TV schedule: Friday, January 31, 8:00 pm ET. FOX
Arena: Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana
Recent results have been unkind for Indiana (14-7), as the Hoosiers got the season started off solidly but have now dropped four of their last five games. They were run out of the gym against Illinois and Iowa earlier this month and dropped another very winnable home game last time out against Maryland. There are definite problems with the Hoosiers this season, though the season isn’t quite lost yet.
The big playmaker for the Hoosiers has been Oumar Ballo (14.5 ppg, 10.2 rpg), the former Arizona center who’s put up great production this season in his final collegiate campaign. The 7-footer is one of the most efficient scorers and rebounders in the Big Ten. Sophomore Mackenzie Mgbako (12.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) has shown some signs of brilliance in his second year with the Hoosiers while fellow sophomore Myles Rice (12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.1 apg) has been an all-around contributor after winning Pac-12 Rookie of the Year at Washington State last season.
A team in great shape even a few weeks ago, Indiana now sits just 62nd in KenPom and 68th in the NET, with the NCAA Tournament looking like a pipe dream with the way they’ve been playing. Having Ballo and Mgbako in the frontcourt is a great tool, but the long-range shooting has been pretty unsuccessful, especially in recent weeks. Indiana desperately needs more from their backcourt weapons and their defense.
On the other hand, Purdue (16-5) has been riding a relative hot streak, now winners of eight of their last nine games. This isn’t quite the same team that made last season’s national championship game, but a lot of talent did come back and big wins over Alabama, Ole Miss, and Oregon have resulted. Most impressive was last week’s 27-point drubbing over Michigan.
Filling some very big shoes, Trey Kaufman-Renn (18.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) has really stepped up in a major way, as the junior forward has developed into one of the best frontcourt players in the Big Ten. A lot of the production on this roster is thanks to junior guard Braden Smith (15.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 8.9 apg), who continues to establish himself as one of the best point guards in the nation. Fellow junior guard Fletcher Loyer (14.0 ppg, 2.2 rpg) is having another standout season, making nearly 47% of his 3-pointers to this point.
Purdue enters play at #10 in the AP Top 25, though they’re faring better in the other metrics, coming in at 7th in KenPom and 9th in the most recently updated NET. The defense has had some solid moments but this offense remains efficient and balanced. Having Smith leading the charge is an extremely important weapon but Kaufman-Renn’s development is a big reason Purdue is one of the favorites to win the Big Ten.
Based on how these teams have played in recent weeks, it’s very easy to favor the Boilermakers right off the bat. They’re playing at home and have a more balanced roster that can hit outside shots and defend better, but rivalry games tend to mean anything can happen. After all, these Hoosiers surprised Zach Edey and company a few times in recent years.
The battles between Kaufman-Renn and Ballo tell a lot about this matchup. If Indiana can find consistent scoring and shooting from somebody else, then they can get back some momentum on a season that’s trending in a bad direction. However, we don’t quite see the Boilermakers getting riled at home, so expect a nice game from Smith and decent play from both of these centers in the paint.
Prediction: Purdue 75, Indiana 65