March Madness 2025: Ohio Valley Conference tournament preview and predictions

Southeast Missouri State v Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southeast Missouri State v Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Andy Lyons/GettyImages

The new-look Ohio Valley Conference returns to Evansville’s Ford Center for its postseason tournament. Programs like Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois Edwardsville and Lindenwood are enjoying historically improved seasons and never has the seventy-six-year-old conference been more balanced and wide open.

After SEMO secured the regular season title, the league’s other double-bye was decided on the final day of the season when SIUE defeated Little Rock. The Cougars picked up the double-bye finishing second and earned a program record twentieth win. SEMO’s regular season title is just the second in Redhawk history. 

Complete OVC Seedings: 

1. Southeast Missouri - 15-5 (20-11)

2. Southern Illinois Edwardsville – 13-7 (20-11)

3. Tennessee State – 12-8 (16-15)

4. Little Rock – 12-8 (18-13)

5. Tennessee Tech – 10-10 (15-16)

6. Lindenwood – 10-10 (15-16)

7. Morehead State – 10-10 (15-16)

8. UT Martin – 9-11 (13-18) 

2025 OVC Men's Basketball Championship Presented United Fidelity Bank (Ford Center - Evansville, Indiana)

Game 1 -#5 Tennessee Tech vs. #8 UT Martin, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN+)

Game 2 -#6 Lindenwood vs. #7 Morehead State, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN+)

Quarterfinals - Thursday, March 6

Game 3 -#4 Little Rockvs. Winner of Game 1, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN+)

Game 4 -#3 Tennessee Statevs. Winner of Game 2, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN+)

Semifinals - Friday, March 7

Game 5 -#1 Southeast Missourivs. Game 3 Winner, 7:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

Game 6 -#2 SIUEvs. Game 4 Winner, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Championship - Saturday, March 8

Game 7 - Semifinal Winners, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN2/Westwood One)

Only eight of the eleven Ohio Valley Conference teams qualify for the postseason tournament. The top two teams receive a double-bye and teams seeded third and fourth receive a bye into the tournament’s quarterfinal round. 

Saturday night’s tournament champion receives an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Virtually every bracketologist has predicted the OVC automatic qualifier as a ‘first four’ participant in Dayton, Ohio. 

The Ohio Valley Conference has crowned five different teams over past six seasons. Morehead State was victorious in 2021 and in 2024. SEMO is attempting to win its second OVC Tournament title since 2023 and its third overall. 

Key Players

G Ray’Sean Taylor, SIUE (SR)

2024-25 Season Stats: 19.2 ppg; 3.8 assists; 2.1 Steals

Ray’Sean Taylor is SIUE’s D1 career scoring leader (1.908) and the OVC’s top scorer. During his four collegiate seasons, the Cougars have experienced their only three D1 winning seasons. Taylor’s 293 triples are the most in program history and he is the OVC’s most explosive offensive player reaching the twenty-point plateau 13 times. 

Guard – Rob Martin, Southeast Missouri

2024-25 Season Stats: 14.5 ppg; 4.6 assists; 2.5 rebounds

Martin reached double figures during five of SEMO’s first fifteen games and now he has scored at least ten points in sixteen straight games. His in-conference numbers far exceed his overall statistics. During SEMO’s championship clinching win over SIUE, Martin scored a career-high 31 points. 

Guard – Johnathan Lawson, Little Rock

2024-25 Season Stats: 15.3 ppg; 5.3 rebounds; 3.5 assists

Lawson has been Little Rock’s most consistent and reliable player. After the Trojans lost OVC preseason player of the year K.K. Robinson for the entire season, Lawson filled the role of team leader. The Creighton transfer was twice named the OVC player of the week and a two-time newcomer of the week. 

Team To Beat – Southeast Missouri

Southeast Missouri head coach Brad Korn led the Redhawks to the 2023 postseason tournament title. Then portal losses and heavy injuries reduced SEMO to a ten-win team last year. This year a late season, ten-game winning streak pushed the team to its first-ever outright OVC regular season championship. The Redhawks led the OVC in free throw percentage, field goal percentage, turnover margin, assist/turnover margin and defending the three-point line. 

In-other-words, Korn’s team doesn’t beat itself. 

Martin’s backcourt mate, Teddy Washington Jr averages over 14 points per game, is the team’s leading rebounder (5.4 per game) and is a pick-pocket on defense. 

Top Contender – Southern Illinois Edwardsville

SIUE’s first ever 20-win season was built on Taylor and defense. While Taylor was leading the league in scoring, the Cougars were the OVC’s second best team at keeping the opposition from scoring. (66.6 ppg). Forward Ring Malith is the OVC’s second leading rebounder and Taylor’s cousin Brian Taylor Jr is a slasher that averages over 12-points and nearly three assists per game. 

The Cougars win on grit and togetherness. For SIUE to win, Taylor has to be very good. He is the heart and soul of the team. He leads the OVC in scoring, steals, is third in free throw percentage and second in made threes. He logs heavy minutes and has great basketball IQ. 

Dark Horse – UT Martin

The Skyhawks are the OVC’s most battle tested team and must have played the most minutes of any conference team. Six games have gone into overtime and 17 of their 31 games have been decided by six points or less, or have gone into overtime. While they only won seven of those seventeen and one of the six, extra session games, nothing in Evansvile will come as a shot to Jeremy Shulman’s team. 

Junior guard Tarence Guinyard is the league's second leading scorer (16.8 ppg).

UT Martin split its two games with SEMO and swept SIUE. 

A second dark horse could be Tennessee State. The Tigers finished the season winning ten of thirteen games to pull into a third place tie with Little Rock. 

Predictions

First Round

No. 8 UT Martin over No. 5 Tennessee Tech

No. 6 Lindenwood over No. 7 Morehead State

Quarterfinals

No. 8 UT Martin over No. 4 Little Rock

No. 3 Tennessee State over No. 6 Lindenwood

Semifinals

No. 1 Southeast Missouri over No. 8 UT Martin

No. 2 Southern Illinois Edwardsville over No. 3 Tennessee State

Finals 

While SEMO and SIUE have been the league’s best two teams, the Cougars seemed a little gassed during the season’s last two weeks. Brian Barone’s team split their last six games and got beat by double digits during two of the three losses. 

One of those defeats was a convincing one at the hands of the Redhawks. SEMO took both games against the Cougars this season. Korn and Barone are good friends and their two teams play outstanding ‘team’ basketball. They have become two of the more solid OVC programs. 

SIUE recovered in a big way defeating Little Rock on the season's last day to earn the double-bye in Evansville.

SIUE has won 56 games over the past three seasons and SEMO has claimed a conference tournament win and now a regular season title during that same time span. These two should reach the final and SEMO’s superior fire power should prevail.