In late December, Middle Tennessee State headed to Knoxville to take on a number-one-ranked Tennessee team. For 30 minutes, the Blue Raiders gave UT everything the Volunteers could handle; MTSU led by six at the half and was within one score halfway through the second half. Eventually, the more talented Tennessee team righted the ship and pulled away for a comfortable win, although the final score wasn’t indicative of how close the majority of the game was.
This game - and MTSU - was a microcosm of the rise of Conference USA basketball this season: much improved from last year, even if they aren't on the same level as the power conferences. Last year CUSA finished ranked 15th by KenPom’s Conference Ratings. So far this year, CUSA is the ninth-best conference, according to KenPom. Their six-spot jump is the largest of any conference this year; CUSA is ranked ahead of other mid-major conferences, such as the American Athletic and the Missouri Valley Conferences, which are generally considered superior basketball conferences. Nine of the ten teams that make up the conference finished the calendar year with winning non-conference records.
The rise of the CUSA basketball isn’t necessarily a surprise; Busting Brackets' own Steven Bagell highlighted the conference’s turbulent recent history and expected growth back in August. However, it’s been remarkable how evenly the growth has been. The CUSA finished ranked 10th in KenPom’s rating two years ago, but that was largely due to Florida Atlantic’s meteoric rise and run to the Final Four and a solid North Texas team; both departed for the American Athletic after that season.
This year’s version doesn’t have any dominant teams but boasts several teams that have improved substantially since last year. Middle Tennessee State is probably the best example of this, rising almost 130 spots in KenPom ratings from last year. Despite the game ending in a loss, the MTSU-UT game was a good example of how competitive the conference has become. Conference members boast wins over New Mexico, Kansas State, Rutgers and a solid mid-major squad in McNeese State.
Despite the improvement, the CUSA will probably remain a one-bid conference when the NCAA tournament is unveiled. Their best hope for a second bid is Liberty - who currently sporting a CUSA best NET ranking of 65 - wins most or all of its remaining conference games, loses a close game in the conference championship game to someone like Middle Tennessee State or Texas-El Paso and still gets a bid. This would require the committee to overlook their middling (for an NCAA tourney at large bid) metrics profile and lack of any major wins in favor of their gaudy overall record. Unlikely, to be sure, but certainly not out of the question, and a much better position to be in than they were a year ago.
CUSA’s continued basketball success will hinge on the conference and its members navigating the normal pitfalls of mid-major conferences: namely, successful coaches making the jump to more prestigious jobs and schools looking to move into a more lucrative conference. CUSA has done a good job at rebuilding after the departure of several of its better members in 2023; their longest-tenured member (UTEP) is slated to join the Mountain West in 2026. Reinforcements in the way of Delaware and Missouri State will join in 2025, but it remains to be seen how much of a bump to basketball these teams will be.