TV Schedule: 7:30 PM CST FS1
Arena: Pinnacle Bank Arena Lincoln Ne
A lot has happened for the Nebraska Cornhuskers over the last 15 days. Nebraska has seen their previous 20-game home winning streak go away, and Nebraska is also currently mired in a six-game losing streak, finding themselves on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble because of it. Thursday night, the Huskers host the Illinois Fighting Illini, hoping to break the losing streak, pick up a ranked win, and start a new home winning streak.
The last time Nebraska won a game was an 8-point win over UCLA that moved their record to 12-2 and started to get all of the national pundits to talk about them and how dangerous they were because of their smothering defense and because of their ability to get to the rim and get fouled. All of that goodwill is gone over the last six games. The Huskers have seen their defense completely falter; they have been beaten by 25 or more twice, have given up a ton of threes on the defensive end, and have not given much of an effort at points.
The play, especially the play of the two stars Juwan Gary and Brice Williams has confounded head coach Fred Hoiberg. The intensity and urgency that Nebraska was playing with early in the year is gone, and they are searching for answers. The Huskers enter the game at 12-8 overall and 2-7 in the Big Ten. Right now, the Huskers would miss the Big Ten tournament.
Even with all of that, Nebraska is still in the bubble conversation, and with three ranked teams still left of their schedule, they have plenty of time to play their way into the NCAA tournament. Any hope that Nebraska has of getting back to winning and potentially playing in a postseason tournament is going to start in their game with Illinois. I am a huge believer in the law of averages, and Nebraska is overdue for a win and some good fortune.
The stars Juwan Gary (12.2 points and 4.7 rebounds) and Brice Williams (18.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists) have got to start playing better and leading the team. Williams has not played well over the six game stretch and at times looks disengaged. If the Huskers want to reach their goals these two guys have to get back to playing like they are capable and leading the offense and anchoring the defense. The defense has shown some signs of life over the last few games but has disappeared far too much. It has to be on point, and the Huskers must defend the three-point line to have any chance of winning.
Illinois is a team that plays at the fastest pace in the Big Ten and runs a heavy three point offense. The Illini are one of the worst shooting teams in the Big Ten but they have the ability to have a good night shooting if the right guys are taking them. The freshman leads the way for Illinois and will likely have the Freshman of the year in the league. They will also likely have a freshman be a lottery pick in the NBA draft if he chooses to leave.
Illinois was one of the best teams in the country last year, thanks in part to Terrance Shannon, who is now in the NBA. The loss of Shannon meant that coach Brad Underwood had to go scour the transfer portal for a point guard. He found one of the best facilitators in the game in Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell (12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists). Boswell was doing a great job by himself, but coach Underwood found a gem in freshman Kasparas Jakucionis (15.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists) to run the offense. Jakucionis and Boswell both start and are usually on the floor at the same time. Boswell is not much of a shooter and will look to pass the ball first, whereas Jakucionis is one of the best shooters in the country and leads Illinois in helpers and scoring.
The two point guards are the two players who can sway this game in favor of Illinois. They will be tasked with driving the lane, bringing the Husker's defense on a double team, and kicking out to open three-point shooters for wide-open looks. That has been the recipe to beat the Huskers. Illinois is going to allow Nebraska in the paint for easy two-point looks, but they run everyone off the three-point line and don’t force turnovers. That defensive philosophy has burned them in the past, especially when they are not hitting shots.
Will Nebraska commit to defense and rebounding? Will the Huskers give an effort for all 40 minutes? Can Illinois hit their threes? Will they force turnovers and provide some resistance on the defensive end at the rim? Illinois is only shooting 29% from deep in the league and Nebraska is allowing over 80 points per game in the league. Something has to give, and the Husker's losing streak is going to end eventually, and these are games that coach Hoiberg has won in the past. The Vault is going to be rocking, and a motivated Huskers team will come out strong.
Prediction: Nebraska 88, Illinois 83