Bracketology
The AAC is a difficult conference to peg in the larger college basketball landscape. It's not a power conference, of course, but it doesn't feel like it's on the level of the Mountain West this year, either. Instead, the league finds itself on footing more with the WCC, or even the Missouri Valley, conferences that will definitely get one team into the NCAA Tournament (as required), but has a shot at two.
The seeding will leave something to be desired, but Florida Atlantic should be in, regardless of what happens in Fort Worth. The Owls are 24-7, with two Quad 1 wins and an undefeated record against Quad 3 teams (though they did lose twice to Quad 4 teams). Our latest Bracketology from Sunday morning assigned FAU a No. 9 seed, which can probably move up or down one or two seed lines depending on this week's results.
Entering the season, the other expected NCAA Tournament team was Memphis. The Tigers justified that for awhile, but ultimately couldn't keep apace in the AAC. While dominant at home, the team has struggled on the road and against Quad 1 and 2 competition, where the Tigers are a combined 6-7. Penny Hardaway's team is considered "Next Four Out" in our latest Bracketology and likely needs to win the AAC Tournament, unless the bubble teams in front of them pop in a major way.
Then, there's South Florida. This team is one of the top stories of the year, won the conference regular season title and were ranked a week ago before losing against Tulsa in the finale. But the strength of schedule is pretty weak In fact, the Bulls have only one Quad 1 victory in just one Quad 1 game. They're a bubble team is they don't win the conference tournament. Even if they do, they might not be better than a 10-seed, at best.
So if FAU wins the AAC Tournament, there's a real chance the conference will only sen one representative to the NCAA Tournament.