A pair of Midwestern programs will clash in Milwaukee on Friday night, as the 6-seed Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) look to fend off the 11-seed Xavier Musketeers (22-11). The Musketeers are riding a wave of fresh momentum after a come-from-behind victory in the First Four over Texas, but still enter this one as slight underdogs according to Vegas.
Despite the seed disparity, these two teams have been heading in different directions for much of the last couple months. Xavier used a seven-game winning streak, before a loss in the Big East quarterfinals to Marquette, to gain entry to the field. Illinois, on the other hand, has struggled to stay consistent since the calendar has flipped to 2025, with the Duke loss at Madison Square Garden a low point. However, the Illini also seem to be figuring things out at the right time, winning four straight before their defeat at the hands of Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament.
Brad Underwood's club is fresh off an Elite Eight run a year ago, and still has the ingredients for an extended March stay. This date with Xavier will be the perfect test to see where they're at, and whether they can advance, before a potential date with Kentucky awaits in the next round for the winner.
How to watch #6 Illinois vs. #11 Xavier
- Date: Friday, March 21
- Time: 9:45 pm EST
- Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
- Illinois record: 21-12
- Xavier record: 22-11
Illinois vs. Xavier odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Illinois -156
- Xavier +130
Spread
- Illinois -3.5 (-105)
- Xavier +3.5 (-115)
Total
- 159.5 (O -115/U -105)
Illinois Injury Report
- N/A
Xavier Injury Report
- G Trey Green - Out (knee)
- F Lassina Traore - Out (knee)
Illinois and Xavier series history
- Xavier vs. Illinois: 2-1
#6 Illinois vs. 11 Xavier prediction
Xavier played one of their most complete games of the season in the First Four win over Texas. They put up 86 points on 55% shooting, went 12-25 from three, and turned the ball over seven times. They are ready for this to be a shootout against an Illini team that has always put up big offensive numbers under Underwood.
Marcus Foster was the star of the show for the Musketeers in that opener, and he'll set up a fun guard battle between himself and the Illini's Kasparas Jakucionis. Yet, it feels like the real difference is going to come down to the battle of the posts. This game may not come to who scores the most points in the paint, but who affords their team the most second chances, and who forces the other into more difficult perimeter shots.
Zach Freemantle was a great story in the opening win over Texas, with an emphatic jam to cap off the win, but it feels like Illinois still holds the advantage in the paint. Between Will Riley and Tomislav Ivisic, the Illini have a duo that can alter shots and maintain the necessary activity they need around the rim. If they can take care of the ball, and assuming Xavier cools down just enough, the Illini should secure a trip to the second round.
Prediction: No. 6 Illinois, 76 No. 11 Xavier, 70