Following an abysmal second season, Head Coach Dennis Gates cobbled together a roster this past season that, once again, found the Missouri Tigers (22-12) back in the NCAA Tournament. Expectations were high, but measured, entering the season, and by the end of the non-conference schedule, the Tigers had far exceeded what many thought they could achieve. The season got off to a rocky start, dropping the opening game at Memphis, but after that initial loss, Missouri rattled off ten straight wins, including an upset over then No.1 Kansas - proving the Tigers would be a tough team to beat.
Last season, Missouri’s offense was one of the best in the country - the Tigers averaged the ninth most points (83.6 ppg), had the 26th best field goal percentage (48.2%), the 44th best three point percentage (38.7%), and the second most free throws made per game (19.7). The offense kept Missouri in the hunt for a conference title for most of the season, but after facing the gauntlet that was the SEC schedule, Missouri faded down the stretch. However, the Tigers were still more than good enough to earn their second NCAA Tournament bid in three years.
Unfortunately for Missouri, the team's season ended unceremoniously after dropping its first-round game to Drake. Even though Missouri bowed out of the NCAA Tournament on the first weekend, last season is regarded as a success for Gates and once again gave the Tigers something to build upon for the next season.
Much like the past few years, the offseason saw a litany of changes for Gates and Co.; Missouri saw some role players (Aidan Shaw, Peyton Marshall, and Marcus Allen) leave via the transfer portal. And the Tigers also saw a handful of players exhaust their eligibility, leaving some major holes to be filled throughout the offseason. Newcomers Tony Perkins, Marques Warrick, and Josh Gray were some of these departing seniors, but the biggest losses were Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill, who both landed in the NBA. To fill these roster holes, Dennis Gates did what he does best - pluck talent from the transfer portal. Gates brought in Sebastian Mack, Jevon Porter, Shawn Phillips, Luke Northweather, and Jayden Stone to complete his roster.
As we enter the final month without college basketball, here is a look at what the potential starting line-up, some key reserves, a quick look at the schedule, and overall outlook on what this Missouri team can achieve this season.
Projected Starting Five
Guard - Anthony Robinson II
Anthony Robinson is poised to take on an even larger role this upcoming season, after having a breakout year as a Sophomore. Robinson averaged 9.0 ppg last season as a third and sometimes fourth scoring option. Without stars Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill on the roster, Robinson should be expected to take on a larger scoring role. But his scoring won’t be his most valuable aspect to this team. Robinson is one of the top defensive guards in the SEC. Last season, he averaged 2.0 spg, which ranked second in the conference, but he led the SEC with a 5.1 steal percentage. Another solid season on both ends of the court can only mean good things for the Tigers and Robinson moving forward.
Guard - Sebastian Mack
Sebastian Mack arrived in Columbia this offseason after spending the past two years at UCLA. As a freshman, he averaged 12.1 ppg as a starter, but saw his numbers shrink as a sophomore when he moved to the bench. As a backup, Mack’s scoring average dropped to 9.6 ppg, but he saw his shooting averages increase by roughly four percent. Mack might not be the same type of guard most Dennis Gates teams typically have (one that lives behind the arc), though he is a solid scorer inside the three-point line (45% career) and draws a ton of fouls. A career average of nearly five free throw attempts per game will help him fit right in at Mizzou.
Forward - Mark Mitchell
Mark Mitchell quickly turned into one of Missouri’s best two-way players last season - leading the team in scoring, averaging 13.9 ppg, while also playing lockdown defense and averaging 1.0 spg. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t do the same again this year, now that a couple of big playmakers have moved on from the program. It will be interesting to see exactly how he’s used moving forward. In many games last season, Mitchell was used as the primary scoring big even though he was wildly undersized. Even then, he made the most of his rim opportunities - making just over 55% from inside the arc. Mitchell also lived at the free throw line, averaging 6.4 attempts per game.
Forward - Trent Pierce
Trent Pierce shot 33% from deep last season, nearly doubling his three-point percentage from his freshman year. His improvements didn’t stop there; he increased his scoring average by almost five points and saw nearly all of his stats improve, all while taking on a much larger role. He’s a decent defender and rebounder, but his biggest contributions were and should continue to be on the offensive end. Pierce is great in transition and does a solid job driving to the rim, but his ability to knock down threes will keep him on the court. A consistent deep ball from Pierce should solidify Missouri, once again, as one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country.
Center - Shawn Phillips Jr
Shawn Phillips, a transfer from Arizona State, is the only true big man on the roster with any power conference experience, which likely slots him into the starting center spot. His role this season should be similar to the one Josh Gray played last season, without the physicality. Phillips is a decent scorer at the rim - making just over 57% from inside the arc last season - but isn’t going to be much of an offensive threat from outside of 10 feet. He’s a good rebounder (5.2 rpg last season), but is often a liability on defense, which should open the door for a couple of the younger bigs on the roster to sneak in some extra minutes.
