Texas added the nation’s No. 1 recruit to an already talented roster, and Joe Lunardi now believes the Longhorns could make a serious run at the 2027 Final Four. College basketball teams do not begin playing meaningful games for several more months, but Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update has already provided plenty to discuss.
Lunardi released his newest projections for the expanded 76-team 2027 NCAA Tournament field, placing Florida, Duke, Illinois and defending national champion Michigan on the four No. 1 seed lines. Florida earned the distinction of being the top overall seed.
However, the most interesting team in the bracket might be Texas.
The Longhorns moved onto the No. 2 seed line after Marcus Spears Jr., the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2027 class, reclassified and joined Sean Miller’s roster for the upcoming season. Lunardi believes Spears could be the missing piece that transforms Texas from an intriguing team into a legitimate Final Four contender.
Texas has become Joe Lunardi’s offseason bracket riser
Lunardi compared the Longhorns’ summer ascent to Michigan’s rise before its national championship season.
The Wolverines added Yaxel Lendeborg from UAB and spent much of the offseason ranked higher in Bracketology than many people expected. Lendeborg ultimately became the centerpiece of a roster that won the national championship.
Spears faces a different challenge as an incoming freshman, but the comparison illustrates how dramatically his decision changed the outlook in Austin.
Miller had already assembled a dangerous roster around transfers David Punch, Isaiah Johnson and Elyjah Freeman. Texas also added top-50 freshmen Austin Goosby and Bo Ogden before Spears reclassified.
Lunardi now has Texas as the No. 2 seed in the South Region, where the Longhorns would open against either Robert Morris or Navy. Illinois is the region’s top seed, with Kansas and Virginia occupying the No. 4 and No. 3 lines.
Texas was expected to improve during Miller’s second season. A projected No. 2 seed suggests the Longhorns could be ready to compete for much more than an NCAA Tournament appearance.
Florida, Duke, Illinois and Michigan lead the field
Florida holds the top overall seed and headlines the East Region. The Gators are joined by No. 2 Louisville, No. 3 UConn and No. 4 Purdue.
Duke is the No. 1 seed in a loaded Midwest Region featuring No. 2 Michigan State, No. 3 Alabama and No. 4 Houston. Kentucky, St. John’s and North Carolina also appear in that region.
Michigan leads the West after winning the national championship. Arizona, Arkansas and Gonzaga round out the region’s top four seeds.
The projections also show how difficult the road could be for teams from the SEC and Big Ten. Both conferences placed 12 teams in Lunardi’s field, leading all leagues. The Big 12 earned 10 bids, while the ACC and Big East each received seven.
That means nearly two-thirds of the projected field comes from the five most represented conferences.
The expanded NCAA Tournament creates a crowded bubble
The move to a 76-team field adds another layer to the traditional bubble conversation.
Oklahoma State is Lunardi’s final team in the tournament. The Cowboys are joined by Marquette, Arizona State and Clemson as the last four teams in the field.
LSU sits on the wrong side of the cut as the first team out, followed by Maryland, Cincinnati and West Virginia. Florida State, Mississippi State, Utah State and Virginia Tech make up the next four out.
Texas A&M, Ohio State, Creighton and NC State are the final four teams to avoid the expanded opening round.
There will be countless changes before Selection Sunday, but Texas has already made the biggest move of the summer. Miller inherited a rebuilding project when he arrived in Austin. With Spears joining an experienced group of transfers and promising freshmen, Lunardi believes the Longhorns are suddenly operating on a Final Four timeline.
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