March Madness 2025: Sun Belt conference tournament preview and predictions

A prominent G5 conference in football, the Sun Belt will earn intrigue and many eyes on its conference tournament in basketball thanks to changes made in the offseason. All 14 Sun Belt teams will be present in Pensacola for the proceedings, but an extreme stepladder format will make tournament progression much more difficult for the lower seeds.

The top two seeds in the Sun Belt each get byes all the way to the semifinals, needing only two victories to reach the NCAA Tournament. On the contrary, the four teams seeded 11 through 14 will face off in the first round and need to win seven games in seven days, ascending the stepladder against their league foes.

What makes matters even more intriguing is how closely fought this conference was during the regular season. Four teams actually tied at 13-5 for the regular season title, with Marshall just a game back in the 5th seed. South Alabama and James Madison get the top two seeds thanks to various tiebreakers while Troy and Arkansas State still have great shots from the 3rd and 4th seeds respectively.

Beyond these schools there are certainly teams that could make a run, especially with another logjam of schools at 8-10 in the league. However, it becomes a major disadvantage when a team has played two or three days in a row against a fresh quad. Who exactly will we see stand out in this 14-team field and represent the Sun Belt in the Big Dance?

Players to Watch

There’s talent aplenty among the teams in the Sun Belt, though we’re looking at just a few of those names that could make a major impact in the days ahead.

Tayton Conerway – Troy

Certainly one of the Sun Belt’s most talented guards, Conerway averaged 13.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.0 steals per game in a very productive season for these Trojans. He’s been a major different maker for Troy these last few seasons and is the reason they tied for the regular season crown, while also leading the conference in steals and coming pretty close in assists too.

Barry Dunning Jr. – South Alabama

South Alabama didn’t get the top seed by accident and Dunning is a major piece of the puzzle for the Jaguars. He averaged 14.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, becoming a major producer after transferring twice in the last two seasons. Dunning found an important role in this frontcourt as the team’s top scorer and rebounder and they’ll lean heavily on him in Pensacola.

Denijay Harris – Southern Miss

While his Golden Eagles have really struggled and are a major longshot as a 12-seed in this event, Harris has really stood out this season. He actually leads the Sun Belt with 16.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, really showing out in his return to Southern Miss after riding the bench at Arkansas last season. If any lower-seed can make a decent run, Harris could be a reason why that happens.

Bryce Lindsay – James Madison

A former Texas A&M bench player, Lindsay has spent his sophomore season becoming a major piece of the puzzle for a Dukes team that notched that 2-seed in the tournament, averaging 13.6 points per game. His impressive season has included making 41.5% of his 3-pointers, a figure that leads the league, and his sharpshooting could be a difference maker in March on a talented team.

Bracketology

There isn’t really much to say here, as the Sun Belt has no realistic shot at getting multiple teams into the NCAA Tournament field. As things currently stand, many projections have the winner as a 14-seed, though that four-way tie atop the league standings means different teams are in different bracket projections at the moment.

Arkansas State has the best NET at 91, owning the entire league’s only Quad 1 victory with that upset win at Memphis a few months ago. Riding on that, they’ll likely have an outside chance to move up to a 13-seed based on upsets in other leagues, but you can certainly expect lower than that, especially if a team outside the Top 5 goes on a crazy run next week.

Predictions

First Round

#12 Southern Miss vs. #13 Coastal Carolina (March 4, 6:00pm)

Neither of these teams is particularly in a great spot, though Coastal Carolina did win their matchup on the road and have at least been winning in recent weeks. We’ll ride with these new-look Chanticleers as they hope to finish the season on a positive note after a brutal 12-game losing streak earlier in league play.

Coastal Carolina wins

#11 Louisiana vs. #14 Louisiana-Monroe (March 4, 8:30pm)

It’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, but we’re giving the upper hand to the Ragin’ Cajuns to top their in-state rivals again. The wheels have come off a bit in a 7-win season for Louisiana-Monroe, plus this Louisiana team is only in this opening round thanks to some tough tiebreakers.

