March Madness 2025: Horizon League conference tournament preview and predictions

Last year, the Oakland Grizzlies won both the Horizon League regular season championship and the conference tournament. They followed that up with a big upset win over Kentucky in the first round to put the conference on the map. This year, the Grizzlies fell out of the top five in what was a strong season for the league overall.

This year, it’s Robert Morris at the top spot, earning its first-ever regular season title in the Horizon League. But are they the favorites to win this 11-team field? Here’s a preview of the tournament before making some picks.

Date and TV

First Round: March 4th (ESPN+)
Second Round: March 6th (ESPN+)
Semifinals: March 10th (ESPNU and ESPN2)
Finals: March 11 (ESPN at 7 pm ET)

Key teams

Favorites (Robert Morris and Milwaukee)

After being picked to finish 9th in the preseason poll, Robert Morris (23-8, 15-5) has been the hottest team in the conference, winning 13 of its last 14 games, including at least once over every team in the conference. They’re led by Conference Player of the Year Alvaro Folgueiras (14.3 ppg and 9.3 rpg) and forward Amarion Dickerson, who won Conference Defensive Player of the Year. 

While the Colonials are first in the standings, Milwaukee (21-10, 14-6) is considered the favorite in the metrics. They have five double-digit scorers, including Jamichael Stillwell (13 ppg and 10.9 rpg), who is one of the nation’s top rebounders. When the Panthers can shoot the ball well, they can beat anyone.

Darkhorse to watch: Northern Kentucky

The Norse were a preseason contender but had lost six straight games at one point. They’ve bounced back nicely as of late, winning five of the last six games. They’re one of the top defenses in the conference and are led by 6’6 forward Trey Robinson (15.7 ppg and 6.1 rpg). Their lack of size has been an issue, but there’s potential for them to make a run.

Key players

Kam Woods - Robert Morris

The 3rd all-league player for the Colonials is Woods, who leads the league with 35.5 mpg and has nearly two steals a game. But while he’s averaging 14.6 ppg and 5.1 apg, the efficiency has been an issue, with an overall shooting split of 37-29-62. Yet when he’s on, RMU is nearly impossible to beat.

Jalen Jackson - Purdue-Fort Wayne

The top scorer in the Horizon League is Jackson, averaging 19.2 ppg and 3.2 apg. He and fellow first-team all-league guard Rasheed Bello form the top backcourt in the conference. But after missing the last game with a reported upper-body injury, he may not be 100% this week.

Tevin Smith - Cleveland State

The 6’5 senior guard leads the Vikings with 13.8 ppg, shooting 42% from the field and being an all-league defender. For a while, Cleveland State was the team to beat in the conference. They can get back to that if Smith plays at a high level and gets some support.

EJ Farmer - Youngstown State

In 24 games, the 6’1 guard led the team with 15.1 ppg, including a four-game stretch of 20+ points. An illness has sidelined Farmer for the past couple of weeks, so that’s a big storyline to watch this week.

Bracketology

It’s been a good season overall for the Horizon, so if any of the top five teams win the tournament, they should be a 15-seed and avoid one of the 16-seed spots. Thanks to non-con wins over Duquesne and St. Thomas, Milwaukee has the best odds of being a 14 seed. 

Predictions (Note that matchups are determined by lowest vs highest seed each round)

1st Round

6) Oakland over 11) Green Bay
7) Northern Kentucky over 10) Detroit Mercy
9) IU Indy over 8) Wright State

Anthony Roy, who averaged nearly 26 ppg in the non-con, would be back for Green Bay. He’s yet to return, and it’s unlikely that’ll happen now. And the 7 vs 10 matchup is between one of the hottest teams (NKU) and one of the coldest (Detroit). The one potential upset is with IU Indy, who put up a good effort against RMU after their bus caught on fire and lost many belongings. They defeated Wright State to end the regular season, and it’s a good matchup since the Raiders don’t defend the 3-ball well. It’ll be the closest matchup of the three, and I think the Jags find a way to win.

2nd Round

1) RMU over 9) IU Indy
7) NKU over 2) Cleveland State
3) Milwaukee over 6) Oakland
5) PFW over 4) YSU

IU Indy put up a much better effort at home against RMU, but they did lose by 53 points in the first go-around. The Colonials defense will just be too much for the Jags to deal with. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has a frontcourt that can match up against the Grizzlies, which should lead them to victory. 

Purdue-Fort Wayne and Youngstown are evenly matched, so it may depend on the health of their respective guards. The Mastodons have enough firepower to win on the road, while the Penguins and first-year HC Ethan Faulkner may be too young against the experience on the other side. Lastly, NKU has momentum compared to what the Vikings have lost, making it a very competitive game that the Norse can use to go to Indy.

Semifinals

1) RMU over 7) Northern Kentucky
3) Milwaukee over 5) Purdue-Fort Wayne

RMU and NKU had two thrilling matchups, including a triple-OT game and one in which the Colonials came back from 13 points down to win on the road. If they play again, it should be another close game. But the Norse are less likely to shoot the way they’ve done in the first two matchups, and if that’s not sustainable, look for the Colonials to get the complete sweep. 

Who I don’t think will get the three-game sweep is Fort Wayne, who beat Milwaukee the first two times. Jackson and Bello combined for 45+ points in both wins for the Mastodons, while Stillwell struggled on the other end for the Panthers. Yet, Milwaukee could’ve won both of those games. Look for third time to be the charm.

Finals

3) Milwaukee over 1) Robert Morris

Speaking of the third time being the charm, RMU swept the Panthers in the regular season, with Milwaukee having awful shooting games both times. It’ll come down to whether the Colonials can continue to keep Milwaukee off the boards, but another sneaky storyline is RMU playing a seven-man rotation on back-to-back nights. Can Woods and company play nearly 40 minutes twice in a row against good teams? It could prove to be the deeper Panthers’ advantage.