New Mexico Lobos
At first glance, New Mexico looks like a team that shouldn’t be in much danger. They’re 19-5 overall and currently 7-4 in a conference that could get as much as six bids in the NCAA Tournament. That’s currently projected to be more than the Pac-12, ACC, and potentially the Big East.
However, the Lobos might be the team in most danger. Their resume overall includes wins over San Diego State, Utah State and Nevada at home, with nothing meaningful on the road. They’re now 4-4 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents and after last weekend, now have a Quad 3 setback.
At home, New Mexico fell to UNLV, who has clipped a couple of other top teams in the league. The final score was 80-77, despite 20 points each from Donovan Dent and Jaelen House. Due to how poor of a non-con campaign they had, the Rebels' numbers are back enough overall to be a true spoiler for bubble teams like the Lobos in the Mountain West.
The good news for the Lobos is that they have two Quad 1 opportunities to bounce back and get on the right side of the bubble. The bad news is that they’re both on the road, taking on San Diego State and Nevada. A spilt would be ideal, whereas getting swept would be devastating.