Drake changed head coaches but remained the Missouri Valley Conference’s top team. The Bulldogs have won two straight postseason tournaments and this year claimed the regular season title. Which Valley teams have the best chance to knock the Bulldogs from their lofty perch?
There are several legitimate contenders to the MVC throne. The Valley’s two longest-tenured coaches have each experienced success this year and in this annual tournament. Drake lost three games all year and all three were during conference play, so MVC teams know it can be done.
For the thirty-fifth straight season the Missouri Valley Conference hosts its postseason tournament in downtown St. Louis. ‘Arch Madness’ is the second-longest running neutral site conference tournament in college basketball. Only the Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden has been going longer.
Since the MVC Tournament was played in 2020 and the Big East event wasn’t, Arch Madness has more consecutive years, than the Big East event.
Complete MVC Seedings
1. Drake – 17-3 (27-3)
2. Bradley – 15-5 (24-7)
3. Northern Iowa – 14-6 (20-11)
4. Belmont – 13-7 (21-10)
5. Illinois State – 10-10 (18-13)
6. Illinois Chicago – 10-10 (17-13)
7. Murray State – 9-11 (15-16)
8. Southern Illinois – 8-12 (13-18)
9. Indiana State – 8-12 (14-17)
10. Evansville – 8-12 (11-20)
11. Valparaiso – 6-14 (13-18)
12. Missouri State – 2-18 (9-22)
🚨Ties broken. Bracket released🚨#ValleyHoops pic.twitter.com/JHZHW9aQC2
— MVC Basketball (@ValleyHoops) March 3, 2025
The Valley’s top four teams receive an opening round bye into the Arch Madness quarterfinals. As with all these conference tournaments, the winner receives the league’s automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.
With just one win in St. Louis, bracketologist Rocco Miller of bracketeer.org believes Drake will be safely in the ‘Big Dance’. If a team outside of the Bulldogs cuts down the nets on CBS this coming Sunday, the Valley can become a two-bid league.
Most bracketologists currently believe Drake will be slotted in the eleven or twelve seed range in the March Madness event.
Second place Bradley won back-to-back tournaments (2019 & 2020). Northern Iowa’s Ben Jacobson has taken home four Arch Madness trophies.
Key Players
G Bennett Stirtz, Drake Bulldogs
2024-25 Season Stats: 18.9 ppg; 4.4 rebounds; 5.9 assists
Stirtz was a Division 2 transfer that joined his D2 coach Ben McCollum at Drake and became the Valley’s best player. Many call Stirtz the best point guard in mid-major college basketball, if not in all of college hoops.
The 6’4 junior led the league scoring, assists and steals and led the nation in minutes played. He runs Drake’s offense and defense and rarely makes a mistake. He is the perfect quarterback for McCollum’s squad.
G Duke Deen, Bradley Braves
2024-25 Season Stats: 14.1 ppg; 3.5 rebounds; 3.8 assists
Deen may be the biggest difference-maker in this tournament. The senior guard has the ability to take over games. He is the quintessential streak shooter. Deen can miss every shot for an entire half and then dominate the second session, making threes from everywhere.
When Duke Deen ‘is on’ there is no scarier player in the Valley. Head coach Brian Wardle says Deen is one of the greatest leaders he has ever been around. If Deen is hot, the Braves can go a long way.
F Tytan Anderson, Northern Iowa Panthers
2024-25 Season Stats: 15.2 ppg; 6.7 rebounds; 2.5 assists
Anderson is the gasoline in the Northern Iowa engine. He scores, rebounds, dives for loose balls, draws charges and creates chaos. Anderson is the heart and soul of the Panther attack. His teammates feed off his energy and they play bigger, stronger and more aggressively when he is leading the charge.
Team To Beat – Drake
Drake is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the country. They do not beat themselves. Stirtz is an elite point guard and knows how to get the Bulldog offense humming. He is relaxed under pressure and makes the 'pocket pass' on the pick & roll with surgeon-like precision.