Louisiana wins

Second Round

#9 Georgia Southern vs. #13 Coastal Carolina (March 5, 6:00pm)

Georgia Southern won the previous two matchups back in December and are playing much better basketball than Coastal Carolina as things stand. We’re leaning with the fresher Eagles here, though don’t be surprised if the Chanticleers give them a fight. After all, their first matchup went to overtime.

Georgia Southern wins

#10 Old Dominion vs. #11 Louisiana (March 5, 8:30pm)

Neither of these teams started the season on the right foot, though Old Dominion did win the lone matchup in Louisiana nearly two months ago. However, the Monarchs have been trending in the other direction recently and we’re expecting a little more from the Ragin’ Cajuns, who’ll already have their feet wet after the opening round.

Louisiana wins

Third Round

#8 Georgia State vs. #9 Georgia Southern (March 6, 6:00pm)

Georgia State’s recent Sun Belt success is a thing of the past, but two close games with rival Georgia Southern are still fresh in their mind. The Eagles got the best of those Panthers this past Friday in another close matchup and you can bet revenge will be on Georgia State’s mind here.

Georgia State wins

#7 Texas State vs. #11 Louisiana (March 6, 8:30pm)

We could totally see Louisiana going on a run, after all they had the talent to picked 4th in the Sun Belt despite this disastrous finish. However, we’re imagining they run out of gas here against a Texas State team that they split the season series with but who beat James Madison and South Alabama in recent outings.

Texas State wins

Fourth Round

#5 Marshall vs. #8 Georgia State (March 7, 6:00pm)

A nice finish to the season still finds Marshall with several wins needed to advance, including against this feisty Panthers team that upended them at home to close out January. We’re riding with the rested Thunder Herd but could be one of the most intriguing games in the opening half of this tournament.

Marshall wins

#6 Appalachian State vs. #7 Texas State (March 7, 8:30pm)

The Mountaineers and Bobcats both finished just as expected in the conference standings, though Appalachian State hit a slide to finish the season, losing four of their last five contests. Even though they won this first matchup by eleven, that game was over two months ago and we’re giving it to Texas State’s hot hand.

Texas State wins

Quarterfinals

#4 Arkansas State vs. #5 Marshall (March 8, 6:30pm)

Despite some tough performances down the stretch, Arkansas State might be the best team in this league, though Marshall did get the best of them at the beginning of February. Expect this talented Red Wolves squad to flex their muscles with revenge on their mind.

Arkansas State wins

#3 Troy vs. #7 Texas State (March 8, 9:00pm)

After two straight wins, Texas State will be riding high, but their journey ends in the quarterfinal. Troy just won this matchup on the road a few days ago and avenged a recent loss, and the more rested Trojans should have a little more in the tank and enough to advance to the semifinals.

Troy wins

Semifinals

#1 South Alabama vs. #4 Arkansas State (March 9, 6:00pm)

A major reason why South Alabama secured the top-seed in a surprise season from the Jaguars is their sweep over Arkansas State, but things are different in the postseason. These are two very talented teams but it’s hard to beat someone three straight times and we’re riding with the Red Wolves to knock out the top seed.

Arkansas State wins

#2 James Madison vs. #3 Troy (March 9, 8:30pm)

Very little of this James Madison roster returned from last season’s Sun Belt title and NCAA Tourney upset, but the new talent is pretty good too. The Dukes won a close battle with Troy a month earlier and will come out on top in another close battle. There are concerns about their defense, but we’ll see them in the finals.

James Madison wins

Finals

#2 James Madison vs. #4 Arkansas State (March 10, 7:00pm)

The perfect finals matchup pits last year’s Cinderella against a potential rising star in this postseason. The Red Wolves were the preseason pick to win the conference and showed their talent in that win over Memphis. James Madison won the first matchup at home by five points, but that was more than two months ago and it’s a different story now.

Expect Arkansas State’s interior offense to be too much for the Dukes, leaning heavily on experienced guards Taryn Todd and Joseph Pinion for the Sun Belt title. Any of the top five teams are in great position to win this league and each have certain flaws, but we’re riding with a Red Wolves squad that has shown up at the right times and will play like we expected before the season began.

Arkansas State wins the Sun Belt Tournament