Marquette heads to Dayton for what could be a thrilling matchup between these teams; can the Golden Eagles continue their great start or will the Flyers pick up a significant win on their homecourt?
TV schedule: Saturday, December 14, 7:00 pm ET. CBSSN
Arena: UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
The story with Marquette (9-1) is a good one based on how Shaka Smart has turned this program into one of the best in the Big East. While the Golden Eagles have certainly been a second fiddle to UConn, things might be different this season. They had a really tough outing at Iowa State last week but have double-digit wins over Purdue and Wisconsin and have really taken care of business to start the season.
Many faces returned from last year’s team but none were as notable as Kam Jones (20.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 6.6 apg), the senior guard who might just be the best player in the Big East this season. Marquette has plenty of veteran talent, notably getting great production from David Joplin (14.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg), a forward from the Milwaukee area. The shooting figures out of senior guard Stevie Mitchell (11.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg) have been outstanding, while a crew of freshmen are also putting up nice figures in the frontcourt.
Marquette currently sits #6 in the AP Top 25, 6th in the NET, and 9th in the most recent update to KenPom. The Golden Eagles can win games with both their offense and defense, and Smart is certainly known for causing havoc with his more talented teams. This team really showed their grit in their three wins over Big Ten foes, including on the road at Maryland, and are certainly built for another tough environment.
Good feelings are buzzing as well at Dayton (8-2), as an unexpectedly strong trip at Maui really changed the public perception of this program. The Flyers have won seven games at home, though the strongest opponent during this stretch was Northwestern. In Maui, they pushed both North Carolina and Iowa State to the limit in close losses before a shocking 18-point win over a UConn team then ranked #2 in the nation.
Despite losing a few key pieces in the offseason, the Flyers are getting even stronger production out of Enoch Cheeks (16.0 ppg, 7.6 rpg), a senior guard who was making plays throughout that trip to the Maui Invitational. Senior forward Nate Santos (14.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) has made 47% of his 3-pointers and might just be the best pure shooter in the A-10 this season. Among their offseason additions, former Ohio State forward Zed Key (12.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg) has certainly proved to be a fantastic addition to the frontcourt.
Dayton isn’t ranked and hasn’t been this season, but the Flyers are up to 32nd in KenPom and 39th in the NET thanks to those earlier results. This team absolutely proved that they belonged against three very talented power conference teams and have avoided any missteps in their other games. Their offense leads the show, though the defense has been solid at home, not allowing more than 69 points in any of their games on the mainland this season.
After success against UConn, Dayton gets another shot at a top-tier team and you can guarantee they’ll be ready for this opportunity. This squad has been far from perfect this season but they’ve done enough to put themselves in this position. Much like in those earlier games, there’s more talent on the opposite sideline, but does homecourt give the Flyers enough of an edge?
It all boils down to if this Dayton defense has an answer for Jones, because he can take over this game. Even if Jones doesn’t get his usual 20 points, someone like Joplin or Mitchell could stand out, meaning the Flyers need to make their shots or have an outstanding defensive effort. Dayton can absolutely win this game, especially if Cheeks or Santos dazzle, but we’re leaning slightly towards this experienced Marquette team handling their business on the road again.
Prediction: Marquette 77, Dayton 74