Key Reserves
Jacob Crews
Crews didn’t play consistent minutes until the second half of the season, but over those games, he played nearly 15 minutes per game and finally started to connect from deep with consistency. During the final month of the regular season, Crews was hitting nearly 43 percent of his shots from deep and 60 percent from inside the arc, while scoring just over 8 points per game. A quicker start to the season and consistent three-point shooting from Crews should keep Missouri’s offense rolling.
Jevon Porter
Porter put up big numbers in the WCC - averaging 12.5 points and 7.2 rebounds a season ago at Loyola Marymount. Although his minutes and averages will likely drop this season, he should still be a solid scoring threat off the bench. Much like Pierce, Jevon Porter is a stretch forward capable of hitting big shots from behind the arc. Porter is a career 32% three-point shooter, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see his efficiency numbers tick up with a reduced role.
T.O. Barrett
Barrett appeared in 19 games for Missouri last season, but never really gained traction in the rotation with Robinson and Tony Perkins serving as the lead ball handlers. This season, Barrett should serve as the backup point guard, which will give us a better idea of what he’s capable of offensively. He flashed his defensive abilities a few times last season, with his best effort coming against Auburn, where he recorded three steals in 13 minutes.
Annor Boateng
Boateng looked like he was going to play a big role for Missouri last season, starting seven games early in the season. But he struggled to get on the court for the remainder of the year. He did showcase his athleticism early on, even if he didn’t always light up the boxscore, other than putting up 10 points in a 72-point beatdown of MVSU. Nevertheless, another summer in Columbia working with Dennis Gates should help his game improve this season.
Trent Burns
Burns missed all of last season, but the 7’5” former top-100 prospect should have plenty of opportunities to impact the Tigers’ season with only one other true big man on the roster. Burns isn’t the bulkiest player, but he’s capable of stepping out and knocking down a perimeter shot when needed. However, his biggest impact could be on the defensive end as a rim protector.
Jayden Stone
Stone spent last season at West Virginia but missed the entire season, so what he brings to a power conference program is still unknown. However, he proved to be a high-volume scorer in the Horizon League. As the primary scorer during his second season at Detroit Mercy, Stone averaged nearly 21 points per game. He’s more than willing to let it fly from deep, so he should be able to step right into the Missouri offense at a slightly lower usage rate than he’s used to.
Schedule Outlook
Missouri has an extremely manageable non-conference schedule, and the Tigers should rack up a bunch of wins early in the season. As has been his approach since arriving in Columbia, Dennis Gates filled the first two months of the season with mostly mid and low major programs, with games against Minnesota, Notre Dame, Kansas, and Illinois sprinkled in throughout. Luckily for the Tigers, nearly every non-con game will be played in the friendly confines of Mizzou Arena, with only two games being true road games - the season-opening game against Howard in Washington, DC, and against Notre Dame in South Bend for the SEC/ACC Challenge. Other than those games, Mizzou only hits the road two more times - Kansas City to take on hated rival Kansas and St. Louis for the annual game against Illinois.
The Tigers should have a solid record, likely 10 to 12 wins, entering the SEC slate. Missouri takes on, arguably, the two best teams in the conference, Florida and Kentucky, to kick off conference play, but things get slightly better from there. The Tigers have a couple of tough road games - at Alabama, Texas A&M, and Kentucky - but most of the games against the top tier of the conference will be played at home. Even though this year's SEC shouldn’t be quite the juggernaut that it was a season ago, it should still be one of the top conferences in the nation. Missouri will need to play consistent basketball, but the Tigers should once again finish in the top half of the SEC. And if the offense is as potent as it was last year, with an improved defense, Mizzou should be one of the toughest teams to beat in the country.
Missouri basketball season outlook
The Tigers lost a large portion of their scoring from a season ago, but Dennis Gates did a great job this offseason putting together a roster that wouldn’t be dependent solely on a single player to keep the offense running. He has a ton of returning talent and experience in Anthony Robinson and Mark Mitchell to build upon, and that's not to overlook Trent Pierce and Jacob Crews. Newcomers Sebastian Mack and Jevon Porter have huge upsides and could quickly become important pieces in the offense. And the young returners showed flashes of their talent a season ago and should become regular contributors after another summer in the system.
The offense should once again be super efficient, even if it isn’t quite as potent from behind the arc. That’s not to say that the Tigers can’t be one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country. Crews and Pierce are more than capable of knocking down multiple threes every time they touch the court. And the additions of Porter and Jayden Stone give the Tigers two more solid deep threats.
Defensively, the Tigers should be better than they were a year ago. Robinson and Mitchell are already two great defenders, and the addition of Mack, as well as Pierce taking another step forward on that end of the court, should solidify Mizzou’s perimeter defense. There are concerns about the team defending the interior, but that isn’t necessarily something new for a Dennis Gates-led Missouri team.
Expectations for Missouri were all over the place this time last season, and rightfully so. But Gates and the Tigers bounced back in a big way and fought their way back to the NCAA Tournament. There’s no reason why a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament isn’t in the cards for Missouri. A weak non-conference schedule and somewhat easier SEC slate should allow Missouri to rack up quite a few wins this season, though the Tigers will need to stay focused throughout the season.