NCAA Basketball: Revisiting the Dream Seasons of 2020; Four Years Later

Cedric Diggory In The Graveyard Level Nightmares

For a pair of programs, they've not only failed to come close to their 2020 bliss, the last three seasons have been marked by awful late-season moments.

Dayton
2020 Season: 29-2; #1 seed
Dream Outcome: Final Four
Best Season Since: 2022; NIT

Amidst a twenty-game win streak to close out the season, the 2020 Dayton Flyers became the darlings of the college basketball world. Led by National Player of the Year Obi Toppin and All-A-10 First Teamer Jalen Crutcher, Dayton went 28-3-0 in regulation, suffering both losses in overtime on neutral courts. The Flyers went undefeated in A-10 play, hosted College Gameday on the last day of the regular season, and even made twenty-seven straight two-pointers in a late-season game called by ESPN's top announcing team, as they rampaged their way towards to the program's first-ever #1 seed.

It certainly was not going to be the same going forward for Dayton, with Toppin heading to the NBA and both starting forwards, Trey Landers and Ryan Mikesell, graduating, but no one would have predicted the next three years would go without an NCAA Tournament appearance. A rough rebuild in 2021 turned into a bubble season in 2022. That year, Dayton led Richmond by eight in the closing seconds of the first half in the A-10 semifinals when point guard Malachi Smith sprained his ankle. The Spiders came back to win and stole a bid the next day, bumping Dayton to the First Team Out of the NCAA Tournament. In 2023, the Flyers blew an eleven point second half lead to VCU with the A-10 auto bid on the line.

However, Dayton's return to March Madness does appear to be around the corner, anchored by another soon to be All-American center in DaRon Holmes II, who was driven to join the Flyers after watching Toppin on the 2020 team. At the time of this writing, they are projected by Lunardi as a #4 seed, which would match a program best from 2003. Perhaps Dayton will join the aforementioned 2020 dreamers who still had their glorious season, but they will have to overcame some weird history. The Flyers are 0-4 all-time as a single-digit seed, but 10-7 when placed on the #10, #11 or #12 line.

Hofstra
2020 Season: 26-8; #14 seed
Dream Outcome: NCAA Tournament
Best Season Since: 2023; NIT

Hofstra had already done the job. On the final normal night of 2020, the Pride defeated Northeastern to win the CAA Tournament and clinch an auto bid for their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001. It was an unexpected bounce back after Northestern upset a regular season champion Hofstra team in the 2019 CAA championship game, which was followed by the graduation of the program's second all-time leading scorer, Justin Wright-Foreman. But senior guard Desure Buie stepped into his role, made First Team All-CAA, and with the help of Wright-Foreman's sidekick Eli Pemberton, defended the Pride's regular season CAA title on the way to a dominant three days in Washington DC.

Despite losing Buie and Pemberton to graduation and Coach Joe Mihalich missing the year with a medical issue, Hofstra found themselves with a golden opportunity in 2021. The Pride were the #4 seed in the CAA Tournament but got a huge gift when 4-7 Elon upset the top seed James Madison. That came crashing down with an eighteen point loss to the Phoenix. In 2022, Hofstra was upset again, this time by College of Charleston in the quarterfinals. In 2023, the Pride beat an AP #18 College in Charleston on the road and never looked back, winning eleven straight to end the year as CAA co-regular season champions and the #1 seed. This time, the dream was dashed in overtime of the semifinals at the hand of UNC Wilmington.

The CAA may be the nation's most wide open conference in 2024. Six teams sit at either 9-3 or 8-4, and following a 7-1 strecth, Hofstra is amongst the latter group. The Pride are riding three veterans who are all among the top one-hundred nationally in minutes, the backcourt of Tyler Thomas and Jaquan Carlos, paired with junior forward Darlinstone Dunbar. With their top six players all being upperclassman, Hofstra is primed for a March run, but they will need to prove it over their final six regular season games, five of which are against the other teams who also sit within one game of the lead.

Honorable Mention: Bowling Green/Ball State; A bizarre season in the MAC saw traditional mid-standings staples Bowling Green and Ball State finish as the #2 and #3 seeds respectively. The Falcons (1968) and the Cardinals (2000) were both chasing an end to long NCAA Tournament droughts in the MAC Tournament, where the only #1 seeds to win between 2015-2023 were the Buffalo teams coached by Nate Oats. Neither team has even made the MAC Tournament semifinals in the three years since.