NCAA Basketball: Preview and Predictions for 2024 Fort Myers Tip-Off

The seventh-annual Fort Myers Tip-Off begins on Monday, Nov. 25th in the dazzling 3,500-seat Suncoast Credit Union Arena in Fort Myers, Florida. The eight-team event will be divided into two divisions: Beach Division (high-major) and Palms Division (mid-major) and will feature high-profile matchups with resume-boosting implications, bringing plenty of intrigue to the table with Feast Week in full swing.

Here, we will focus on the Beach Division, including team-by-team previews and game-by-game predictions as the event takes off.

Michigan Wolverines (4-1)

The Michigan Wolverines enter the fold at 4-1 with its lone hiccup to Wake Forest in Greensboro, North Carolina. Mostly, things have gone well for first-year HC Dusty May. Its offense boasts an impressive 61.5 effective field goal percentage and the Wolverines have had balanced scoring efforts throughout its first five games.

Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson has emerged as the team’s leading scorer. Alabama transfer Sam Walters has been excellent off the bench. The Danny Wolf/Vlad Goldin combo may need some time to work out and the Wolverines have struggled to take care of the basketball but this is clearly a top-half Big Ten team that will be looking to put forth two quality wins during Feast Week.

South Carolina Gamecocks (3-2)

After last season’s surprise success in which the South Carolina Gamecocks won 26 games, including 13 in SEC play, Lamont Paris’ group was expected to take a step back in the grueling SEC. And that has been the case so far.

The Gamecocks dropped its first game on opening night in North Florida and fell behind big early in Bloomington, trailing by double-digits for most of the game. One bright spot for the Gamecocks has been Collin Murray-Boyles, who entered the 2024-25 season with high expectations after a stellar freshman season. Murray-Boyles, averaging 15.8 PPG and 9.4 RPG, will need to step up if the Gamecocks want to make noise in Fort Myers.

Virginia Tech Hokies (3-2)

The Virginia Tech Hokies were gutted in the transfer portal this offseason. They lost its presumed starting PG Hysier Miller after being dismissed from the team amid Temple’s ongoing gambling probe. They lost its transfer portal commitment, Jordan Ivy-Curry, to UCF.

Despite its 3-0 start, the Hokies have dropped back-to-back games: a 22-point loss to Penn State and a deflating home loss to Jacksonville, getting outscored 45-25 in the second half. All signs point to a long year in Blacksburg. Mylyjael Poteat and VCU transfer Toibu Lawal have been pleasant breakout surprises. Still, it's abundantly clear that the talent level for the Hokies -- who are a KenPom sub-100 team -- is behind the rest of the pack not only in the Fort Myers Tip-Off but in the rest of the ACC.

Xavier Musketeers (5-0)

Despite its pristine 5-0 record, the Xavier Musketeers started slowly in early November, struggling with Texas Southern and IUPUI (hence, its poor metrics). Despite falling to the injury bug once again with LBSU transfer Lassina Traore out for the season, things have looked better as of late with the Musketeers getting superb production from Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell, who is averaging 18.2 PPG on 52.6% shooting from three.

With Zach Freemantle back in the fold and the Musketeers shooting 43.4% from behind the arc as a team, the offense is unquestionably the identity for this group. And that will need to be the case as it takes the court on Monday.

Semifinal #1 prediction: Virginia Tech vs. Michigan: Monday, 5:00 p.m. CT F21

Michigan has the talent to run away with this one early but it will be interesting to see how the Hokies respond after its past two lackluster performances. Both teams have struggled with turnovers, meaning there’s a chance this could get ugly at times. Mylyjael Poteat and Voibu Lawal could provide troubles on the wings for Michigan but the Wolverines' backcourt trio of Donaldson, Burnett and Gayle Jr. will prove too much for the embattled Hokies.

Prediction: Michigan 82 Virginia Tech 65

Semifinal #2 prediction: South Carolina vs. Xavier: Monday, 7:30 p.m. CT FS1

This matchup screams sneaky good. On one hand, Xavier has proven to be a lethal commodity from three. On the other hand, Xavier has struggled to defend the three. South Carolina may not have the offensive weapons to be a reliable perimeter threat in this game but its window to make some noise from three is evident. Collin Murray-Boyles and Ryan Conwell may steal the headlines but this a game that could come down to secondary-scoring options on both teams. This one may be closer than initially expected but expect the Musketeers to pull away late.

Prediction: Xavier 77 South Carolina 72

3rd place game prediction: South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech

In a pivotal game with both teams looking to avoid a 0-2 trip in Fort Myers, South Carolina will look for Collin Murray-Boyles to set the tone early. The Hokies are inexperienced in the backcourt and have struggled with turnovers, which spells doom against a South Carolina squad that has forced 10+ turnovers in each of its three wins with Jamarii Thomas -- who earned 2023-24 MEAC POY at Norfolk State -- averaging two steals per game. Virginia Tech may be able to keep this close for a while but it won’t have enough to sustain a quality 40-minute effort.

Prediction: South Carolina 75  Virginia Tech 61

Championship game prediction: Xavier vs. Michigan

Michigan’s three-guard starting backcourt versus Ryan Conwell and Dayvion McKnight. Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin versus Zach Freemantle. Plenty of individual matchup intrigue here. With both offenses humming, we will likely see a high-scoring affair in the Fort Myers Tip-Off championship game.

If past precedents hold -- such as Utah/Mississippi State in 2022 and Ohio State/Florida (the infamous Tyree Appleby buzzer-beater in 2021 -- expect another close one here in the championship game. Even if Xavier hasn’t put all its pieces together (just yet), I will continue to buy long-term stock into the Musketeers until proven otherwise.

Prediction: Xavier 84 Michigan 80