NC State heads to Kansas for a tough matchup in Lawrence; will they get more of their magic from last season’s postseason run or do the Jayhawks take care of business once again on their homecourt?
TV schedule: Saturday, December 14, 3:15 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas
Last year’s magic doesn’t affect this season, but NC State (7-3) won’t soon forget that ACC Tournament title or run to the Final Four, even if several pieces from that team aren’t in Raleigh any longer. This year’s squad won their first five games before losing to Purdue, BYU, and Texas in three straight games, coming up short when playing stronger opposition. Suffice to say they’ll need to dig deep in this matchup.
After sensational play as a freshman at Bowling Green, Marcus Hill (13.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg) joined the Wolfpack in the offseason and has been a much-needed addition on both ends of the court. Jayden Taylor (12.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg) remains a starter after last season’s success, though his long-range shooting numbers aren’t that great. There’s a lot of new blood in the frontcourt, though Ben Middlebrooks (9.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg) is back this season and is the best interior weapon for the Wolfpack.
You won’t find NC State anywhere near the national rankings while they sit 78th in KenPom and outside of the Top 100 in the NET. They’ve taken care of the games they’ve been expected to win, but there have certainly been struggles. This team didn’t make a 3-pointer in a win over Coastal Carolina and the interior offense was brutalized by BYU just a few weeks. Can those bigs really compare in these upcoming games?
The story isn’t dire, although Kansas (7-2) would certainly like to make a statement on Saturday after significant troubles last week. The Jayhawks beat North Carolina, Michigan State, and then Duke in November before losing back-to-back road matchups at Creighton and Missouri to kick start the new month. Much like last season, this team is filled with talent and potential but concerns are growing once more.
Despite his gaudy numbers, one of those concerns lies with Hunter Dickinson (15.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg), the 7-foot All-American center who does great things on the court but hasn’t been himself in recent outings, including a rough showing against Creighton. The story of these Jayhawks is incomplete without mentioning Dajuan Harris Jr. (10.7 ppg, 5.9 apg), the crafty point guard who’s a key cog on both sides of the ball. Among a crew of new talent, Lawrence native Zeke Mayo (10.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg) has really shined after transferring from South Dakota State
Those two losses saw Kansas fall from the top spot down to #10 in the AP Top 25. The Jayhawks stand at 11th in KenPom and 18th in the NET rankings even with those three impressive wins earlier in the season. The defense is among the most efficient in the nation though this offense has shown cracks, with some tough shooting days in recent weeks.
Even coming off a pair of losses, Kansas certainly has the edge in this matchup. The Wolfpack haven’t yet beaten this level of opponent, with their only power conference win coming in overtime at home over Florida State. NC State doesn’t have that same magic or talent from last season. Middlebrooks and the rest of that frontcourt should get outworked by Dickinson and the rest of a very solid defense.
However, we can’t act like the Jayhawks are some perfect team and they certainly can get upended at home if NC State shoots lights out and get bothered by Dickinson like Creighton last week. With how this interior offense fared in their last win over Coppin State, don’t expect a miracle from the Wolfpack. We should have an exciting game that Kansas takes without too much issue at home, leaving NC State still looking for that breakthrough performance.
Prediction: Kansas 77, NC State 62