Stirtz finds his three-point shooters Mitch Mascari (10.4 ppg) and Daniel Abreu (11.0) with ease and sets up his underestimated forwards Cam Manyawu and Tavion Banks (9.9) for easy rim finishes. The Bulldogs are the Valley's best defensive team and lead the conference in rebound margin. McCollum says Abreu hasn't missed a 'box out' all season.
Top Contender – Bradley
The Braves have the league's highest ceiling. This veteran group can beat you in multiple ways. While they are a tough-minded defensive group, they lead the nation in three-point percentage and the Valley in free throw percentage.
Duke Deen can single-handedliy win games, but Darius Hannah (12.1 ppg) is an elite finisher. At 6'9, his shot-blocking is a big part of the Bradley defensive personality, and his ability to shake free for timely drives is uncanny. Hannah scored game-winning, buzzer-beating layups in two of Bradley's last four wins.
Christian Davis is a lock down defender and he and Zek Montgomery give Bradley high-level third and fourth offensive options. Any of those top four players can go off. Reserve guards Jaquan Johnson and Demarion Burch are truly 'change-of-pace' weapons coming off Brian Wardle's bench.
Dark Horse – Illinois State
Illinois State could win this thing! Their path to the Sunday after final is challenging but doable. The Redbirds split their two games with fourth place Belmont and their two games with Bradley. While Northern Iowa and Drake swept Ryan Pedon's team, UNI's wins were by a total of four points and Drake's by eleven.
No one played the Valley's top four teams tougher than Illinois State.
Sophomores and Chase Walker (15.1 ppg) lead the Redbird offense, but fifth-year veterans Dalton Banks, Malachi Poindexter, and Jordan Davis provide the glue and leadership. Kinziger is a fiery competitior that can light it up in a hurry and Walker is a force inside.
The veterans hit big shots, play nasty defense and have been through the Valley wars. By earning a tie-breaker with Illinois Chicago, they face twelfth place Missouri State during the opening round and play Belmont in the quarterfinals. Those are good matchups for the Birds.
Predictions
First Round
No. 9 Indiana State over No. 8 Southern Illinois
No. 5 Illinois State over No. 12 Missouri State
No. 7 Murray State over No. 10 Evansville
No. 6 Illinois Chicago over No. 11 Valparaiso
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Drake over No. 9 Indiana State
No. 5 Illinois State over No. 4 Belmont
No. 2 Bradley over No. 7 Murray State
No. 3 Northern Iowa over No. 6 Illinois Chicago
Semifinals
No. 1 Drake over No. 5 Illinois State
No. 2 Bradley over No. 3 Northern Iowa
Finals
No. 2 Bradley over No. 1 Drake
Think Kansas City Chiefs versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Drake will be the unquestioned tournament favorite. Not only are they 27-3, but they are 9-2 in ‘coin-flip’ games (6 or less points) and 5-0 in overtime. The Bulldogs play at the nation’s slowest pace and thus their games stay relatively close.
Bradley has a ceiling and a history in St. Louis, that tells me they can take the ‘rubber game’ of their three-game series. The teams split their regular season games, with each winning on the opponent’s floor. Drake won by seven points in Peoria and the Braves won by two in Des Moines.
This just might be the electric Duke Deen’s time. Bradley has focused on St. Louis and winning this tournament all season long. Wardle and his seniors, are determined to be NCAA Tournament participants.
McCollum’s history of tournament success makes this an insane pick. His Northwest Missouri State teams won four national championships and nothing knocks this guy off center. Drake’s fundamentals are practically perfect.
During conference play they are the league’s top rebounding team, best defensive squad and best shooting team. While their free throw shooting isn’t great, it isn’t terrible either. Bradley is the Valley’s best free throw shooting team and second best defensive field goal percentage squad.
If Deen is hot and 6’9 Darius Hannah is flying around, I believe Bradley is the team to beat.