Michigan's Dominant Start & Their Secret Weapon: Trey McKenney

The Michigan Wolverines are 10-0. They beat Gonzaga by 40, they beat Auburn by 30. They beat Villanova by 28, they beat Rutgers by 41.

To say they've had a dominant start to the season would be an understatement. They're certainly in the conversation for best team in college basketball right now.

Yaxel Lendeborg is getting some buzz for first team all-america and Wooden Award. Morez Johnson, Aday Mara and Elliot Cadeau are getting hyped up as well.

The secret weapon for the Wolverines though is freshman guard Trey McKenney. Well, now the secret is out. McKenney can flat out ball. He's a terrific glue guy for Michigan. McKenney makes winning plays on both ends of the floor. He's a freshman but plays with the IQ, poise and maturity of a senior.

I would even say he should be a lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. At thos point, I don't think I would take McKenney in the top 10 picks. But after the top 9 or 10 guys are off the board, I definitely think that drafting him is fair game.

Think about the USA Olympic team that won the gold medal in 2024. A stacked team with star talent up and down the roster. Who was the glue guy on that team though? Who was the one doing the little things, moving the ball to keep the offense flowing, playing tough, hard nosed defense?

It was Devin Booker.

How about the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics? Who was their 6'4" guard who was stocky, built rugged and strong. Who was never fazed by the bright lights and the big moments, was their glue guy who did all the little things, made winning plays, consistently hit open shots, was an excellent point of attack defender but could also guard bigger guys due to his strength, toughness and positioning and also set a high number of screens for a guard which resulted in open shots for his teammates?

Yup...Jrue Holiday.

Cason Wallace played a somewhat similar role for the 2025 NBA champs Oklahoma City Thunder. Miles McBride played a somewhat similar role over the past two or three years for the Knicks, who have been one of the top five or so teams in the league during that time. Bruce Brown on the 2023 NBA champs Nuggets - same boat.

Not everyone can be a star player. For most players who make it to the NBA, they will not be a star. So for most players, the way to stick in the league is to be a really good role player. And your chances of landing a star outside of the top 10 picks in the draft are very low. Outside of the top 10 or so picks, you're typically better off finding a really good role player.

Trey McKenney has the potential to fit the mold of what Booker brought to Team USA in 2024, what Holiday brought to the Celtics in 2024, what Wallace brought to the Thunder, what McBride brings to the Knicks and what Bruce Brown brought to the Nuggets.

To help contextualize the season McKenney is having for MIchigan and what type of player he is, let's take a loook at this chart which shows other recent college players who put up similar numbers to McKenney as a freshman:

As you can see, all of the guys who put up these numbers before McKenney went on to be drafted in the top 16 picks. McCain was the 16th pick but so far he is performing like a guy who should have been picked in the top 10. Booker was the 13th pick but had turned out to be the best player from the 2015 draft class.

Looking at some of the other players on the chart, McKenney is taller, stronger and a better defender than Dillingham. He's stronger and a better defender than Tre Johnson. He's perhaps most similar to Booker, Knueppel, Murray, McCain and possibly Monk.

Everyone has been praising Knueppel for how he's played so far in his rookie year:

Well, the player from the 2026 draft class who is most similar to Knueppel is perhaps McKenney. Knueppel is slightly taller, but McKenney has a longer wingspan (6'8.5"), is a slightly better defender and has better ball handling.

Now, let's dive into some of McKenney's film.

To start off, we're actually going to hit the rewind button and look at some of his high school film. We see a lot of what McKenney brings to the table in this sequence from a game last season vs Detroit Renaissance, which McKenney's Orchard Lake St. Mary's team won 76-75 in overtime.

In this sequence, we first see McKenney play good help defense, comes over to help on the man with the ball which forces him to miss a shot. Then, as soon as he sees his teammate grab the rebound he is off to the races, sprinting up the floor for a potential transition opportunity. McKenney beats everyone else down the floor, resulting in an easy layup - these are winning plays. Then he hustles back on defense. Then we sound positional defense, both on and off the ball. Then he rips down a defensive rebound, brings the ball up, surveys the floor and (the type of shot we have seen from a guy like Jrue Holiday many times over the years) pulls up off the dribble on a semi-transition type of play and buries a 3-pointer.

Here's some more winning plays - these are from Michigan's win over Auburn in the Player's Era Tournament. The Wolverines went on to win the tourney.

McKenney sprints back on defense, grabs the defensive rebound, immediately starts the break. Then makes a good hit ahead pass to open shooter, Will Tschetter who misses the shot but he's a good shooter and he's wide open here so that's a high quality shot. Then we see McKenney find the open space on offense, and how smooth he is with his shot prep and how quick his release is on the catch and shoot 3-pointer (this is important because when he gets to the NBA, defenses are betetr and quicker at closing out on shooters so players who are quicker and smoother with their shot prep and release have a better chance at having their shooting translate to the NBA). We see him hustling for loose balls, playing tough defense (including the ability to make effective seamless switches and defend multiple positions). Also a play where he doesn't get the rebound but does a nice job crashing the offensive glass and tipping the ball to keep the possession alive - allowing a teammate to corral the rebound, go up, get fouled and get to the free throw line. We see other plays here as well from the Auburn game where McKenney is making winning plays, doing the little things well and showing flashes of Jrue Holiday on the Celtics:

Now let's look more at his defense. First, a couple things I want to call out. One, when evaluating a prospect's defense, a think it's important to not weigh "stocks" (steals + blocks) or "defensive playmaking" too heavily.

