the first two games.
Much like Alabama, Illinois likes to push the pace and take a ton of threes. So far this season the Illini are averaging 35 attempts from deep and are making 36.2 percent of those shots. Illinois’s leading scorer Will Riley (17.7 ppg) is also the team's top three-point shooter this season. He is making 69.2 percent from deep on just over four attempts per game.
Illinois big man Tomislav Ivisic (17.3 ppg, 9.0 rpg) has provided a large portion of the team's interior scoring this season. He has made 71.4 percent of his shots from inside the three-point arc this season on seven attempts per game. Riley is the only other player on Illinois’s roster that is averaging more than three attempts inside the arc. The Illini are all in on winning games from deep this season.
Head Coach Brad Underwood has this Illinois team defending extremely well this season. The Illini are giving up less than 60 points per game and allowing opponents to make only 35.1 percent from the floor and 23 percent from three. One big caveat to these defensive numbers is that Illinois hasn’t played a power conference opponent, so these numbers could change drastically after this matchup.
I fully expect this game to be fast-paced with a ton of made threes. Illinois is averaging nearly 13 made threes this season, while Alabama is averaging 8.5. The area where I think will make the biggest impact is scoring at the rim. Illinois is making 14.7 shots from two. In contrast, Alabama is making 20.3 shots from inside the three-point arc. And with this game being in Birmingham, essentially an Alabama home game, I think the Tide will pull out a win against Illinois, bouncing back from its first loss of the season in a big way.