It’s amazing how one shot can alter the trajectory of a season. Midway through the 2nd half Thursday night, the Wolverines trailed Rutgers 74-62 and it looked like their recent struggles against Michigan State and Nebraska were turning into a serious concern. Dusty May’s squad managed to pull within 1, and Nimari Burnett took care of the rest at the buzzer. Despite three straight games of troubling team performance (to say the least), the Wolverines will nonetheless be riding a wave of momentum into Sunday.
The Illini have had recent struggles of their own, losing three of their last four. Illinois is currently an 8-seed in Joe Lunardi’s NCAA Bracketology (18-11 on the year), but a win in Ann Arbor Sunday would all but cement their at-large bid to the dance. Led by freshman Kasparus Jakucionas (15.3 PPG) and sophomores Tomislav Ivisic (12.8 PPG), the Illini suffered three straight losses last week to Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Duke by an average margin of 26 points.
Momentum is key in March, and both Michigan and Illinois are desperately trying to establish a wave heading into the Big Ten tournament.
How to watch Illinois vs. Michigan
- Date: Sunday, March 2
- Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
- Venue: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+,
- Illinois record: 18-11
- Michigan record: 22-6
Illinois vs. Michigan odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Illinois +115
- Michigan -140
Spread
- Illinois +2.5 (-110)
- Michigan -2.5 (-110)
Total
- 158.5 (over -110/under -110)
Illinois injury report
- Morez Johnson, F: Out (wrist)
- Ty Rodgers, G: Out (redshirt)
Michigan injury report
- Rubin Jones, G: Questionable (undisclosed)
- Sam Walters, F: Out (back)
Michigan and Illinois series history
- Michigan all-time record vs. Illinois: 63-70
Illinois vs. Michigan prediction
The Illini are 2nd in the nation in rebounds per game (45.7), while the Wolverines are 58th in that category and have allowed 28 total offensive rebounds over their last three games. Illinois (22nd) is also ahead of Michigan (24th) in KenPom’s Overall Net Rating. Michigan has a habit of playing close games (16 of their 28 games played have been decided by 4 points or less), and I suspect Sunday’s game will be no exception.
Free throws usually play a big factor in winning close games, yet the Wolverines have proven to be an anomaly this year. Despite shooting just 72% from the charity stripe, Michigan is 12-4 in games decided by 4 points or less. The pendulum could swing both ways: it’s either unsustainable and regression to the mean is inevitable, or it’s a reflection of a good team finding ways to win.
Either way, I think Roddy Gayle Jr. will give Jakucionis problems with his defense, and the inexperienced Illini big men will have trouble with Michigan’s “Area 50-1” combo of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. Look for the Wolverines to ride the momentum from Nimari Burnett’s buzzer beater and the home crowd to another close win on Sunday.
Prediction: Michigan 84, Illinois 79