Louisville meets Kentucky in Lexington in the latest matchup of this bitter rivalry; can the Cardinals pull of a shocker on the road or will the Wildcats keep thriving in nonconference play?
TV schedule: Saturday, December 14, 5:15 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
Recent history has been brutal at Louisville (6-4), though Pat Kelsey’s first season with the Cardinals has them turning the page towards the future. A brilliant start to the season saw wins over Indiana and West Virginia in the Bahamas, but Louisville has certainly taken a step back the last couple weeks, especially after losing Kesean Pryor for the season.
The Cardinals will continue to lean heavily on Chucky Hepburn (14.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.8 apg), the former Wisconsin point guard who was certainly one of the bigger offseason additions as Kelsey rebuilt this roster from scratch. Terrence Edwards (12.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg) is another notable name, though his shooting figures have been weaker than desired through ten games. Another player to watch is someone who came with Kelsey from Charleston, as Reyne Smith (12.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg) has shown great promise since coming from Australia.
After losing three of their last four games, Louisville has fallen to 59th in KenPom and 61st in the NET rankings, and Wednesday’s close call against UTEP didn’t exactly help matters. This disappointing stretch includes double-digit losses at home to Ole Miss and Duke, while the long-range shooting has been very cold in their last five games. This team isn’t trending in a great direction, though you can certainly say this is way better than last year’s squad that finished 8-24.
A similar new vibe is present at Kentucky (9-1), as the Wildcats have a new leader in Mark Pope and a brand new roster that’s exceeding expectations. Kentucky’s hot start to the season includes great wins over Duke and Gonzaga and plenty of promise with a roster that Pope pieced together in the months after he was hired. The bottom line is that they’re good and they’re only going to get better.
The offensive standout through a month of play has been Otega Oweh (15.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg), the junior guard who transferred from Oklahoma. The Wildcats are hopeful that Lamont Butler (12.9 ppg, 3.9 apg) will be back after missing the last two games with injury, as he’s certainly one of the best defenders on this team. Koby Brea (12.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg) is someone that defenses need to know about, as this Dayton transfer is a sharpshooter and has made 56% of his 3-pointers.
The Wildcats are up to #5 in the AP Top 25 after last week’s overtime win against Gonzaga and still sit 10th in KenPom and 5th in the NET. Kentucky sits among the top teams in the nation in offensive efficiency and really shined in those prominent wins. There are some really talented players that do important things, like Brea’s shooting and Butler’s defense and it’ll be interesting to see how exactly this team continues to gel by the time SEC play begins.
Recent matchups between these two schools have been very uneven, though it’s a new era on both campuses. Anything can happen in a rivalry matchup, even with Louisville having a tough test on the road, but this certainly looks like it’s be another win for the Wildcats. Their offense is really strong and the Cardinals haven’t handled a team with this amount of talent very well this season.
Expecting a Kentucky win, we can say that Louisville will need smart ball out of Hepburn and for this team to actually hit their outside shots. They’re dealing with a tough road environment against the Wildcats and absolutely cannot afford to get in a big hole early. A quick start, avoiding turnovers, and smart defense is how the Cardinals pull this upset, but they’re still likely a year away from competing with Kentucky.
Prediction: Kentucky 84, Louisville 68