And so they meet again. The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-12), who stand firmly on the bubble, are set to take on the No. 1 ranked Duke Blue Devils (29-3) in the ACC Tournament Semifinals Friday night in Charlotte.
It’s a mammoth opportunity -- a last-ditch effort -- for the Tar Heels to impress the Selection Committee despite a displeasing 1-11 record in Q1 games. With the future No. 1 pick in this year’s draft Cooper Flagg presumed to be out after suffering an ankle sprain late in the first half in Duke’s quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech, the likelihood of upsetting the nation’s top team and securing their second Q1 win of the season just got more probable. But it won’t be easy against a team with Duke’s firepower one through five.
Take a look at a preview, including a final score prediction, of Friday night’s matchup below.
How to watch North Carolina vs. Duke
Date: Friday, March 14
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Spectrum Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Streaming: fubo TV
North Carolina record: 22-12 (13-7)
Duke record: 29-3 (19-1)
North Carolina vs. Duke odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
North Carolina +290
Duke -375
Spread
North Carolina +8.5 (-110)
Duke -8.5 (-110)
Total
154.5 (over -110/under -110)
Duke injury report
Maliq Brown, F: Questionable at time of publication (left shoulder)
Cooper Flagg, G/F: Questionable at time of publication (ankle)
Duke and North Carolina series history
Duke's all-time record vs. North Carolina: 146-119
North Carolina vs. Duke prediction
This game has intrigue written all over it. On one hand, injury-depleted Duke has already locked up the No. 1 seed. The only question now is whether the Blue Devils can earn the No. 1 overall seed, which would likely send Duke to Raleigh in the first and second rounds of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, North Carolina has plenty to play for with its NCAA Tournament hopes on the line. After beating Wake Forest 68-59 in a must-win matchup in the ACC Quarterfinals on Thursday, the Tar Heels still have work to do despite winning nine of their past 11 games.
The old saying goes: You can’t beat a team three times. And it’s especially difficult to beat a team three times when you’re undermanned -- and that’s the case with Duke, presumed to be without Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown.
Put simply, North Carolina has a lot to play for. And Duke doesn’t. Expect the Tar Heels to come out swinging behind RJ Davis, who put up 23 points in UNC’s win over Wake Forest. Additionally, a major bright spot for the Tar Heels has been the rise of Ven-Allen Lubin, who has notched two straight double-doubles in the ACC Tournament. While North Carolina’s defense has left much to be desired throughout the 2024-25 season, the Tar Heels have held its past two opponents to under 90 points per 100 possessions, according to BartTorvik.com.
While Duke’s talent outmatches North Carolina even with the injuries, the stars have aligned for the Tar Heels to pick up a massive Q1 win over the mighty Blue Devils. It’s March. Anything can happen, right? We're going with the upset here.
Prediction: North Carolina 81 Duke 78