The brackets are coming, and Selection Sunday is only a few short weeks away, but before the festivities commence, the brackets are filled. It is time once again for Championship Week. Over the next two weeks, the 32 automatic qualifiers into the NCAA Tournament will punch their ticket to the Main Event for the College Basketball Season.
I know if you are a fan of a team on the bubble, this can be a very stressful week, especially if your favorite team is on the outside looking in or one of the last 4 in. Hopefully, the bid stealers are minimal. If you are a fan of a team from a one-bid league, here is your chance to make a splash and qualify for the NCAA Tournament, some teams potentially for the first time.
You all know how it works already, though. What you may not know is who is going to win each conference tournament and who will be guaranteed to hear their name called on Selection Sunday? Here are the teams likely to hear their names called, or the ones I think will. I will give you the winner, and then the sleeper pick to watch for. Done in two parts, and part 1 covers the first week of championship week.
America East
March 7th-14th
Campus Sites
Top Seed: UMBC Retrievers
Winner: UMBC Retreivers
It is always a bold pick to select the top seed to make the NCAA Tournament in some of these one-bid leagues. Why? These tournaments are usually crazy and full of upsets. The America East reseeds the tournament, and the higher seed always gets the home game, so as long as the Retrievers keep winning, they will have the easiest path to the NCAA Tournament automatic bid. It would be UMBC's first autobid since upsetting Virginia as a 16 seed.
Sleeper: UMass Lowell River Hawks
The River Hawks should always be considered a sleeper in the America East, simply because head coach Pat Duquette has guided his team to the league tournament finals before. Lowell has won 4 out of 5 heading into the final week of the season, and they do have a lot of talent, but they ended up the 4 seed because their flaws outweigh their strengths. Lowell is one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country and turns the ball over way too much. The River Hawks do have a shot, but need to clean up those two flaws to make a run at the title.
Atlantic Sun
March 4th-8th
VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL
Top Seed: Central Arkansas Bears
Winner: Central Arkansas Bears
This has already been the best season in Bears Division 1 history. Central Arkansas could make it a season of destiny by winning the Atlantic Sun conference and making its first NCAA Tournament ever. The Bears have the best player in the league in Camren Hunter, and when he is rolling, there are few scorers better in the NCAA. Hunter leads the offense and will get the baskets when the Bears need one, but he is surrounded by knock-down shooters who can extend a lead quickly. This is the year for the Bears.
Sleeper: West Georgia Wolves
The Wolves are not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they are still in their transition to Division 1, but the Atlantic Sun has allowed them to play in the conference tournament. The Wolves don’t play much defense, but they still have huge sleeper potential because Shelton Williams-Dryden leads the Atlantic Sun in scoring. Anytime you have the player who leads the league in scoring and does it by getting to the foul line and getting teams in foul trouble, you will have a chance. West Georgia can be a dangerous team in the league tournament.
Big Sky
March 7th-11th
Idaho Central Arena in Boise, ID
Top Seed: Portland State Vikings-as of 02/28
Winner: Portland State Vikings
Let’s not overthink this. The Big Sky can be chaotic, but there haven't been many teams that have dominated the league like Portland State has this year. The Vikings play an old-school brand of basketball, in which they do not shoot many threes and take a ton of two-point shots by driving into the lane. The offense is efficient but not flashy. The efficient offense, combined with the best defense in the Big Sky that doesn’t allow opponents much breathing room, equals a team that dominated league play and should do so again in the conference tournament. Defense wins championships.
Sleeper: Montana Grizzlies
It is weird seeing Montana as a sleeper when the Grizzlies have dominated the league under current head coach Travis DeCurie.If anyone knows what it takes to make a run in the conference tournament, it is Montana. Money Williams leads the league in scoring. If the Grizzlies want a realistic chance to make the NCAA Tournament, Williams will have to be just as good as he was last season in the Big Sky tournament run to the NCAA Tournament.
