James Madison Dukes
The Dukes had a good first year in the Sun Belt, winning 20+ games and finishing in the top-4 of the standings. They had a good roster on paper entering this year and it didn't take long to make national noise, upsetting top-5 Michigan State on opening night.
Yes, the Spartans aren't very good right now. They're under .500 overall and unranked but it's still a massive win for the program overall. They followed that up with a double-overtime win over Kent State, along with a non-con win over Old Dominion on the road and wins over Fresno State and Southern Illinois as well.
Terrence Edwards, who dropped 49 points in the two big overtime wins to start the season, is averaging around 18 ppg. Former BC forward TJ Bickerstaff is playing at an all-league level, while RMU transfer Michael Green has taken over the point guard position.
There's no question that James Madison is the team to beat in the Sun Belt. If they can go unbeaten in the non-conference and avoid fewer than three losses in league play, they have a shot at getting an at-large bid. But that's too tough a league for me to think they can go unscathed.