I say this every week as the calendar gets closer to conference tournaments and ultimately Selection Sunday, but the results each week grow bigger. Now that we are into February, we are a little over four weeks from the start of conference tournaments. That means the historically one- or two-bid leagues are coming down the home stretch of their regular seasons. While those leagues have big games, this week’s theme is big for another reason.
This week was about big matchups that continue to shape the top of the field, especially in the Big Ten. It began on Tuesday with Michigan handing Nebraska its first loss, a game in which the Cornhuskers held the Wolverines at arm’s length until Michigan ended the game on a 16-6 run. Also on Tuesday, Michigan State needed overtime to beat Rutgers, and Indiana got a signature win over Purdue. Then on Friday, Michigan bookended that win with a win at Michigan State, solidifying their spot on the top seed line. On Saturday, Indiana got a much-needed road win in double overtime at UCLA. After such a big week in the Big Ten, what does the field look like?
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego
1.) Arizona vs. 16.) Bethune Cookman/UMES
8.) SMU vs. 9.) Wisconsin
Tampa
5.) Florida vs. 12.) Liberty
4.) Virginia vs. 13.) Stephen F. Austin
Portland
6.) Auburn vs. 11.) Indiana/San Diego State
3.) Gonzaga vs. 14.) North Dakota State
St. Louis
7.) UCF vs. 10.) Georgia
2.) Illinois vs. 15.) Portland State
No. 1 Arizona began the week with a huge road win at BYU and finished it by taking care of rival Arizona State. The sweep solidifies their spot as the No. 1 overall seed and the top seed in the West Region. After a big win over Saint Mary’s on Saturday, Gonzaga is the No. 3 seed in this region, with the chance to climb even higher given that teams ahead of them in the Big Ten and Big 12 will likely beat each other down the stretch.
East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville
1.) Duke vs. 16.) UMBC/Merrimack
8.) Iowa vs. 9.) Saint Mary's
San Diego
5.) Alabama vs. 12.) Belmont
4.) Texas Tech vs. 13.) UC-Irvine
Buffalo
6.) St. John's vs. 11.) Miami (OH)
3.) Michigan State vs. 14.) Wright State
St. Louis
7.) Clemson vs. 10.) Ohio State
2.) Iowa State vs. 15.) Austin Peay
The No. 1 seed in the East Region, Duke also picked up a pair of victories this week, running their record in quad 1 games to 9-1. First, they dismantled Louisville by 31 on Monday and picked up a road win at Virginia Tech on Saturday. The East Region is the region of defense, with five of the top 22 teams in defensive efficiency are in this region. Duke is 4th, and No. 2 seed Iowa State is two spots below at 6th. The No. 3 Michigan State Spartans are the second-best team in the country in this metric, and St. John’s is 22nd as the No. 6 seed.
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Buffalo
1.) Michigan vs. 16.) Long Island
8.) Texas A&M vs. 9.) Villanova
Tampa
5.) North Carolina vs. 12.) Yale
4.) Vanderbilt vs. 13.) UNC Wilmington
Greenville
6.) Arkansas vs. 11.) Miami/Texas
3.) Purdue vs. 14.) Winthrop
Oklahoma City
7.) Saint Louis vs. 10.) USC
2.) Houston vs. 15.) East Tennessee State
Perhaps nobody in the country had a bigger week than the top seed in the Midwest Region, the Michigan Wolverines. On Tuesday, they completed a huge comeback against Nebraska in a battle that could be seen as a battle for the top seed in this region. Then, in the marquee matchup of Friday night, they got the better of rival Michigan State in East Lansing. After being picked to finish 13th in the SEC, Bucky McMillan’s Texas A&M Aggies find themselves at 17-4, atop the SEC and the No. 8 seed in this region. After a slow start, Bucky Ball is rolling, winners of 10 of their last 11.
South Region (Houston)
Philadelphia
1.) UConn vs. 16.) Navy
8.) Utah State vs 9.) NC State
Portland
5.) Tennessee vs. 12.) Charlotte
4.) BYU vs. 13.) Troy
Philadelphia
6.) Louisville vs. 11.) UCLA
3.) Kansas vs. 14.) UT-Arlington
Oklahoma City
7.) Kentucky vs. 10.) New Mexico
2.) Nebraska vs. 15.) Tennessee-Martin
The No. 1 seed in the South remains the UConn Huskies. They picked up two more wins this week over Providence and Creighton. They now have a 13-1 record in the first two quads, but eight of those wins are by single digits, including two in overtime. With other teams on their heels for that final No. 1 seed, this propensity for close games could bite them. Behind UConn, the rest of the top seeds in the South could be characterized as the Jekyll and Hyde region. Teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, NC State, and Louisville are all in the South, and all have shown flashes of second-weekend potential and potential to miss the field entirely.
The Bubble
Last four in
Big wins by Indiana, Miami, and Texas have gotten them on the right side of the bubble as we begin February. Indiana has back-to-back wins over Purdue and UCLA to make their leap. Texas has a 20-point win over Georgia and escaped a trap game at Oklahoma. Miami split its trip to Stanford and Cal, but thanks to Cal’s loss to Florida State, the Canes remain in the field. San Diego State is the final team in the field after its loss to Utah State, pulling the Aztecs, Aggies, and New Mexico into a three-way tie in the Mountain West.
The wrong side of the bubble
Three teams that can’t seem to find their footing lead the teams that just missed the cut. Missouri, Virginia Tech, and California are all on the wrong side of the bubble. Missouri is just 3-3 over its last six, a mark that is matched by Virginia Tech. Going back even further, Cal is just 4-5 over its last nine, but with the bubble being so precarious this time of year, things can change in a hurry. The other team that is just outside the field is Santa Clara, who, at 19-5, is second in the WCC, waiting for teams ahead of them to falter. February offers a big opportunity for the Broncos, with games against Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and San Francisco. A couple of Atlantic 10 teams are in the next four out. Both VCU and George Mason are here as they both keep winning games, as teams ahead of them can’t decide if they want to be in the field or not. The other two teams in this group are TCU and Seton Hall. After good wins over Baylor and Oklahoma State, TCU took a step back against Houston. After losing four straight, Seton Hall got much-needed wins over Xavier and Marquette to stay in the conversation for the time being.