It is hard to believe that the NCAA tournament is almost here. In three weeks, there will be a bracket and we will all be gearing up for the first four games. First, we must fill the bracket, which is done using the at-large field based on who you beat and lost to. That will make up half the field. The other half is determined during Championship Week. Every conference tournament winner will automatically qualify for the NCAA tournament unless those teams are currently in their transition period to Division 1.
The ineligible teams for the NCAA tournament are Le Moyne, Lindenwood, Mercyhurst, Queens, St. Thomas, Southern Indiana, Stonehill, East Texas A&M, and West Georgia. Those teams are all eligible for their conference tournaments but can not make the NCAA tournament. If those teams make a conference final, their opponent will receive the automatic bid into the tournament, or the conference could select the regular season conference winner.
There are 15 conference tournaments to kick off week 1 of championship week. All of them are low-major tournaments and will likely be the teams that make up the lower seeds of the bracket. They are all mostly one-bid leagues, so bubble teams can rest easy for one more week without any stolen bids. The bigger question is, who will be rewarded with an automatic bid into the NCAA tournament?
Let’s break down the likely winner of each conference tournament and one sleeper. The sleeper is a team that is outside the top 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
America East
- Dates: March 8th-15th
- Venue: Higher seed campus sites
- Top Seed: Bryant Bulldogs
Winner: Vermont Catamounts
In January, after Vermont took consecutive losses to UMBC at home and then on the road at Binghamton, it looked like they would finally lose in the America East. They are not nearly as dominant as they have been in the past, but head coach John Becker knows how to win even with the limitations of this roster. Vermont has one of the worst offenses they have had under coach Becker, but they are good enough to win games and can keep it low-scoring with their smothering defense. Even without the normal dominance in the America East, Vermont still gets the nod because of their storied history in the league.
Sleeper: Albany Great Danes
The Great Danes are the fifth seed in the conference tournament and initially looked like they would be a lot better than that in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Head coach Dwayne Killings has one of the oldest rosters in the country and has filled it with transfers. The transfers are all guys who had played a lot of basketball at their previous stops, and most of them were starters. Albany has already beaten Bryant, and they play close games. Age and experience always seem to come into play in conference tournaments.
Atlantic Sun
- Dates: March 2nd- 9th
- Venue: Higher seed campus sites
- Top Seed: Lipscomb Bisons
Winner: North Alabama Lions
The Atlantic Sun has been competitive all year, so I give the Lions about a 60% chance to win this league. Head coach Tony Pujol plays a unique brand of basketball. North Alabama plays very fast, but they always have five ball-handlers on the floor and, as a result, turn the ball over fewer than any team in the country. They commit less than nine turnovers per game. Couple that with their elite rebounding on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor, an efficient offense that gets to the free throw line, and a defense that takes away the three-point line and doesn’t foul. You have a team that is hard to beat.
Sleeper: North Florida Osprey
The Osprey are the best offensive team in the conference. They have taken more shots and more three-point attempts than anyone in the country. The offense is elite, and they are going to score points on every defense they play. North Florida beat two power conference schools in South Carolina and Georgia Tech. They also got pounded by Nebraska and Florida. Why? They play zero defense. As good as the offense is for the Osprey the defense is worse. The elite offense and their ability to outscore teams is the reason they are the sleeper.
Big South
- Dates: March 5th-9th
- Venue: Freedom Hall Civic Center
- Top Seed: High Point Panthers
Winner: Longwood Lancers
Longwood made the NCAA tournament last year, and if they do win the league tournament again this year, the Lancers will have made the NCAA tournament three out of the last four years. I like Longwood. Coach Griff Aldrich has won a lot in the last three years; he knows what it takes to win in March. He has constructed a roster that is built to win in March as well. The Lancers play slow but still run efficient offense and are one of the best shooting teams in the conference. They also get to the line almost 30 times a game. Those things change games and usually for the team doing the free throw shooting.
