On Saturday, Feb. 15th, the college basketball world will get its first glimpse of March Madness as the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball committee will release its in-season top 16 teams at 12:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
It's always difficult to foresee exactly how the committee will seed each of the 16 teams. For most teams, where they are seeded is up for debate due to varied metrics – both resume-based and predictive.
However, with Selection Sunday about a month away, there is plenty of sample size to know exactly where each team stands and how they fare moving forward. With that being said, take a look at our precision for Saturday’s top 16 seed reveal on CBS.
16. Ole Miss Rebels
The Ole Miss Rebels have ever-so-quietly put together a nice-looking resume. The Rebels sport a 12.3 resume average, they are 11th in the country in WAB and are owners of among the best wins from any team this season: at Alabama. The SEC is a gauntlet and the Rebels are proving their worth, meaning the Rebels squeak their way into the top-16 seed come Saturday.
15. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Texas Tech Red Raiders started the season out slowly but have lost just twice since the start of the New Year. While it would make sense for the Red Raiders to be seeded a tad higher than 15th overall, two Q2 losses and a weak NCSOS keep the Red Raiders from reaching its highest seed potential (for now) despite its elite predictive metrics.
14. Arizona Wildcats
After starting the season a woeful 4-5, the Arizona Wildcats are now 13-2 over their past 15 games, continuing to climb up the seed list. Even amidst its slow start, the predictive metrics still thought highly of the Wildcats – and now its resume-based metrics are slowly but surely catching up to speed thanks to seven Q1 wins and a strong NCSOS.
13. Wisconsin Badgers
It was a close call leaving the Badgers outside the three-seed range. After all, Wisconsin has among the cleanest resumes in NCAA basketball. However, Wisconsin is just 1-3 in Q1A games compared to Kansas, which has three Q1A wins. Still, there is lots to like with Wisconsin’s resume. Six Q1 wins and zero losses outside Q1 puts the Badgers in a very comfortable spot at Saturday’s top 16 reveal.
12. Kansas Jayhawks
It has not been the season many had hoped for in Lawrence but the Kansas Jayhawks still boast a strong overall resume, keeping them right near the three/four-seed cutline come the top-16 reveal. While its SOR is only 18th, wins over Michigan State, Duke and Iowa State and strong predictions will hold strong come Selection Sunday.
11. Michigan Wolverines
The first “surprise” of the seed list goes to the Michigan Wolverines! Michigan was floating on the five-seed line for quite some time but a monster home win over Purdue is precisely what the Wolverines needed to get over the hump and into protected seed territory. Michigan’s past six wins have come by four points or less, meaning its predictive averages are somewhat concerning, yet a top 10 resume average keeps the Wolverines on the right track as a three-seed before the top 16 seed reveal on Saturday.
10. Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky may have seven losses but the Wildcats have among the most impressive string of victories to pad its impressive resume: Tennessee (X2), Texas A&M, Duke, Florida...to name a few. The Wildcats have eight Q1 wins. Seven of its eight wins are Q1A. The only other team in college basketball with as many Q1A wins as Kentucky is the Auburn Tigers (of course).
9. Iowa State Cyclones
The Iowa State Cyclones get the first three seeds here, knotting back-to-back wins after embarking on a troublesome three-game losing streak. Iowa State – despite a 7-4 record in Q1 games – has a higher resume average (12.3) compared to most of its counterparts on the three-seed line. A 19-point Q2 loss to Kansas State (despite how good the Wildcats are playing) and a middling NCOS may be the culprit and what keeps the Cyclones off the top two seeds for now.
8. Purdue Boilermakers
After embarking upon a grueling non-conference schedule, the Purdue Boilermakers are rewarded with a stellar 14-6 record in Q1/Q2 games, including seven Q1 wins. Purdue has steadily climbed up the NET Rankings and now finds itself firmly inside the top 10. Even with its recent loss to Michigan, Purdue’s impressive resume speaks for itself, which is why the Boilermakers grab the last two seeds here.
7. Texas A&M Aggies
You’d be hard-pressed to find a more polarizing, physically daunting group in college basketball than the Texas A&M Aggies. Its unique style of play isn’t for everyone but it has paid dividends with regards to its resume. With seven Q1 wins and an impressive 5.7 wins above the bubble, their resume continues to impress – and the Aggies continue to find ways to win.
6. Houston Cougars
It may have taken a bit longer for Houston to find their groove after adjusting to life without Jamal Shead but it's clear those struggles are long gone, tucked far away from its rearview mirror. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have run through the Big 12 with its lone loss coming to Texas Tech by one in OT. Houston’s three early-season losses keep the Cougars from reaching the one-seed line but if history is any indicator to future success, the Cougars may not be as far off from the one-seed line as one may perceive them to be.
5. Tennessee Volunteers
It was an awfully difficult decision to leave the Volunteers off the one-seed line. Eight Q1 wins and a stifling defense hold strong – and keep the Vols right near the cutline for one seed – but after its recent 75-64 loss to Kentucky, the Vols drop down to the top overall two seed for now. But Tennessee is knocking on the door.
4. Florida Gators
The Florida Gators snag the final one seed after owning arguably the best win for any team in college basketball this season: at Auburn. And they did so in a convincing fashion. Florida's schedule in the grueling SEC lightens up over the next four games, which comes timely because the injury bug has begun to plague the Gators – but they still show no signs of slowing down anytime soon.
3. Duke Blue Devils
While Duke doesn’t have as many high-end wins compared to Auburn or Alabama, ignoring the Blue Devils on the one-seed line is ill-advised. Its predictive metrics are elite and given the nature of the struggling ACC, its resume-based metrics are surprisingly solid thanks to non-conference wins over Arizona and Auburn.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
If any team in NCAA Basketball can dethrone the Auburn Tigers, look no further than the Alabama Crimson Tide, who are riding a seven-game win streak in the grueling SEC. 18 of Alabama’s 24 games have come from Q1 or Q2 games with zero of its three losses outside the first quadrant.
But take a look at Alabama’s schedule to close the regular season:
This is quite possibly the most difficult seven-game conference play stretch in college basketball history.
— Made For March (@madeformarch) February 13, 2025
Roll Tide. pic.twitter.com/O5P8VkwUHv
If the Crimson stand put on the one seed line, they will have earned it.
1. Auburn Tigers
With a dazzling 13-2 record in Quadrant 1 games with seven Q1A wins, Bruce Pearl’s mighty Auburn Tigers will unquestionably hold the No. 1 overall seed on Saturday’s top-16 reveal.
No team in college basketball has a better combination of resume-based metrics – KPI, SOR, WAB – and predictive metrics. The Tigers are the team to dethrone come March.