Bracketology 2024: Bubble Watch Updates of key teams in early March

Florida Atlantic (22-7) (NET: 35)
1-2 (Q1), 6-3 (Q2), 9-1 (Q3), 6-1 (Q4)

While the season hasn’t gone like many have expected in Boca Raton, the Owls bounced back nicely this week, completing a season sweep over Tulane less than a week after a tough loss at Memphis, putting them up to 22 wins.

Their double overtime win over Arizona remains one of the most exciting games and performances of the season, but that’s Florida Atlantic’s only Quad 1 victory. They did load up on Quad 2 wins by beating Butler, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech at the ESPN Events Invitational.

The dire losses help sink the resume, as the Owls were upset at home by Bryant in the opening weeks of the season. That’s a Quad 4 loss and doesn’t pair well with their Quad 3 loss at Florida Gulf Coast that came right before New Year’s.

The Owls need to make an impression. They can do that by winning at North Texas and avenging their loss to Memphis this week. They aren’t going to win the AAC regular season crown but can still avert their worries by ending the regular season with two Quad 2 wins.

Indiana State (25-5) (NET: 29)
1-3 (Q1), 4-1 (Q2), 9-0 (Q3), 11-1 (Q4)

The Sycamores ended the regular season on a high note with a four-game winning streak. That nice finish included double-digit wins against Evansville and Murray State this past week, though both were just Quad 3 chances.

It’s a lack of those chances that hurts Indiana State’s resume, with their only Quad 1 win being at Bradley more than three months ago. The Sycamores added a few Quad 2 victories during MVC play, notably winning over Drake and Bradley again.

A recent stretch actually ruined the Sycamores’ standing, as they suffered a Quad 4 loss at home to Illinois State just three weeks ago. They also added their only Quad 2 loss against Southern Illinois a few days later; it’s a week that Indiana State would love to do over.

Indiana State enters the MVC Tournament as the favorite, but if they falter are they still getting a bid? It’s very unlikely that they’ll have a Quad 1 opportunity in St. Louis, meaning the Sycamores would need desperately to avoid another bad loss. It might have to be Drake in the title game or Indiana State is in trouble.