Big South
March 4th-8th
Freedom Hall Civic Center in Johnson City, TN
Top Seed: High Point Panthers
Winner: Winthrop Eagles
Honestly, the Big South tournament always has a ton of surprises, so there may be some unexpected things that happen in this tournament. Even with that, Winthrop is still the best team in the Big South, even if they didn’t win the regular season. The Eagles have close losses at Auburn and at Nebraska. Winthrop is the only team to beat High Point and has played them close both times. The two are headed for a collision course in the league finals, and give me the team with the two best players in the league, in Logan Duncomb and Kareem Rozier. The Eagles are one of those teams that are going to be a trendy upset pick if they make the dance.
Sleeper: Longwood Lancers
The two top teams in the Big South have displayed a level of domination that makes it hard to believe anyone other than those two schools will play for the conference championship. As I mentioned earlier, this tournament has made way for some chaos, so in a full-on chaos scenario, Longwood would be the team I have chosen to come out victorious, given their win this season over Winthrop. It doesn’t hurt that the Lancers have built the team and have won games on the backs of no three-point shooting. Anything can happen in these tournaments.
Coastal Athletic
March 6th-10th
CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C.Â
Top Seed: UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Winner: UNC Wilmington Seahawks
This has already been mentioned, but I don’t like picking the overall top seed because there is a ton of pressure on those teams to perform and win the tournament. However, given how much respect I have for the Seahawks and their ability to play smothering defense and bury conference opponents from the three-point line. UNC Wilmington is the obvious choice. They don’t shoot threes all that well, but when you average 35% as a team and are only allowing 29% from deep on defense, the games have a potential for a huge swing. The Seahawks do struggle from the free-throw line, so that is something to watch for if the games are close down the stretch.
Sleeper: William & Mary Tribe
William & Mary has never made the NCAA Tournament before, and because of that, they are always going to be the focus of Championship Week. This year, the Tribe has one of its best shots at winning the league tournament since the days of Nathan Knight. Head coach Dan Earl is known for his offense and his uptempo style, and that is exactly what you get from William & Mary. The Tribe leads the CAA in scoring and in just about every single offensive category. Then there is the defense, which is one of the worst in the CAA. The Tribe is comfortable in shootouts, and if they can get hot from the floor, they will make a deep run.
Horizon League
March 2nd-10th
Campus Sites and Corteva Coliseum in Indianapolis, IN
Top Seed: Wright State Raiders
Winner: Green Bay Phoenix
Doug Gottlieb has quietly been silencing the haters as the year continues. I was one of the loudest haters of the hire for Green Bay, because I didn’t think Gottlieb was all that serious about the job going into this year, but he has made a believer out of me. The Horizon League tournament always goes wild, and no one knows what is going to happen when this tournament kicks off. Green Bay can shoot; they have three stars and have played well in every game, but have had a hard time finishing. Finish games, and Green Bay will reach the promised land.
Sleeper: Detroit Mercy Titans
As mentioned above, the whole league is full of sleepers. Anyone can win this tournament, and no one would be surprised, especially given what usually happens. The Titans are a team much like Green Bay, capable of going from worst to first. Detroit Mercy leads the Horizon League in three-point shooting and rebounding, and is second in free throw shooting. All of those things will be important while trying to make a run. The defensive end gets a little dicey, but they do defend the three-point line well. The Titans are not going to have a problem scoring with anyone, especially when they are hitting threes.
MAAC
March 5th-10th
Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, NJ
Top Seed: Merrimack Warriors
Winner: Merrimack Warriors
Merrimack has been in this position before and has failed to make the NCAA Tournament, but this is the best Warriors team that head coach Joe Gallo has ever had. If you like defensive basketball, then Merrimack is the team for you. They play slow, physical, low-possession basketball. The Warriors are hard to play against, which explains why they have dominated the league. There are times when the offense doesn’t look great for Merrimack that could ultimately lead to an early exit in the conference tournament. Merrimack can’t waste its chance this year.
Sleeper: Quinnipiac Bobcats
Teams with the most talent don’t always win the conference regular season, but the beauty of championship week is that there is always a second chance to make the NCAA Tournament. The Bobcats are the most talented team in the MAAC and are going to try to make sure the rest of the league knows that. Amarri Monroe is the best player in the MAAC, and if he gets going, Quinnipiac is very hard to beat. It will be the first time Quinnipiac makes the tournament if they were to win the tournament.
