With conference play in full swing and the first half of the 2024-25 regular season in the books, we have plenty of sample size baked into predictive metrics and resume-based metrics to analyze where a team stands -- and why or why not their metrics vary across its NCAA Tournament team sheets. While varied metrics aren’t uncommon once Selection Sunday approaches, it can be the ultimate difference-maker for a.) its seed line or b.) whether it gets into the NCAA Tournament or not.
Simply put, having varied metrics is like playing with fire. For example, Gonzaga earned a five seed in the NCAA Tournament last season despite finishing in the top 12 in KenPom. New Mexico finished 29th in KenPom but needed to win the MWC Tournament in order to get into the field while South Carolina, who finished 54th in KenPom, earned a six seed due to its strong resume average.
Here, we will take a look at five NCAA Tournament-level teams and analyze why their metrics have become so varied throughout the first half of the season.
Cincinnati Bearcats
KenPom: 38
BartTorvik: 44
NET: 41
Resume average: 68.3
The Cincinnati Bearcats have gotten off to a woeful start in Big 12 play, falling to 0-4 in conference play after it mustered just 40 points at home versus Kansas on Saturday. There’s no denying the talent level of this group -- and its strong predictive metrics illustrate that. The Bearcats are 38th in KenPom, 44th in BartTorvik and 41st in the NET. These are all decent (albeit not great) at-large-worthy predictive metrics that would, under normal circumstances, warrant an at-large conversation.
But its resume average is the reason why the Bearcats' NCAA Tournament hopes are beyond repair at the current moment. Its resume average has free-fallen and is inching closer and closer to the 70s -- far from an ideal number if it wants to get back into the NCAA Tournament conversation. With zero Q1 wins and a NET OOC SOS at 272, the fact of the matter is simple: Cincinnati must string together quality wins if it wants to improve its NCAA Tournament odds. Even if the Big 12 is down relative to its past years, there are still opportunities to get back on track. But with each game passing by, the margin of error continues to shrink.
Michigan Wolverines
KenPom: 10
BartTorvik: 8
NET: 11
Resume average: 20.7
The Michigan Wolverines have moved to a pristine 5-0 in Big Ten play -- and have cemented themselves as the top teams in the Big Ten -- after taking care of business against Washington on Sunday. With predictive metrics near the top 10, one would think the Wolverines are in play for a two-seed. But that isn’t the case. At least not yet.
With a resume average of 20.7, the Wolverines currently stand as a five seed according to the most recent update of the 2025 Bracket Matrix. However, given this weekend's results, it's likely that they jump a seed line on the next update.
Its three losses (which have come from a combined five points) and a strong 17.10 scoring margin have positioned the Wolverines to boast strong predictive metrics for the remainder of the season. Yet, it will need its resume metrics to catch up to speed if it wants to continue to move up seed lines come Selection Sunday. Its most pivotal stretch of the season starts in February, which will feature six straight Q1 games. If Michigan can find a way to snatch three or more wins during that stretch, the Wolverines will be in a good position to avoid being under-seeded come March.
Maryland Terrapins
KenPom: 22
BartTorvik: 16
NET: 22
Resume average: 48
The Maryland Terrapins are a top-25 level team across the board thanks to its revamped, perimeter-oriented backcourt supplemented by one of the top freshmen in the Big Ten, Derik Queen, down low. Despite this, the Terrapins do not have enough quality wins to prove that. According to KenPom, Kevin Willard’s club has the second-worst NCSOS in the entire country. Eight of its 11 non-conference games were versus Q4 opponents. These are the types of numbers that spell doom if the Terrapins find themselves squarely on the bubble.
While Maryland would be safely inside the field of 68 if the season were to end today, a resume average of 48 and zero true road wins is not something to hang our hat on. Despite its strong predictive metrics, it cannot be one's saving grace. St. John’s, for example, finished last season ranked 21st in KenPom but didn’t earn an at-large bid in the shortened field (thanks to bid stealers). The Terrapins still have work to do if they want to feel safe come Selection Sunday. But in the grueling Big Ten, they will have plenty of opportunities to prove it.
Houston Cougars
KenPom: 3
BartTorvik: 1
NET: 3
Resume average: 31.3
The extreme variance of Houston’s resume falls directly onto one factor: Zero Q1 wins. The Cougars are among the top teams in the country -- its top three predictive metrics illustrate that -- but its lack of high-end wins has put a ceiling on the Cougars’ resume for now. After losing all three of its only Q1 games (its only three losses of the season), its resume average is just 31.3.
Because of this, the Cougars have found themselves hovering near the five/six seed line in recent bracketolgies. T3’s Bracketology’s latest seed list has the Cougars sitting on the first six seed line. While it's subject to change, Houston has 10 remaining Q1 games on its schedule. That's more than enough to bump its resume average closer to its predictive metrics, which would help Houston out tremendously in regard to its seeding.
The committee has been shown to punish lower-end resume metrics in the past. In 2022, Houston was 2nd in KenPom but had just one Q1 win. That ultimately proved to be its demise as the Cougars earned a five seed in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, but would still march along to the Elite Eight. In hindsight, Houston should be just fine. But this is a trend worth monitoring as the season progresses.
Utah State Aggies
KenPom: 43
BartTorvik: 49
NET: 31
Resume average: 12.3
The winning factory in Logan, Utah continues with first-year HC Jerrod Calhoun having the Utah State Aggies off to a blistering 16-1 start thanks to a spectacular four-point play from Ian Martinez in its 81-79 win over Boise State on Saturday. With a strong resume average of 12.3, the Aggies are in an excellent position to earn a single-digit seed come Selection Sunday. But varied predictive metrics have kept the Aggies from taking that big jump seed-wise.
Despite owning four Q1 wins, the computers aren’t fond of Utah State. While its predictive metrics aren’t necessarily at a catastrophic level, they don’t do enough justice for how good this team really is -- and can be -- moving forward. While the six-bid MWC dream isn’t alive this year, the Aggies still have seven Q1/Q2 opportunities remaining, however, a few slip-ups in its Q3/Q4 matchups can prove to be lethal for a team in a position to earn a strong seed.
Utah State has a strong collection of wins -- Iowa, Saint Mary’s and San Diego State -- and has built a comfortable cushion from the bubble. But the Aggies would be playing with fire if it doesn’t take care of business in the lower half of the MWC.