The latest Big 12 matchup between Kansas and Baylor engages in Waco on Saturday; will the Bears get a much needed home win or do the Jayhawks grab this one on the road?
TV schedule: Saturday, February 1, 4:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas
It’s hard to be super disappointed if you’re Kansas (15-5) at this point in the season, but a lack of excitement is also understandable. The Jayhawks have already lost three games in Big 12 play and have had some really close calls as well, beating UCF by just four points in their last game after beating those Knights by more than 50 less than a month earlier. However, this team did beat Duke and Michigan State back in November and could have real potential in March.
The tale for Kansas definitely starts with All-American center Hunter Dickinson (16.3 ppg, 9.9 rpg), who’s having another remarkable season leading the charge for the Jayhawks. The seven-footer is doing wonders, but certainly needs more help from the rest of this roster. One excellent new weapon has been Zeke Mayo (15.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.0 apg), the South Dakota State transfer that’s become the most reliable secondary weapon for Bill Self. This team also leans heavily on Dajuan Harris Jr. (9.6 ppg, 5.8 apg), one of the craftiest point guards in the nation.
Kansas comes into play at #11 in the AP Top 25 but are actually 9th in KenPom and 8th in the NET rankings. In a year where the SEC dominates headlines, the Jayhawks own a Top 5 defense in the efficiency metrics and very solidly sit as the 3rd best team in the Big 12. There’s a lot to like about what Dickinson brings to the table, not to mention the rise of freshman Flory Bidunga and other pieces in this frontcourt. However, this team just doesn’t shoot or make 3-pointers, with Mayo the only reliable shooter from outside the arc.
Circumstances aren’t much better at Baylor (13-7), as the Bears are really in need of a breakthrough performance. Right now, St. John’s is the only great win on the Bears’ resume. This team has had some great performances on offense but we’ve seen the defense let them down, much like in this week’s overtime loss against BYU. At just 5-4 in Big 12 play, Baylor needs to start turning the tide or they’re going to find themselves fighting the bubble in a month.
New faces galore populate Scott Drew’s lineup, led by former Miami forward Norchad Omier (15.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg), who remains one of the best rebounders in the game and has made 64% of his shot attempts from inside the arc. Freshman guard VJ Edgecombe (14.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has also made a great impression with the Bears, making 39% of his 3-pointers and setting himself up for a professional future next season. Fellow freshman Robert Wright (12.5 ppg, 4.8 apg) is growing more into a leader in this offense with decent shooting numbers as well.
You won’t find Baylor in the national rankings though they’re not missing by much, coming in at 26th in KenPom and 29th in the NET. We mentioned that offense and it ranks 10th in KenPom in the efficiency metrics, though the defense is what lets them down more times than not. This team did give up 101 to Gonzaga on opening night and really got mashed in the paint against BYU this week, which isn’t exactly a great omen.
Neither team is desperate, but both programs really want this victory. Recently a matchup of the Big 12’s two best programs, these teams may have been surpassed by Houston and Iowa State but still should give us an exciting contest. Dickinson matching up with Omier will be a very entertaining matchup in the paint, though it may be those other players who truly decide the result.
Kansas wins on the road if they can get contributions from beyond those three players, needing someone like Rylen Griffen to have a consistent effort and put points on the board. Baylor holds serve on their home floor if they take care of the basketball and limit second-chance opportunities. We won’t be surprised either way this game goes, though the slight lean is towards the Bears handling their business at home if they come out hungry.
Prediction: Baylor 74, Kansas 71