Sleeper: Presbyterian Blue Hose
Another team that I was high on at the start of conference play. The Blue Hose have an excellent backcourt that creates matchup problems for almost everyone they play. Their defense is one of the best defenses in the league. How did they get the 7 seed then? The Big South is competitive, and the Blue Hose have had some nights where the shots have not fallen. If Presbyterian can get some threes to fall and their guards are having good games with their defense, they can absolutely win this tournament.
Big Sky
- Dates: March 8th-12th
- Venue: Idaho Central Arena
- Top Seed: Montana Grizzlies
Winner: Northern Colorado Bears
It is hard to get a good read on what is going to happen in the Big Sky. Northern Colorado, along with Montana, dominated the league and are a lot better teams than the rest of the league, but this tournament always has chaos. The Bears are a juggernaut on offense. They lead the league in most offensive categories, and most of that is due to their extreme efficiency on offense. Northern Colorado shoots 60% from 2 and 40% from three in just the league games. They lead the league in assists and defensive rebounding as well. The 80 points per game they average is tops in the league. If Northern Colorado can keep scoring, they will make the NCAA tournament.
Sleeper: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
I have mentioned Northern Arizona before because there are many who do think they can make a run in the tournament. It happened two seasons ago, and this team is built a lot like the team that made a run two seasons ago. The Lumberjacks have the top scorer in the league. That player also leads the conference in three-point shooting. Northern Arizona also has a big man who leads the league in rebounding and is averaging a double-double. If these two players start to get on a heater, they can carry the Lumberjacks back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 1999-2000 season.
Coastal Athletic
- Dates: March 7th-11
- Arena: CareFirst Arena
- Top Seed: Towson Tigers
Winner: Towson Tigers
The Tigers ran through the CAA and were the surprise winner, but it shouldn’t be a surprise when you realize that Towson has an experienced roster with 80% of the team back from last season, and the defense is elite. The Tigers are another team with ball handlers all over the floor and rarely turn the ball over; they rebound well and don’t foul. The defense is one of the best defenses in the country. They take away the three, contest everything at the rim, and force teams to play in the half-court. Towson does a lot of things that enable winning, and they don’t beat themselves.
Sleeper: Elon Phoenix
Elon enters the tournament in a very interesting position. They have never made the NCAA tournament and they have never had a team quite like this one in their CAA tenure. Head coach Billy Taylor has four guys who all average over 14 points per game, and they all do it in different ways. Two of them are shooters and two of them are guys who do most of their work inside the arc. All of them get fouled and are elite free-throw shooters; they can all rebound and pass the ball. Elon is in a position they have never been in before; can they get the job done?
Horizon League
- Dates: March 4th-11th
- Venue: Higher seed campus sites and Corteva Coliseum
- Top Seed: Robert Morris Colonials
Winner: Cleveland State Vikings
It is now the fourth season in a row that has seen the Vikings finish at or near the top of the Horizon League standings, and four years in a row that they were one of the favorites to win the conference tournament. The Vikings head into the tournament this year as one of the best defensive teams in the entire country and the best defensive team in the Horizon League. Scoring on Cleveland State has become a chore. They force turnovers and force you to play in the half-court. The Vikings do foul a lot, but they make up for it by rarely allowing a clean look at the basket. The Vikings have been the best team in the Horizon since January.
Sleeper: Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Looking at it on paper, most would think that there is no chance that any team outside of the top 4 teams will win this league. That would be an acceptable assumption, but given that the Horizon League tournament never goes as people expect it, and it has been full of upsets, anyone can win it. The Golden Grizzlies were the Cinderella of the NCAA tournament last year when they made the Sweet 16, and they did so with ridiculous three-point shooting. Oakland still takes a ton of threes, but this year, they are shooting under 30% from deep. They likely won’t fix that in a week, but if they can make some shots, they can stick around for a while.
