It’s no surprise that nearly half of the teams in the Sweet Sixteen are from the SEC. However, not many people would have predicted that Ole Miss would be one of the final 16 teams in this year's tournament. The Rebels have made the tournament only nine times before and don’t have the NCAA Tournament pedigree that some of the other programs have. The school's best tournament finish was in 2001 when Ole Miss bowed out in the Sweet Sixteen.
But this year, the Rebels have a ton of momentum following wins over UNC and Iowa State in the first two rounds. Ole Miss showed off its defense against UNC and its offense against Iowa State, but will the Rebels be able to excel on both ends of the country to advance to the program's first Elite Eight appearance?
Unlike Ole Miss, Tom Izzo and Michigan State are very familiar with the NCAA Tournament. In his 30 years leading the Spartans, Izzo’s squads have only missed out on the tournament twice. Michigan State isn’t far removed from its most recent trip to the Sweet Sixteen. While the Spartans made a run to the round of 16 just two short years ago, this season, Izzo has his sights set on a much better finish for his program. To get here, Michigan State easily overpowered Bryant in the first round and held off a tough New Mexico team to reach the second weekend. It's been six years since Michigan State advanced past the Sweet Sixteen. Will this team be able to keep the Spartans title hopes alive?
How to watch Ole Miss vs Michigan State
- Date: Friday, March 28
- Time: 7:09 pm ET
- Venue: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Steaming: fubo TV
- Ole Miss record: 24-11
- Michigan State record: 29-6
Ole Miss vs Michigan State odds, spread, and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Money line:
- Ole Miss +146
- Michigan State -178
Spread:
- Ole Miss +3.5 (-105)
- Michigan State -3.5 (-115)
Total:
- 142.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Ole Miss injury report
- None
Michigan State injury report
- None
Ole Miss and Michigan State series history
- Ole Miss all-time record vs Michigan State: 0-1
Ole Miss vs Michigan State prediction
Ole Miss put up quite a few points against a solid Iowa State defense, but the Rebels have an even tougher test against Michigan State. The Spartans don’t make anything easy for opposing offenses. On the season, Michigan State has held opponents to 40.4 percent from the floor and a D1 low 27.8 percent from three. This is concerning for Ole Miss since the Rebels aren’t the most efficient offense to begin with. Ole Miss made 58 percent of its shots against Iowa State, but its season average is much lower at 44.6 percent.
Luckily for Ole Miss, Michigan State’s offense isn’t much more efficient. The Spartans are making 46 percent from the floor, but have struggled mightily from three, hitting 31 percent from deep. Ole Miss holds a huge advantage from behind the three-point line, making 34.8 percent. In the NCAA Tournament, Ole Miss has been lighting it up from three - making 19 shots from deep in two games, with leading scorer Sean Pedulla (15.2 ppg) accounting for five of them.
One major concern for Ole Miss is on the boards. The Rebels have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, coming in right at 33 rebounds per game. That won't cut it against a Michigan State team that absolutely controls the glass. The Spartans average 40 rebounds per game while holding teams to only 30.6. And to make things slightly worse, Michigan State is an incredible offensive-rebounding team - grabbing 12 per game, with Jaxon Kohler pulling in 2.5. The Spartans average more than 13 second-chance points per game, which greatly helps out their offense.
Ole Miss has a better chance of winning if the Rebels continue to pressure the ball and force turnovers. There aren’t many teams in the country that force more turnovers than Chris Beards’ squad. Ole Miss averages 8.8 steals per game and forces more than 14 turnovers. Where Michigan State dominates when it comes to second-chance points, Ole Miss dominates converting turnovers into points. This season, the Rebels scored 16 points per game off of turnovers. But against a Michigan State team that doesn’t turn the ball over a ton, it will take a special defensive effort to get the Spartans out of their offensive rhythm.
The Rebels have a lot of momentum coming into this matchup and will need every bit against the Spartans. Luckily for Ole Miss, it has a ton of experience this season playing against some of the top defenses in the country, but it will be extremely tough to pull out a win if the offense can’t get going. Michigan State is just too strong defensively to let this game get out of hand, and with how much better the Spartans are on the glass, Ole Miss might not stand much of a chance.
Prediction: Michigan State 71, Ole Miss 63