During a given defensive possession, there's anywhere between 1 - 10 (roughly) times a particular player can either mess up, do the right thing or just be neutral (how quick does he get back on defense, how good of a closeout did he make, did he get beat back door, how well did he read the PnR, was he too far off his man off ball, how attached did he stay to his man as his man ran through the lane and went out to the opposite corner, did he box out, etc.)

Let's say on average there's five different times per defensive possession where he can either do something positive, negative or neutral. And let's say he plays on average 50 possessions per game on D. That = 250 times per game he can either do something positive, negative or neutral on defense.

250. We shouldn't over-emphasize stocks. Sure, it obviously helps. But last season VJ Edgecombe averaged 2.7 stocks/game. Cooper Flagg averaged 2.8 stocks / game. And those are guys who supposedly were awesome at getting stocks. 2.8 & 2.7 per game really isn't that many, when you consider that these guys have like 250 times per game on defense where they can do something that is either positive, negative or neutral.

It's very shortsighted and misleading if we equate a prospect's ability to play defense and read the game on defense to just the amount of stocks he gets. We're basing it all on whether he gets 1 stock per game or 2.8, while ignoring the other 245+ times each game that player did something on D that was either positive, negative or neutral

Bottom line? Stocks matter but they are only a small piece of the puzzle. To see more of a full picture and make a more thorough, accurate evaluation, we've got to watch the film.

When I watch McKenney's film, one thing that stands out is that while he might not get tons of stocks, he plays positionally sound, disciplined defense. And one thing that doesn't show up on the stat sheet is his closeouts. What usually shows up on McKenney's film is very balanced closeouts. He's not closing out too aggressively (which could result in his man blowing by him off the dribble) and he's not giving his man too much space (which would result in open jumpers and you don't want your opponent's hitting open 3's). He's typically closing out as tightly as you possibly can - without fouling and that's exactly what you're supposed to do.

Here's some more winning plays from McKenney. First in this video is a play where teammate Yaxel Lendeborg grabs a steal. When he gets the steal, McKenney is the furthest Michigan player from the basket they are shooting on. But of course, he is the one who ends up scoring on the other end. Why? Because he hustles. He plays hard. And he's alert at all times so he immediately starts sprinting up the floor as soon as Lendeborg gains possession of the basketball. On that play McKenney also smoothly shifts from the right to left side of the basket at the last second, to evade the defender and use the basket to shield off the defender. He's such a smart, savvy, winning player.

There's even the potential for McKenney to be more than just a role player glue guy, when you look closer at the film and see some of his shot creation and shot making ability. Plus you combine that with the connective passing, the defense, you think about how he's built like a truck and is just a 19 year old freshman. There's more upside than most people give him credit for. Not to mention he was a 5 star recruit and dropped 37 points in last season's game vs IMG Academy (led by Darius Acuff).

As you can see in a lot of these clips, McKenney's shot prep and the way he's able to catch a pass, rise and fire a jump shot is so darn quick and so smooth. I'd even say that in terms of shot prep and having a quick release, he's the best in this draft class:

McKenney is such a weapon on offense, look at how closely this defender was guarding him when he didn't even have the ball - and it was only the 1st quarter of the game (McKenney is the player on the red team, in the corner)

Alright, one more video. Figured why not end this thing by getting back to Jrue Holiday and how McKenney kind of plays like Holiday did in Boston. One thing Holiday was known for during that time was for setting more screens than pretty much any guard in the league, which helped free up the Celtics' shooters for open looks. Well, McKenney has been doing that since high school:

What else is there left to say? McKenney is a stud. He's Michigan's secret weapon. Well now the secret is out!

Now the only question is whether he gets drafted in 2026 or 2027. Personally, I think he's worth a lottery pick in 2026. But (while it's early in the season and still over six months from the draft) his draft stock is low - he wasn't anywhere in ESPN's top 100 ranked prospects that got published this week.

If Michigan makes a deep tournament run though and if McKenney continues to play well, his stock could rise and he could be a 1st round pick in 2026.

However, at this point it seems somewhat likely that he stays in school and plays for Michigan again next season. If that happens, he could be in for a huge sophomore season. Guys like Lendeborg, Tschetter, Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle will all be graduated, so McKenney should have a much bigger role next season. Plus next season McKenney will be another year further along in his development. He'll be even better, more skilled and more experienced as a college player. Add in the fact that the 2027 draft class is expected to be much worse than the 2026 draft class (at least in terms of the top 10-15 or so picks) and it could make sense for McKenney to return to Michigan next season and go even higher in the 2027 draft.

Regardless of whether he ends up being a one year or two year college player, McKenney is a stud. He has a chance to have a long, productive NBA career as a good role player and possibly even as a star player.

In the meantime, Michigan fans will enjoy watching him play and hopefully they'll watch him win a national championship in blue and gold!