Missouri Valley
- Dates: March 6th-9th
- Venue: Enterprise Center
- Top Seed: Drake Bulldogs
Winner: Drake Bulldogs
This is the only tournament that could result in a stolen bid if Drake doesn’t win the league. They are currently 26-3 and have run away from the rest of the Valley. The Bulldogs are in year one of head coach Ben McCollum, who is doing all of this with former Division 2 players from his last stop at Northwest Missouri State. Drake allows the fewest shots against them in the country, teams struggle to get up more than 50 shots in a game, they don’t allow threes, they don’t allow rebounds, and they force a ton of turnovers. The offensive end is also a masterclass. Drake plays at one of the slowest paces in the country because they work for the highest percentage shot they can get, and they are ultra-efficient on the offensive end. Drake is going to be a problem for a high-major team in the tournament.
Sleeper: Murray State Racers
There is about a 10% chance that anyone other than Drake wins this league, but if I had to pick a sleeper from someone outside the top 4 seeds, it would be Murray State. The Racers have one of the oldest rosters in the country and a ton of experience. The problem is that they are not as talented as a lot of the other teams in the league; they don’t shoot the ball overly well, and they turn the ball over too much. However, they have already beaten Drake this year, and if they can get out of their year-long offensive funk, it could become a problem.
Northeast
- Dates: March 5th-11th
- Venue: Higher seed campus sites
- Top Seed: Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Winner: Central Connecticut Blue Devils
The Northeast conference winner is going to be one of the lowest-seeded teams in the tournament, but don’t let that fool you. The Northeast Conference has won plenty of games in the NCAA tournament, including over Purdue two seasons ago. Central Connecticut is the most talented team, has the best players and best coach, and has not struggled much in the league. I don’t usually pick teams on a large winning streak to win their conference tournaments, but the Blue Devils are that much better than everyone else in the league. Central Connecticut has won 11 road games and grind games out in the paint. They will likely go to their first tournament since 2006-2007.
Sleeper: Wagner Seahawks
The Seahawks were the representative from the Northeast Conference last season, and they might just as well win it again this year. Don’t count out the Seahawks, and it is solely because of how they play. Wagner plays so slowly that they are hard to play. Wagner never speeds up, and they are so disciplined that they don’t let their opponents speed up either. They force teams to take tough shots, and offense is always ugly when Wagner is playing. That is how they won the league last year, and don’t be surprised if they do it again.
Ohio Valley
- Dates: March 5th-8th
- Venue: Ford Center
- Top Seed: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Winner: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
The Ohio Valley tournament will be the first tournament to finish and will give us our very first automatic bid. Taking the suspense out of it is likely going to be the Redhawks. They won the league by a full two games and blew out most of the teams in the league. There are some things that Southeast Missouri does that make it my overwhelming favorite. They are efficient inside the three-point arc, don’t turn it over, and are fantastic from the free-throw line. Those are things that lead to winning and help close out games.
Sleeper: Morehead State Eagles
The Eagles ended the year on a huge losing streak, but don’t forget about them. There is not a coach in the Ohio Valley who would be surprised if Morehead State made a run and grabbed the automatic bid in the league. They have struggled on the offensive end of the floor over the last month, but there was a point when they were standing at 9-2 in the league and looked like they were going to run away and hide from the rest of the field. They don’t appear to have the juice this year, but the Eagles are always a threat.
Patriot League
- Dates: March 4th-12th
- Venue: Higher seed campus sites
- Top Seed: American Eagles
Winner: Army Black Knights
I don’t think anyone knows what is going to happen in the Patriot League tournament because the top 4 teams are all very close to each other. In years past, it was easy to predict that Colgate would win the league, but they have struggled this year, so let's give the nod to the Army Black Knights with them making their first appearance in the NCAA tournament. The Black Knights have two of the best guards in the country who are going to score most of the points and take most of the shots. If you stop one, the other will lead the Black Knights to victory. Army does present some matchup problems for the rest of the league and Army has already beaten the top two teams in the league.
