Coming into the NCAA Tournament, Illinois had won four of its last five games, including two huge wins against Michigan and Purdue. Its only loss over that time was in the Big Ten Tournament to Maryland. In their first game, the Illini held off a scrappy Xavier team, 86-73, to advance to the round of the 32 for the fourth time in the last five years. Brad Underwood has turned this Illinois program into a consistent tournament team over the previous five years, but the Illini would often flame out on the first weekend. However, last year, Underwood led his team to the Regional Finals and has his team positioned to make yet another run this season.
Kentucky also saw some success at the end of the regular season, winning its two final games before going 1-1 in the SEC Tournament. In their first NCAA Tournament game, it took the Wildcats a while to settle in before ultimately pulling away from a good Troy team, beating the Trojans 76-57. After last year's first-round loss to Oakland, this win was much needed for the program's confidence. This was also Mark Pope’s first NCAA Tournament victory of his career. Now that Kentucky has cleared its first hurdle, it has its sights on advancing past the second round for the first time since 2019.
This will be the first time since 1984 that Illinois and Kentucky will meet on the hardwood. The Wildcats defeated the Illini in that Elite Eight game 54-51 and advanced to the final four. This year, these two teams are meeting much earlier in the tournament, looking to secure a spot in the Sweet 16. Illinois has lost its last three games against Kentucky dating back to 1982, but will this be the year that Illinois finally takes down the Wildcats?
How to watch Illinois vs Kentucky
- Date: Sunday, March 23
- Time: 5:15 pm ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Steaming: fubo TV
- Illinois record: 22-12
- Kentucky record: 23-11
Illinois vs Kentucky odds, spread, and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Money line:
- Illinois -120
- Kentucky +100
Spread:
- Illinois -1.5 (-110)
- Kentucky +1.5 (-110)
Total:
- 169.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Illinois injury report
- None
Kentucky injury report
- Jaxson Robinson - Out
- Kerr Kriisa - Out
Illinois and Kentucky series history
- Illinois all-time record vs Kentucky: 4-11
Illinois vs Kentucky prediction
The last time that Illinois and Kentucky played, the three-point line hadn’t been introduced to the college game, so the number of threes that will be attempted in this game would have been completely unimaginable 40 years ago. Illinois attempts 30 per game, while Kentucky is just under 26 per game. However, the Wildcats hold the edge from deep making 37.4 percent from three, hitting 9.6 per game. Illinois isn’t far behind on the number of threes made per game with 9.4, but the Illini are far less efficient from behind the arc, connecting on 31.4 percent. The player to watch from behind the arc is Koby Brea. The Kentucky guard is hitting an impressive 44 percent from deep, making 2.6 threes per game.
Illinois’ defense is the key to this matchup. The Illini don’t get a ton of stops, but compared to what we’ve seen from Kentucky most of the season, they look like an outstanding defense. Brad Underwood’s squad isn’t going to pressure the ball and force a bunch of turnovers. Illinois only forces 9.1 turnovers per game and gets 4.3 steals - both of which rank toward the bottom of D1. What this defense does do is rebound the ball exceptionally well - Illinois ranks No. 2 in the country with 42.6 rebounds per game. The Illini have also been a solid perimeter defense, holding opponents to 6.7 made threes per game, which might decide this matchup.
With Kentucky’s defense being nothing more than an unattended turnstile, the Wildcats have attempted to disrupt opponents by applying pressure and forcing turnovers. Kentucky averages nearly seven steals per game while forcing just over 10 turnovers. Illinois has proven to be turnover-prone this season, coughing up the ball nearly 12 times per game. Though, with Lamont Butler back healthy for the Wildcats, the permitter defense has taken a step forward.
Illinois’s offense has been great all season and is led by a trio of freshmen in scoring - Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 ppg), Will Riley (12.8 ppg), Tomislav Ivisic (12.8 ppg) account for nearly half of Illinois scoring averaging. Meanwhile, Kentucky is much more balanced and is led by a whole host of upperclassmen in scoring, with Otega Oweh (16.4 ppg) doing a large chunk of it.
If Illinois can slow down this high-powered Kentucky offense, then the Illini should walk away with the win. But there are two major concerns for Brad Underwood’s squad. First is relying almost solely on freshmen to get you through the tournament. The other is, what happens if the defense can’t contain Kentucky? It would be easy to pick Illinois to win this one if the Illini did a little more to disrupt opposing offenses. If you aren’t going to pressure this Kentucky team and take away possessions, then the Wildcats will make you pay. This should be a wildly entertaining game with a ton of threes attempted, but not forcing Kentucky into turnovers is an easy way to end up on the losing end.