With just days until the 2025 NCAA Tournament, teams across the country are officially punching their tickets to the Big Dance. For many in the field, simply gaining entry is a major accomplishment. But for others on the lower seed lines, the hope is that punching their ticket is only the beginning of a long NCAA Tournament stay.
Yet, the reality of March Madness is that one of the major reasons it's so captivating is the upsets and seeing top National Title contenders fall. For many projected in the top 5-6 seeds, their NCAA Tournament appearances are inevitably going to be shorter than anticipated.
Even before the bracket is officially unveiled, there are several teams that appear the most susceptible to a major March upset. These four, in particular, are teams you should look to avoid when filling out their bracket, as they're the most likely teams to be on the wrong side of a "Cinderella" run.
Arizona Wildcats
The first season in the Big 12 has gone quite well for Tommy Lloyd and the Arizona Wildcats (20-11, 14-6 Big 12), who currently sit as a projected 5 seed in the bracket. The Wildcats have recovered nicely from a bumpy non-conference that saw them lose five times - including defeats to West Virginia and Oklahoma. Despite the strong second half, this has all the makings of a team that should be avoided when filling out brackets.
For one, point guard Caleb Love is the most confusing and volatile player in America. There's no denying he can be one of the best in the country when he's "on" - his play during North Carolina's 2022 NCAA Tournament run is perfect evidence of that. But he's about as streaky of a player as they come, and he's really struggled to shoot the ball all season long. He enters the most important time of the year, shooting just 37% from the field and 32% from three-point territory, but his fearless style of play means he's still throwing up nearly eight threes a game. As impressive of a player as Love can be, his frustrating knack to shoot the Wildcats out of games has been on full display this entire winter, and it's hard to trust a player like that on the big stage of March Madness.
Secondly, Lloyd himself has some March demons to excise as head coach, despite all his success during the regular season. He's 4-3 overall in NCAA Tournaments, but has had much shorter runs than expected, considering he's earned a No. 1 seed and a pair of No. 2 seeds in his three seasons at the helm. The shocking defeat to 15 seed Princeton in 2023 still sticks out in memory, and hasn't been erased by a pair of Sweet 16 appearances in his other two NCAA Tournament appearances. He may be one of the game's elite coaches, but it's clear he's still learning how to bring his regular season success into March.
Illinois Fighting Illini
After going to the Elite Eight last spring, Brad Underwood looked like he could have one of his best teams yet in Champaign in 2024-25 after a flaming hot start to the season. That has changed since the the calendar has flipped to the New Year, and the fading Illini (20-11, 12-8 Big Ten) now find themselves hovering around the 6 seed line as Selection Sunday nears.
Injuries have certainly contributed to the Illini's recent struggles, but it's also clear that they've struggled to find consistency offensively. At times, they can light it up, as evidenced by their 83.7 PPG scoring average, but so too can they put out some truly head-scratching offensive performances. They've struggled away from State Farm Center all season and life won't get any easier as they prepare for the NCAA Tournament. In their last six road games, including the neutral site matchup with Duke at Madison Square Garden, they've been held to 75 points or less five times.
Freshman phenom Kasparas Jakucionis needs to get going again, as he's slowed significantly in recent weeks. Just as important, the Illini need to find more consistency from their supporting cast if they have any hopes of an extended March stay, including guys like Will Riley and Kylan Boswell.
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee (25-6, 12-6 SEC) and head coach Rick Barnes enter another March Madness with something to prove. The program remains one of the best in the SEC, but it's no secret they've had their fair share of March struggles. With that being said, the Volunteers did answer a lot of those questions with an impressive run all the way to the Elite Eight last year, only falling short to eventual National Runner-Up Purdue. But this program just feels like one that's always in the crosshairs of an upset, and this year's team has concerns.
Like most Barnes-coached teams, this Tennessee team relies on physical, tough defense and a grinding style offensively. It's worked out well so far in the SEC, hence the reason they current project on the 2-seed line. Yet, the Volunteer offense has left something to be desired all season, often going through cold stretches in their biggest moments. Tennessee ranks 345th in the country in adjusted tempo, as they look to slow things down to a halt and grind out victories. That feels like a strategy well-suited to the long haul of a regular season but in the context of the NCAA Tournament, where a hot shooting team can sink the Vols, it leaves them susceptible to an upset.
With all due respect to Chaz Lanier, who has had a superb campaign after transferring in from North Florida, there is no Dalton Knecht on this year's Tennessee team. And beyond Lanier, there just isn't much on this roster that can go out and make a major bucket, and this isn't as good of a three-point shooting team as past Tennessee teams.
Duke Blue Devils
Obviously, this comes with a major caveat. The startling ankle injury to superstar freshman Cooper Flagg in Duke's ACC quarterfinals win over Georgia Tech could be the type of development that derails a Blue Devils (29-3, 19-1 ACC) season that looked destined for a National Title. From what we've heard, it doesn't appear to be a significant enough injury to cost Flagg serious time, but it's fair to wonder if the likely National Player of the Year will be 100 percent by Duke's first NCAA Tournament game.
Flagg is not the only Blue Devil dealing with injury, as Maliq Brown also dislocated his shoulder in the win. If Brown is to miss significant time, Duke will lose a key piece in their frontcourt, a player who is arguably their best defender. In times like the NCAA Tournament, where the margins are so small and every tiny thing can make a difference, you wonder if an injury like that could catch Duke at an unfortunate time.
Vegas doesn't appear to have reacted in a major way to the Flagg news, as the Blue Devils remain a National Title favorite. But for a team that has a very likely chance to be the top overall seed, the injury is one of the most interesting storylines to watch as Selection Sunday nears.
We'll learn a lot more about Duke in the coming days, and more about each of these teams once the bracket is announced. All should find themselves with a favorable seed, but don't be shocked if they find themselves on the wrong side of a March Madness upset or two.