Bracketology 2024: Bubble Watch Updates for each conference in early March

MWC

Locks: Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State

Numerous Mountain West teams have found themselves in the national rankings at times this season, and even more could find themselves in the Tournament field. San Diego State gets the attention after last season’s Tourney run, but Utah State leads the conference race entering the final weekend and has been a major surprise. Boise State’s Friday night win at San Diego State only further cements their lock status with a sixth Quad 1 win.

Should Be In: Colorado State, Nevada

Nonconference wins over Creighton and Colorado already put Colorado State in great shape, and even though they’re struggling down the stretch this still looks like a Tournament team. They’ve cost themselves a couple of slots on the seed line. Nevada might actually be a lock at this point, with a decent NET of 34 and 7 Quad 1 wins, including at Boise State earlier this week.

Bubble: New Mexico

New Mexico is the one major MWC program that has the most to worry about come Selection Sunday. While the Lobos have one of the best NETs (it’s at 25 right now), it’s their 2-6 mark in Quad 1 games and recent Quad 4 loss to Air Force that’s really hurt the resume. They can secure their place by winning at Utah State on Saturday or get some business done in the MWC Tournament.

Work to Do: UNLV

Realistically, there’s not a situation where the Mountain West gets seven teams in the field unless UNLV wins the conference tournament, but they’re still worth pointing out for fun. These Runnin’ Rebels struggled early in the season but have won ten of their last eleven games, including over New Mexico, Colorado State, and San Diego State. Their NET is still only 75, so it’s conference tournament or bust.