On Saturday at 6pm CST, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky will renew their rivalry at the Murphy Center in Murfreesboro, TN. Arguably the best rivalry in Conference USA (with respect to the Battle of I-10 between Texas-El Paso and New Mexico State, which will look a lot different next year as UTEP leaves to join the Mountain West Conference), the “100 Miles of Hate” has a history going back 70+ years but really took off when MTSU joined WKU in the Sun Belt Conference in 2001.
Since then, both teams have had success in the rivalry, with the Hilltoppers having a 26-21 advantage in this century. On top of the normal rivalry drama this game usually brings, both of these teams received first-place votes in the Conference USA preseason poll and look capable of contending for the conference championship.
With the history of the rivalry and conference implications in the back your mind, here are three keys that could decide the game:
Which team will hit threes?
WKU holds their opponents to 29% from behind the arc, good for the 22nd best team in the country. MTSU is almost as good, allowing only 30% from deep (34th in the country). Neither team exactly lights it up on offense from three either, with both ranking outside the top 200 in the country by three-point shooting percentage. Enoch Kalambay from WKU might be a guy to keep an eye on here; while his 36.8% three-point shooting for the season isn’t overly impressive, he’s the best long-range shooter on either team that gets significant playing time and volume. He’s also been hot lately, scoring 43 points total in his last two games and hitting 5-9 from three.
Who controls the pace?
MTSU plays at a slightly faster-than-normal pace, ranking 94th in the country in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo metric. As I previously noted, WKU plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, coming in as the third most up-tempo team in the country. The Hilltoppers rank as the second fastest team on offense in the country and will look to outrun the Blue Raiders if they can. The MTSU bench may be called upon for a few extra minutes in this contest.
Defending Don
WKU guard Don McHenry is the Hilltoppers leading scorer. He is averaging 16.9 points a game as well as 3.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists a game this season and takes over a third of WKU's shots overall. He’s adept at drawing fouls and shoots over 80% from the line when he gets there.
My guess is Jlynn Counter will draw the defensive assignment on him, although Jestin Porter may also get a shot. Either way, the Blue Raiders will have to at least somewhat keep McHenry in check if they want to pull out a home rivalry win.