The first two months of the 2024-25 college basketball season were about as miserable as they come for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Despite an incredibly weak non-conference slate, the Gophers survived several close calls and squandered any potential opportunities to begin building a postseason resume.
The start of Big Ten wasn't any better for Minnesota. They started conference action 0-6, with a haunting double overtime defeat to Ohio State that felt like a true bottoming out point for the program. Winless in the league with a difficult schedule ahead, it felt like the Gophers were not just the clear worst team in the Big Ten, but one of the worst power conference teams in Division I basketball.
In the span of two weeks, things have completely changed. Minnesota has won three straight games, including two against ranked opponents, Michigan and league newcomer Oregon. They have climbed out of the cellar in the conference and now head into a the final week of January with real momentum for the first time all season.
What is Minnesota's gift for this sudden hot streak? The Michigan State Spartans, who sit in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten, and have their eyes on a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday. The Spartans have won eight of ten in the series between the two, and now welcome the Gophers to East Lansing, where they haven't won since 2015.
Needless to say, it will be an uphill battle for Ben Johnson and the Gophers on Tuesday night. Will the momentum be enough to overcome a notable talent disparity? Can they overcome a raucous crowd and pull an upset? The Gophers will need to play their best game of the season, and lean into what's worked over the last couple weeks if they have any hopes of springing a major upset.
1. Control the tempo and limit fastbreak opportunities
Through much of the season, Minnesota's halfcourt offense has been stagnant, lacked rhythm, and ineffective. That has suddenly changed in this win streak, and the offense has seemingly found signs of life. Of course, it helps when Dawson Garcia is playing as well as just about any big in the country, including scoring 31 points over the weekend against Oregon, but others like Lu'Cye Patterson and Femi Okudale have really elevated their play. They've shot the ball better, but alsl have played much better team offense, working the way in the halfcourt in a way we didn't see previously.
The Gophers have to be willing to slow this game down and churn their offense. I don't see how they keep up with Michigan State if this turns into a track race. The Spartans are the No. 1 team in all of Division I basketball at fastbreak points, and they'll definitely look to be outrun a Gopher team that doesn't have their depth.
Unless the Gophers find a way to shoot lights out again, I think their best path to victory is to turn this into a bit of an ugly game, and that starts with controlling their tempo offensively. Perhaps that's an uncoventional view when you're the clear underdog, but they need to limit Michigan State's opportunities as much as possible in this type of game.
2. Collapse the paint
This is a balanced Michigan State offense, but interestingly enough, they've struggled from three-point territory on the season. They're under 29% on the season, and their top scorer, Jaden Akins, has really struggled with his three-point shot. He's long been known as a sharpshooter, but he's also just 29% - the worst of his career.
Given those three-point shooting woes, Minnesota has to be okay with packing the paint and forcing the Spartans to shoot their way to a win. Collapsing defensively will also mitigate Michigan State's clear advantage on the glass, as they rank 11th nationally by bringing in nearly 41 total rebounds per game.
Of course, with collapsing the paint, Minnesota has to be careful of foul trouble for their bigs, especially with their lack of depth. A couple fouls on Dawson Garcia and this entire game changes.
3. Make the free ones
Any Gopher can attest the program has a infuriating tradition of poor free throw shooting in important, close games. It has been a recurring theme throughout the Ben Johnson years and even before that, when Richard Pitino was coaching this team. Look no further than the Ohio State game as evidence, when the Gophers could have closed out the game multiple times if they made their free ones, but instead helped the Buckeyes stick around and eventually pull out the win.
Free throw shooting has been a problem all season for Minnesota. They rank near the bottom of all of Division I basketball, shooting 63.9% from the stripe. That includes some very poor numbers for some of their important contributors, such as Okudale and Parker Fox. In a game like this, where they are already at a disadvantage, you can't be missing free throws. Perhaps getting away from Williams Arena, where their shooting has been shockingly bad, may actually be a good thing.
Between Michigan State's impressive start to Big Ten play and Minnesota's consistent struggles in this series, it's no surprise the Spartans enter Tuesday night as comfortable favorites. But the sudden hot steak from the Gophers does make this at least an interesting one, and they're playing like a team with nothing to lose. If they can slow down the Spartans and turn this into a physical, grind of a game, they may have a chance to spring a huge upset.