NCAA Tournament bracket: 5 high-profile teams on upset alert with the Big Dance here

Selection Sunday always brings excitement, relief and anticipation across the college basketball world. Sixty-eight teams hear their names called and immediately begin dreaming about cutting down nets in April.

But the NCAA Tournament also brings pressure, especially for high-profile programs with national expectations. For every powerhouse hoping to make a deep run, there is always the possibility that the first weekend ends those dreams far sooner than expected.

That reality is part of what makes March Madness so captivating. Matchups matter. Styles collide. Momentum shifts quickly. And every year, several favorites discover that the bracket can be far more dangerous than it first appeared.

The 2026 NCAA Tournament field is full of talented teams and dangerous underdogs, and several big-name programs already appear to be facing tricky opening-round games.

Here are five teams that could be on upset alert when the tournament begins.

5. (7) Miami Hurricanes vs (10) Missouri Tigers - West Region

Miami enters the tournament as a narrow 2.5-point favorite against Missouri, and that spread reflects how competitive this matchup could become.

The Hurricanes, led by head coach Jai Lucas, have relied heavily on guard play throughout the season. Miami averages more than 78 points per game and has been at its best when its backcourt is creating offense in transition and from the perimeter.

Missouri, however, may have one of the biggest situational advantages of any team in the opening round.

The Tigers will play their first-round game in nearby St. Louis, just a short drive from campus in Columbia. That proximity could give Missouri a noticeable crowd advantage and create a near home-court environment in the early stages of the tournament.

Missouri also thrives when games turn into track meets. The Tigers average over 80 points per contest and can quickly erase deficits with explosive scoring runs.

If the Tigers get the crowd behind them and dictate tempo, Miami could suddenly find itself in a hostile environment that feels far different than a neutral court.

4. (8) Clemson Tigers vs (9) Iowa Hawkeyes - South Region

The classic 8-9 matchup rarely disappoints in March, and Clemson against Iowa could easily turn into one of the most competitive games of the opening round.

Oddsmakers opened Iowa as a slight 2.5-point favorite, essentially labeling the game a toss-up.

Iowa’s offense has been one of the most productive in the country, averaging more than 82 points per game. When the Hawkeyes get into rhythm offensively, they can overwhelm opponents with pace and perimeter scoring.

Clemson, coached by Brad Brownell, takes a far different approach. The Tigers rely on physical defense and half-court execution, allowing fewer than 70 points per game.

When contrasting styles meet in the NCAA Tournament, the result often becomes a tense battle where one late run determines the winner.

3. (8) Ohio State Buckeyes vs (9) TCU Horned Frogs - East Region

Ohio State and TCU might not be the flashiest matchup in the bracket, but it could quietly become one of the most intense games of the opening round.

The Buckeyes enter as a narrow 2.5-point favorite after a strong finish to the season helped secure their NCAA Tournament bid. Head coach Jake Diebler has emphasized defense and balanced scoring during that late push.

Ohio State averages around 75 points per game while holding opponents near 69, numbers that reflect a team comfortable grinding out possessions.

TCU head coach Jamie Dixon has guided the Horned Frogs through the gauntlet of the Big 12 schedule, one of the toughest conferences in college basketball. That experience could become a major advantage in a physical tournament game where every possession matters.

Expect a matchup where execution in the final minutes will likely determine who advances.

2. (7) Kentucky Wildcats vs (10) Santa Clara Broncos - Midwest Region

Seeing Kentucky listed as only a 3.5-point favorite against Santa Clara immediately caught the attention of many bracket watchers.

The Wildcats remain one of college basketball’s biggest brands, but Santa Clara enters with the type of offense that can make this matchup uncomfortable.

Kentucky head coach Mark Pope has pushed the Wildcats to play with pace, and the team averages nearly 80 points per game while attacking quickly in transition.

Santa Clara counters with an experienced group capable of matching that scoring output. The Broncos average roughly 78 points per game while shooting better than 46 percent from the field.

If Santa Clara can control tempo and keep the game within a few possessions late, this matchup could become one of the most talked-about upset possibilities of the opening weekend.

1. (6) North Carolina Tar Heels vs (11) VCU Rams - South Region

North Carolina might have drawn one of the most uncomfortable matchups in the entire bracket.

The Tar Heels opened as just a 2.5-point favorite against VCU, a sign of how much respect oddsmakers have for the Rams’ defensive pressure.

Head coach Hubert Davis has guided North Carolina behind an offense that averages nearly 80 points per game and thrives when the Tar Heels control the pace. But, as we know - Caleb Wilson will not play in this game.

VCU, coached by Phil Martelli Jr., plays a drastically different style. The Rams rely on relentless defensive pressure and rank among the national leaders in forced turnovers.

That aggressive approach can quickly turn games chaotic, especially in the NCAA Tournament where nerves and momentum swings often decide outcomes.

If VCU is able to disrupt North Carolina’s offensive rhythm early, this matchup could quickly become one of the most dangerous upset spots in the entire bracket.

March Madness always finds its surprises

Every March, favorites stumble, underdogs rise and the bracket suddenly looks very different than anyone expected.

And based on these matchups, the 2026 NCAA Tournament could deliver chaos almost immediately.