Missouri Valley
March 5th-8th
Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, MO
Top Seed: Belmont Bruins
Winner: Belmont Bruins
Belmont is back to dominating again. The first few years in the Missouri Valley were not up to the Bruins' standards, but they won the Valley by about 4 games and are back to running one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Bruins can get after it on the offensive end. Belmont shoots 40 from deep, over 60% from two, over 50% from the floor, and averages 18 assists per night. All of those numbers lead the conference. The Bruins can stretch a lead quickly, and even though the turnover percentage is too high for my liking and the defense isn’t very good, no team in the Valley can outscore Belmont.
Sleeper: Valpo Beacons
The goal is to be playing your best basketball when March arrives, and Valpo has made sure that goal is met. The Beacons have rattled off five straight wins heading into Arch Madness, and they have the personnel to make a legitimate run at the Missouri Valley title and secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Valpo is making threes at over 35% in the league. Head coach Roger Powell doesn’t coach his team to take many, but when they do, they make them. The thing that separates the Beacons from the rest of the teams outside of Belmont is their ability to draw contact, get to the line, and make their free throws. The ability to close games is so important in a tournament. The Missouri Valley is not as cut-and-dry as it seems.
Northeast
March 4th-10th
Campus Sites
Top Seed: Long Island Sharks
Winner: Long Island Sharks
The Northeast conference is another conference that reseeds after the first round. That is good news for the Sharks, given that they will face the worst teams in the tournament on their home floor throughout the tournament. Long Island is currently 9-1 at home, but that wouldn’t matter in this instance. I would still pick the Sharks on a neutral site; they are the best team in the league with the most talent. Head coach Rod Strickland has only needed three seasons to bring the Long Island program back to glory. The Sharks should have no trouble running through the NEC, and are good enough to win their likely First Four game in the NCAA Tournament.
Sleeper: Wagner Seahawks
Let the record state that I do not believe anyone outside the top 4 teams can win this league. If someone were going to rise from the lower ranks to win the NEC, it would be Wagner. The Seahawks are not great and probably won’t be good enough to make the finals, but they do make enough threes that can turn a game on its head. Wagner turns the ball over a lot, and they don’t play great defense, so it isn’t likely going to happen, but conference tournaments have some crazy things happen.
Ohio Valley
March 4th-7th
Ford Center in Evansville, IN
Top Seed: Tennessee State Tigers
Winner: UT Martin Skyhawks
The adage that defense wins championships is truer than ever for UT Martin. The Skyhawks and their European roster don’t play very pretty basketball, but they do enough to win games.UT Martin will be in every game, even with the clunky offense, because of how solid the defense and rebounding are. The Skyhawks are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. When the defense is locked in, scoring 50 is a chore. Will the offense score enough for it to matter, though?
Sleeper: Lindenwood Lions
The Lions have an explosive offense led by three of the best guards in the Ohio Valley, and any one of them can go off for 30. The Lions' ability to put the ball in the basket never has them out of a game. Lindenwood doesn’t shoot the ball well from deep, and they rarely take threes. What they are good at is getting to the basket and running an efficient offense. Lindenwood has a strong chance to make a big run in the league tournament thanks to its offense. The only problem is that they have to win 4 games in 4 days.
Patriot League
March 3rd-11th
Campus Sites
Top Seed: Navy Midshipmen
Winner: Navy Midshipmen
Every year, the Patriot League has a team that runs away and hides from the rest of the league. Normally, that team is the Colgate Raiders, but this year it is Navy, and after being so close to making the NCAA Tournament over the last handful of years, the Midshipmen finally get it done. Navy has the Patriot League player of the year in Austin Benigni, and while the offense is excellent, everything points to the defense. They currently sport one of the best defenses in the entire sport. The Navy plays extremely slow, forcing teams to run a half-court offense and work for every shot. It would be a huge surprise if the Navy were to lose in the conference tournament.
Sleeper: American Eagles
As mentioned, the fact that I am choosing a sleeper here is more about the exercise than about American's reasonable ability to win the Patriot League. The Eagles have the experience to win the league tournament; they did so last year, and they also won the regular season. The Navy is just too good at the top for anyone to make a reasonable run at it.
