March Madness 2025: Summit League conference tournament preview and prediction

It may be a mid-major league that doesn’t get a ton of attention during the regular season, but there’s always reason to be excited about the Summit League. This conference has produced some fantastic basketball players in recent years, with Max Abmas, Baylor Scheierman, and other notable names starting their careers in this conference.

It’s a league that has bounced between North Dakota State, Oral Roberts, and South Dakota State in recent years, though Abmas and those Golden Eagles made the greatest impression, advancing to the Sweet Sixteen of the 2021 NCAA Tournament as a 15-seed. Things are a little different this season, as the Golden Eagles finished dead last, while those two Dakota schools were both outside the Top 2 in the league.

A somewhat unlikely pair nabbed the two top seeds in the Summit League, as Omaha seeks their first ever trip to the NCAA Tournament while St. Thomas really excelled, though remains ineligible for the Big Dance thanks to their D1 transition. You can easily argue that the tournament is more open than in recent years.

Five of the nine teams in this conference were above .500 in league play while the other four were pretty distant. Any of those five has a reasonable shot at dancing and we’ll dive into what we could see and what might happen in Sioux Falls in the days ahead. Whose ticket will be punched and whose dreams will be destroyed?

Players to Watch

Much like in recent years, the Summit League has some intriguing talent and these are a few names that could play a major part in how this tournament unfolds.

Oscar Cluff – South Dakota State

After solid work as a junior at Washington State last season, Cluff has taken on a major role with the Jackrabbits this year. He’s the top rebounder and most efficient scorer in the Summit League, averaging 17.3 points and 12.2 rebounds per game this season. He’s a major piece and his contributions in South Dakota State’s frontcourt are paramount if they’re defending their title from last year.

Drake Dobbs – St. Thomas

There’s a multitude of talent on this St. Thomas team, but Dobbs could be the key cog if they’re going to win their first Summit League title. The former Liberty guard is averaging 11.7 points and 3.6 assists per game but has nailed 46% of his 3-pointers this season. He’s been cold as of late, but if Dobbs can catch fire in Sioux Falls then he’s a major asset all over the court.

Jacksen Moni – North Dakota State

A former D2 standout at Northern State, Moni has made great strides in his first season with the Bison. Not just the team’s leader in points and assists, he’s the top scorer in the entire Summit League, putting up 20.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game while knocking down 41% of his 3-pointers. Having topped 27 points in three of his last four, him catching fire could turn into a great week for North Dakota State.

Marquel Sutton – Omaha

This 6’7 forward from Tulsa has had his hands all over Omaha’s success in his third season with the Mavericks. Sutton averages 18.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game with decent shooting figures and has been the focal point for this team’s success. He’s had at least 20 points in six straight games, including a 36-point performance a few weeks ago against South Dakota.

Bracketology

Although the Summit League sits middle of the pack when it comes to conference rankings, the winner of this tournament likely won’t be too happy with their seeding. This is obviously a one-bid league that has produced teams typically seeded between 14 and 16 and that should be similar this season.

In actuality, Omaha has pretty rough metrics and a NET of just 182, meaning a 16-seed might happen if the top-seed wins this event. North Dakota State’s resume is helped by their Quad 1 win over Santa Clara while South Dakota State also has decent metrics, but anything beyond a 15-seed would be a major shocker for those two.

Predictions

First Round

#8 Kansas City vs. #9 Oral Roberts (March 5, 8:00pm)

There haven’t been a lot of great moments from either of these teams, with the two even splitting their matchups earlier in the year. Despite finishing at the bottom of the league, we’re riding with an Oral Roberts team that’s playing a little better down the stretch and has a great scorer in Issac McBride.

Oral Roberts wins

Quarterfinals

#1 Omaha vs. #9 Oral Roberts (March 6, 7:00pm)

The Mavericks made quick work of Oral Roberts just a few days ago in the regular season finale and we foresee a similar result to open the quarterfinals. There’s too much talent and drive behind this Omaha squad, though Oral Roberts could make it closer than that 23-point loss on March 1st.

Omaha wins

#2 St. Thomas vs. #7 Denver (March 6, 9:30pm)

St. Thomas took care of Denver twice in the regular season and should be solid favorites to grab a third win. We’ve mentioned the depth of talent for these Tommies and we don’t foresee them getting tripped up, even after Denver ended the regular season on a high note, winning against South Dakota State.

St. Thomas wins

#4 North Dakota State vs. #5 South Dakota (March 7, 7:00pm)

The Bison showed great potential earlier in the year with wins at Butler and Santa Clara and have already knocked out these Coyotes twice, including a 26-point road win back in January. However, if South Dakota can find their shooting touch then they might be able to topple North Dakota State, though we’re anticipating the opposite.

North Dakota State wins

#3 South Dakota State vs. #6 North Dakota (March 7, 9:30pm)

Losing point guard Owen Larson was a huge blow for South Dakota State, but the Jackrabbits should still have enough in the tank to avenge an early February defeat against North Dakota. They’ll need to bounce back quickly after a tough regular season finale loss to Denver, but they’re playing just a bit better overall and should get back to the semifinals.

South Dakota State wins

Semifinals

#1 Omaha vs. #4 North Dakota State (March 8, 8:00pm)

When these two teams played earlier in the season, Omaha was victorious both times out, but winning three games over one team isn’t easy. North Dakota State hasn’t forgotten those shortcomings and will be highly motivated in the semifinals. We’re expecting this to be one of the closest matchups in the tournament and are predicting something of a shocker.

North Dakota State wins

#2 St. Thomas vs. #3 South Dakota State (March 8, 10:30pm)

This is the point where that injury really hurts the Jackrabbits, as Larson led the way with 22 points in their win over St. Thomas just one month ago. There’s a lot of balance on both of these rosters but the Tommies don’t have those injury woes and are just playing a little better at this point.

St. Thomas wins

Finals

#2 St. Thomas vs. #4 North Dakota State (March 9, 9:00pm)

Major ramifications would be on the line for three teams, as St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. If they win this tournament, then top-seed Omaha automatically advances to the Big Dance, much like Fairleigh Dickinson did two years ago before they made unforgettable history. With that being said, the Tommies did actually win both matchups with North Dakota State during the regular season.

But the postseason is a different animal and the Bison will be ready to dish some revenge. The St. Thomas defense is playing at a higher level than North Dakota State and this could boil down to who makes the most shots down the stretch. Considering that the Tommies are Top 10 in the nation in 3-point percentage, we’re going to ride with them all the way to the championship, though North Dakota State should give them a serious run.

St. Thomas wins the Summit League Tournament (Omaha advances to the NCAA Tournament)