TV schedule: Thursday, January 30, 10:30 pm ET. FS1
Arena: Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles, California
There’s been some general disappointment for Oregon (16-4) in recent years, though Dana Altman’s squad is doing their best to make a great first impression in the Big Ten. All four of the Ducks’ losses this season have come in league games, with three of those actually at home. This team is adjusting to life in a new conference but is hoping to recapture some of their earlier magic, as this team beat Alabama and Texas A&M back in November.
This is the fourth season for Nathan Bittle (12.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg) with the Ducks and he’s having his most productive season, as the 7-footer is the top scorer and rebounder for this team. Sophomore guard Jackson Shelstad (12.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg) continues to be an efficient weapon after a great debut last season and has hit 38% of his 3-pointers. After work with Washington State and Villanova, TJ Bamba (10.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.6 apg) has assumed a vital role in his final collegiate season.
Despite a few tough losses in recent weeks, Oregon is still #16 in the AP Top 25, though they’ve tumbled to 29th in KenPom and 27th in the NET rankings. The Ducks have played a really tough schedule this season and are still adjusting to life in the Big Ten, though none of those losses are really that bad, with the worst being last weekend at Minnesota. Oregon will certainly want a little more consistency from a defense that has had its share of struggles.
Another team with a relatively hot start to the season, UCLA (15-6) got nice December wins over Oregon, Arizona, and Gonzaga but really struggled when Big Ten got rolling in January. Whether its inconsistency, new conference rivals, or all the travel, the Bruins lost four straight games. However, UCLA has now bounced back with four straight wins and are hoping to complete a season sweep over the Ducks to finish January.
No player has been more valuable for Mick Cronin than former Oregon State forward Tyler Bilodeau (13.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg), an impressive frontcourt weapon who’s also hit nearly 40% of his 3-pointers. Sophomore forward Eric Dailey (12.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) had great run at Oklahoma State as a freshman but has become an even better shooter and ball distributor with these Bruins. He even led the charge with 19 points when this team upset Oregon nearly two months ago. Fellow sophomore Sebastian Mack (10.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg) is the leading scorer among returners.
The losing streak to begin this month knocked UCLA out of the national polls, though the Bruins stand 32nd in KenPom and 33rd in the NET. This offense has really bounced back nicely during this winning streak after some rough performances earlier in the season. For the Bruins, it’s all about getting enough consistency on both sides of the ball, especially if they want to run this streak to five and finish January on a high note.
Both teams shot the ball really well from outside the arc in the first matchup in Eugene, while the Bruins made just enough plays late for that victory. These teams have been trending in opposite directions recently, but the Ducks have every capability of seeking revenge on the road. While shot making is clearly critical again, it’ll be important to see which defense is making more of the effort plays.
Dylan Andrews had the 3-pointer to win the game in the final seconds for UCLA and this game could certainly come down to the wire again. The Ducks need to shake off their recent struggles, especially after what happened in Minneapolis last weekend. UCLA has been in a much better position and we’re riding with them at home, though a great game out of Bittle could certainly change things in the end.
Prediction: UCLA 74, Oregon 70