Kentucky is coming off a dominant 95-64 win over LSU in its final home game of the season. And even though the Wildcats have struggled with injuries most of the season, Kentucky has been good enough to stay in the top half of the conference and hold on to a top-20 ranking. Mark Pope has his defensive leader, Lamont Butler, back but will be without one of his top offensive threats, Jaxson Robinson, for the remainder of the season.
Not everything has been great for Missouri over the past few weeks. The Tigers have started to slump a little in recent games - losing its last two games coming into the matchup with the Wildcats. On Wednesday, Missouri took on former Big 12 rival Oklahoma in Norman and couldn't sweep the season series over the Sooners. The Tigers came out flat on the defensive end and struggled to get stops all night. Missouri fell behind early and wasn’t able to pull off the late-game comeback, ultimately dropping the game 96-84.
Kentucky has started to right the ship at the perfect moment, while Missouri is starting to drift in the wrong direction. A win on Saturday would be huge for both teams. Not only for a possible NCAA Tournament bump but for a more favorable seed in the SEC tournament. Missouri has been great at home this season, but Kentucky is more than willing to play the role of spoiler on the Tigers’ Senior Day.
How to watch Kentucky vs Missouri
- Date: Saturday, March 08
- Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mizzou Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Steaming: fubo TV
- Kentucky record: 20-10 (9-8)
- Missouri record: 21-9 (10-7)
Kentucky vs Missouri odds, spread, and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Money Line
- Kentucky +168
- Missouri -205
Spread
- Kentucky +5.5 (-115)
- Missouri -5.5 (-105)
Total
- 169.5 (over -110/under -110)
Kentucky injury report
- Kerr Kriisa, G: Out (wrist)
- Jaxson Robinson, G: Out (wrist)
Missouri injury report
- None
Kentucky and Missouri series history
- Kentucky's all-time record vs. Missouri 15-3
Kentucky vs Missouri prediction
Kentucky has been great on offense all year, even with the multiple injuries that have popped up throughout conference play. But the biggest concern is Kentucky’s inability to get stops on the defensive end of the court. Lamont Butler has returned to the lineup, but he alone hasn’t completely solved the team's defensive issues. The Wildcats are giving up 81 points per game in league play, and have only held one opponent to under 80 points in their last four games. Offensively, the best path to victory runs through the paint. Everyone knows Kentucky can light it up from deep, but the Wildcats are averaging just over 35 points in the paint this season. Missouri hasn’t been able to keep teams out of the paint recently, which is something Kentucky should look to take advantage of. Look for Otega Oweh to have a big game.
Much like Kentucky, Missouri has been great offensively this season. The Tigers are averaging nearly 85 points per game and have scored more than 100 points in each of their last two home games. Caleb Grill and Mark Mitchell have put up huge scoring numbers over the past few weeks, and Dennis Gates will need stellar offensive performances from them to get past a great Kentucky offense. Missouri hasn’t been a great defensive team as of late, giving up at least 90 points to four of its last five opponents. But one thing this Missouri team does incredibly well is force turnovers. On the season the Tigers have forced 10 or more turnovers in all but three games. Missouri doesn’t need to play lock down defense, but its absolutely has to force Kentucky into turnovers.
In what should be a high-scoring game, Mizzou’s ability to force turnovers and get a couple of timely stops should help the Tigers prevail. Missouri has an incredible 18-1 record at home this season and has taken down some of the best teams in the country on its home court. Kentucky’s offense should keep the game close, but I have a hard time imagining the Wildcats slowing down Missouri's offense enough to get the upset win, especially in front of a sold-out Mizzou Arena crowd.