Southland
March 8th-12th
Townsley Law Arena in Lake Charles, LA
Top Seed: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Winner: McNeese State Cowboys
It has been a while since the Cowboys have had legitimate competition in the Southland. That changed this year with Stephen F. Austin returning to their old conference.McNeese, even without Will Wade, has the team to return to the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row. The Cowboys have not changed much; they still have an extremely efficient offense, don’t shoot threes well, and make it almost impossible to run offense against their defense. McNeese forces about 15 turnovers a game, leads the league in blocked shots, steals, and shots allowed. They are going to be tough in the NCAA Tournament again.
Sleeper: New Orleans Privateers
New Orleans comes into the Southland Conference tournament as the hottest team in the league. The Privateers are also no strangers to winning big games, having done so all year long. On opening night, New Orleans outlasted TCU in Fort Worth, and they have also beaten Stephen F. Austin, Tulane, and UTRGV. Two of those wins are against two of the top three teams in the Southland and another bubble team. The offense is elite, but the defense is one of the worst in the country. New Orleans loves embracing the chaos to find wins.
Summit League
March 4th-8th
Sanford PREMIER Center in Sioux Falls, SD
Top Seed: North Dakota State BisonÂ
Winner: St. Thomas Tommies
There isn’t much not like about St. Thomas, and it has been that way since the Tommies joined Division 1. The offense is elite, and they are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. Elite offense is part of the deal in the Summit League, but it's the efficiency with which the Tommies run the offense that sets them apart from the rest of the league. St. Thomas has one of the better defenses in the Summit League. St. Thomas is going to win this tournament with offense, and when it is going well, the ball is moving, and the Tommies are very hard to stop.
Sleeper: Denver Pioneers
If aesthetically pleasing basketball is what you want to see, then Denver is the team for you watch. The Pioneers get up and down and the floor and run an extremely efficient offense. Denver constantly puts pressure on opponents and can outscore everyone they play. That is all great, but the problem with the Pioneers is that they play absolutely no defense and offer no resistance on that end of the floor. The Summit League is always must-see TV because of the potent offenses, but if Denver truly wants to make a legitimate run at their very first NCAA Tournament, they are going to have to figure out some defense in the next week.
Sun Belt
March 3rd-9th
Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL
Top Seed: Troy Trojans
Winner: Troy Trojans
The Sun Belt is going to get crazy, as it is every year, but this year it is going to be especially fun. Why? There are 4 teams that all finished in a tie for first place. Tiebreakers determined the winner, and that has to put a sour taste in the Trojans' mouths. At the start of February, Troy was in first place in the league and had then lost 3 out of 5. Never fear, though the Trojans are the most talented team in the league and have the best frontcourt in the league. Troy is the best team in the league, and in this case, talent will win out.
Sleeper: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Coastal Carolina is a sleeping giant, and it is attributed to their coach Justin Gray. Gray is one of the very best coaches in basketball, and the Chanticleers are already reaping the benefits of his leadership. Coastal Carolina has three dynamic guards who can take over a game, a trait many other Sun Belt teams don’t have. The Chanticleers don’t play defense well, but given that they have won 5 out of six heading into the tournament, all of which were close games. They are poised to make a deep run.
West Coast
March 5th- 10th
Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV
Top Seed: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Winner: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga has won the West Coast Conference for the final time, as this is the last time they will compete in the conference. It was a strange year for the Bulldogs as they had to battle injuries to their frontcourt, especially to star Braden Huff. Gonzaga also lost to Portland, the biggest upset of the year. Not to worry, though, as Gonzaga still ran through the league with little to no resistance like they do every season. The Bulldogs do need to get healthy before the NCAA Tournament, but they will still secure the auto bid in the West Coast with relative ease.
Sleeper: Pacific TigersÂ
Dave Smart took over the Pacific program two seasons ago to rebuild it and get it back to competitiveness in the West Coast Conference. He has done just that, and now the Tigers are in a great position to make a run and fight for an NCAA Tournament berth. Pacific is closer to Saint Mary’s than Gonzaga in style of play, and that recipe has won a lot of league games. The pace is slow, the defense is great, and the Tigers are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. That could be a recipe to at least make it to the finals of the league tournament, but beating Gonzaga is always a tall task.