It was only three seasons ago that the North Carolina Tar Heels got hot in February, were selected into the NCAA tournament as a 9 seed, and then made that run all the way to the National Title game. That was the first season of the Hubert Davis era and given how the year ended it looked like it was going to be a match and the Tar Heels were going to do big things in the post Roy Williams era.
Then reality hit, the next season the Tar Heels were preseason ranked number 1 and failed to make the NCAA tournament. Last season, which was also the last season for future Tar Heel Hall of Famer Armando Bacot, the Tar Heels earned a one seed and lost in the Sweet 16. Then there is this season. The ACC is having a bad year overall, and it is one that the Tar Heels should be able to run through and find themselves in the NCAA tournament field with relative ease. That has not happened, and as of now, North Carolina likely is destined for the new Crown tournament or, even worse, the NIT.
Coach Davis was able to avoid the Hot Seat all last year, and fans thought he had finally turned it around, given that North Carolina was a 1 seed and that they swept Duke last year. Coach Davis is firmly back on the hot seat, and after the 17-point loss to the Blue Devils on Saturday night, the seat is flaming hot. If the ACC were having a banner year, and given that North Carolina lost a lot of talent from last season, you may be able to excuse it if you were a fan and give it another year. The reality is the ACC is having a historically bad season and North Carolina is on pace to finish in the middle of the pack in a bad ACC.
This is the fourth season for Coach Davis, so this is his roster, and there are no more excuses. He didn’t recruit RJ Davis, but the rest of the roster is all his. Sure, there are Ian Jackson and Elliot Cadeau, who are fantastic players. There is also his inability to recruit big men or develop them. The biggest issue for the Tar Heel is their lack of big men, and it has been killing them on defense all year, and it won’t get any better. The Tar Heels have not looked right for most of the Hubert Davis tenure, and barring a late run in February to the National Championship, they would have one NCAA tournament appearance.
Let’s get to the elephant in the room: North Carolina just received a commitment from 5-star forward Caleb Wilson. Wilson is the number 6 recruit in the country and chose North Carolina over Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and UCF. This will be the second five-star commitment that Coach Davis has gotten in the last two seasons. We all know how good Ian Jackson has been, and nothing suggests Wilson won’t be just as good. Wilson is a 6’9” athletic forward who can score from anywhere. He does have the chance and is good enough to be coach Davis's version of Bacot. That is if he gets the chance to play for Coach Davis.
The heat is on full blast for the North Carolina headman right now. It is one thing to lose to Duke, but when you couple with getting blown out by Duke and the Tar Heels are not going to make the NCAA tournament for the second time in four years, things are getting bad for Davis. I personally do not think that the Tar Heels will fire Davis in the season, but they might at the end of the year, depending on how they finish. If they do what will that mean for the commitment of Wilson?
If Wilson were to stay and honor his commitment it would be a huge win for the incoming coach. If Wilson were to decommit and put his name back into the pool, it would be a huge win for the team that receives his commitment. The other option is for Wilson to go to Overtime Elite and prepare himself for the NBA. Either way, this is going to be something to watch for as the Tar Heels continue to falter. There could be a huge player available soon if coach Davis gets fired.