Kentucky has battled injuries all season to make it to the NCAA Tournament for the 63rd time in school history. The Wildcats, when healthy, are one of the best teams in the country, but as they have been all season, are entering the tournament down a couple of key pieces. However, that hasn’t slowed Mark Pope’s crew much this season. Kentucky won 10 games in a deep SEC and finished the season winning three of its final five games. Kentucky has bowed out of the tournament in the first round the last two times it was a top-three seed, but Pope hopes to take this team well past the first weekend.
Troy wasn’t expected to be in the NCAA Tournament this season. The Trojans were picked to finish third in the Sun Belt preseason poll, but Troy dominated the Sun Belt Tournament to steal the auto bid - winning all three games by double-digits. In doing so, the Trojans return to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in school history and for the first time since 2017. Troy lost in the first round in both of its previous appearances, but the Trojans are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, and it couldn’t be crazy for Scott Cross’s crew to pull off an upset, winning its first NCAA Tournament game in program history.
How to watch Kentucky vs Troy
- Date: Friday, March 21
- Time: 7:10 pm ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Steaming: fubo TV
- Kentucky record: 22-11
- Troy record: 23-10
Kentucky vs Troy odds, spread, and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Money line:
- Kentucky -650
- Troy +460
Spread:
- Kentucky -11.5 (-105)
- Troy +11.5 (-115)
Total:
- 152.5 (O-106/U-114)
Kentucky injury report
- Jaxson Robinson - Out
- Kerr Kriisa - Out
Troy injury report
- N/A
Kentucky and Troy series history
- Kentucky all-time record vs Troy: 1-0
Kentucky vs Troy prediction
Kentucky hopes to avoid the embarrassment it felt following the upset loss to Oakland in the first round of last year's tournament. The Wildcats were also a 3-seed a year ago, but a new coach and a new roster should get Kentucky over the hump. Kentucky's size advantage across the board should help defensively. But for most of the season, Kentucky’s defense has been downright terrible, though with Lamont Butler finally being healthy, the defense should take a step forward.
Offensively, there have been very few concerns this season. Kentucky is absolutely lethal from deep, the Wildcats are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country making nearly 10 per game at a 37.4 percent clip. And it doesn’t hurt that Koby Brea is making nearly 44 percent from behind the arc. While Kentucky might not be the most athletic team in the tournament, junior guard Otega Oweh is ridiculously athletic and is nearly impossible to keep out of the paint.
Troy’s defense, which has been its strength all season, might be a little out of its depths against this Kentucky offense. The Trojans have only allowed 70 or more points 11 times this season, which is great for any team, but the level of competition wasn't anywhere close to what they will see against the Wildcats. However, if Troy’s defense does hold up, they could very easily send Kentucky home early for the fourth straight season. Troy protects the rim well for an undersized team, but its ability to force turnovers is what makes this team dangerous. On the season, Troy forced nearly 14 turnovers per game, with 9.4 of them coming off steals.
Offensively, the Trojans are solid, but not great. Tayton Conerway leads the team in scoring with 14.3 points per game, and Myles Rigsby adds 12 per game, but no other Trojan is scoring in double figures. Troy excels in two areas when it has the ball - scoring inside the three-point arc and getting to the free-throw line. On the season, Troy makes 55 percent from two and gets to the line 22 times per game, but one concern is its three-point shooting. Troy is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, making just under 30 percent from deep.
If Troy’s defense can’t slow down Kentucky’s offense, then this one could get out of hand quickly. While Troy could force a ton of turnovers and out-rebound its Sun Belt opponents, its lack of size and inexperience will probably limit what the Trojans can do in this game. If Kentucky gets out to a big lead early, it's hard to imagine Troy having enough offensive firepower to shoot its way back into the game. But pulling off the upset isn’t impossible, especially against Kentucky in recent years. Realistically, this shouldn’t be a close game. Kentucky is clearly the better team, but it will be up to the Wildcats to play like it.