AAC Basketball: 2024 conference tournament preview and predictions
Predictions
First Round
No. 12 Wichita State vs. No. 13 Rice
The Rice Owls first season in the AAC has been like most of its seasons in Conference USA: rough. Wichita State also hasn't had a great run of it during Paul Mills' first season, but the Shockers' baseline talent - including Kenny Pohto and Colby Rogers - is better. Max Fiedler is a great all-around player, but there's not enough around him. Wichita State beat Rice by 21 in their only meeting this season.
Prediction: Wichita State 75, Rice 65
No. 11 Temple vs. No. 14 UTSA
Texas San-Antonio has the best floor general in the conference in junior Christian Tucker, who led the league with 5.5 assists per game. There's not much more doing for the Roadrunners, though. Nothing may be better than the something going on with Temple, which is dealing with reports of alleged match-fixing after unusual betting activity surrounding their games. The Owls have already beaten UTSA in two close games this season, including the season finale, but maybe the local crowd and a need for Temple to just escape this season will prompt an upset.
Prediction: UTSA 80, Temple 76
Second Round
No. 8 East Carolina vs. No. 9 Tulsa
East Carolina is not a good offensive team, but they still have a decent level o talent, including RJ Felton and Bobby Pettiford Jr. Tulsa guard PJ Haggerty is dynamic, as seen in his 32-point output in Tulsa's upset over South Florida. The Pirates won the regular season meeting, 62-57, holding Haggerty to 16 points and zero three-pointers.
Prediction: East Carolina 75, Tulsa 68
No. 5 Memphis vs. No. 12 Wichita State
The Memphis Tigers will be one of the most motivated teams entering the AAC Tournament, something the Shockers will have to bear the brunt of early on. In their first meeting, Memphis crushed Wichita State by 26 points, scoring a season-high 112 points. They played a much closer 65-63 Tigers win in Memphis. Those games were bookends for a four-game losing streak that torpedoed Memphis' one promising season.
Prediction: Memphis 90, Wichita State 65
No. 7 North Texas vs. No. 10 Tulane
Tulane is the dark horse in this tournament and they'll have to prove their mettle immediately with North Texas, a team that goes down fighting every time. The Mean Green are fearsome on defense, allowing just 62.4 points per game. Jason Edwards is also one of the league's best scorers. North Texas won each of their two meetings this season, but the second was only a four-point affair that saw the Green Wave exploit UNT's defense in the second half.
Prediction: Tulane 81, North Texas 79
No. 6 SMU vs. No. 14 UTSA
This game has the potential to be fun because of the All-Teas element in Fort Worth. That may be the most enjoyable part of this game. UTSA actually beat SMU in their lone game, 77-73, behind 33 points from Jordan Ivy-Curry. That felt like an anomaly, as SMU was a heavy favorite. The Mustangs won't overlook the Roadrunners again.
Prediction: SMU 80, UTSA 63