Missouri Valley Basketball: 2024 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Bracketology Implications

Indiana State rides into the conference tournament with a ‘national evaluation tool’ ranking of 29. In most current brackets you will find the Sycamores floating around a the eleven seed level. Improving their status in St. Louis won’t be easy. 

Barring blow outs of their first two opponents, there isn’t a status raising game to be played. If they reach the final, likely opponents Drake (48) or Bradley (60) provide some help in that regard. A Drake matchup could be a Quadrant One game for the Sycamores. Playing Bradley would land in the second quadrant. In either case that could help the Sycamores’ cause for a greater seed. 

Their hope for an at-large bid is 'bubble-ish'. If they lost in the final to Bradley or Drake it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but a loss in either the quarter, or semifinals would be disastrous. Any of the teams they would lose to prior to the championship game would be considered a Quad Three loss and thus, a bad loss. In the Selection Committee’s eyes all losses are not the same. 

‘Bid-stealers’ would be Indiana State’s worst enemy in this scenario. Some tenth place team from a power conference winning its league tournament could be a death blow to the Trees. 

Drake is two overtime games away from being in as good, if not better shape than Indiana State. Overtime losses to UAB (128) and Missouri State (156) crushed their postseason hopes. Obviously if the Bulldogs win the tournament, they are in the Big Dance, but even winning two games at Arch Madness won’t be good enough to be considered. 

A semifinal win over Bradley (60) would be a win in the second quadrant, but not enough muscle to move the needle. 

The Valley’s best bet for two teams to play in the NCAA Tournament is an Indiana State loss in the final and hope that sanity prevails in other conference tournaments.