Sleeper: Lafayette Leopards
There is no real reason to pick the Leopards as the sleeper, but occasionally, a team gets hot and makes the finals of a conference tournament. Lafayette is the team I think will make the run to the Patriot League final if someone outside of the top 4 does. Lafayette builds their team around defense and will make threes; they don’t foul, and they protect the rim. It isn’t hard to see why they are a team built to make a run. The talent is lacking, but it only takes playing well for one week.
Southern Conference
- Dates: March 7th-10th
- Venue: Harrah’s Cherokee Center
- Top Seed: Chattanooga Mocs
Winner: Samford Bulldogs
The transfer portal hurt Samford in the offseason, but it didn’t hurt how head coach Bucky McMillan likes to play. Samford still has one of the premier offenses in the sport. They play extremely fast, get out and run, take and make a ton of threes, and can run anyone they play out of a gym. Not many teams are equipped to run with Samford, and even though they didn’t win the regular season, the Bulldogs are most equipped to win a tournament format because of how they play and how much conditioning they must do to play that style.
Sleeper: Furman Paladins
The Southern Conference does have some chaos occasionally, and this year may be one of those years. There are 5 teams who have a legitimate argument as the favorite to win this tournament and Furman is one of them. Head coach Bob Richey has turned the Paladins into a power in the league, and they are always going to be a team that everyone trusts to get the job done. They run fantastic offense and are one of the few teams in the league who can neutralize the running style of Samford. The Paladins swept the Bulldogs and are in prime position to make a run in this event.
Southland
- Dates: March 9th-13th
- Venue: Legacy Center
- Top Seed: McNeese State Cowboys
Winner: McNeese State Cowboys
The Cowboys ran through the Southland again this season, which isn’t a surprise given they have the most talented roster and one of the game's best coaches. McNeese shouldn’t have any trouble going through the tournament unscathed. The transfer portal has been good to McNeese under head coach Will Wade, he is able to acquire great talent from mid-major schools. Most of the players he has on his team are all guys who would have transferred to a power school but came to McNeese to play for Coach Wade. The Cowboys use their defense, mainly their ability to force turnovers, get out in transition, and get easy baskets at the rim. They won’t be challenged in the conference tournament.
Sleeper: Incarnate Word Cardinals
There isn’t a team in the Southland who is going to have an actual shot to beat McNeese. This conference is about as big of a slam dunk as there is. Incarnate Word is the team I have chosen for the purpose of this exercise to be the sleeper. The Cardinals have five shooters and ball handlers on the floor at the same time. Incarnate Word makes a lot of threes, and they also force a lot of turnovers on the defensive end of the ball. They will be able to stay in a lot of games if the shots are falling.
Summit League
- Dates: March 5th-9th
- Venue: Sanford Premier Center
- Top Seed: Omaha Mavericks
Winner: Omaha Mavericks
Omaha winning this tournament would be a big deal for that city. Omaha has always had to compete with Creighton and even Nebraska down the road in Lincoln for fans. The fact that the state of Nebraska could have all three of its Division 1 teams in the same tournament in basketball is newsworthy. The Mavericks are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and that contributes to an overall efficient offense. Omaha is shooting over 40% from deep in the league, they get to the line and make free throws, and they don’t turn the ball over. It doesn’t hurt that Marquel Sutton is the Summit League Player of the Year, either. The Mavericks will be going to their first-ever NCAA Tournament.
Sleeper: South Dakota Coyotes
The Coyotes have one of the premier offenses in the country. They do that by playing at one of the fastest paces, getting into the paint for easy baskets, and they make more free throws than any team in the country. They also get fouled the second most of any team in the country. South Dakota will always be in games because of their prowess on offense. As good as the South Dakota offense is, their defense might be worse. They score the 4th most points of any team in the country, and there are 4 teams worse than them on the defensive end. If they can outscore teams, they have a chance.
Sun Belt
- Dates: March 4th-10th
- Venue: Pensacola Bay Center
- Top Seed: South Alabama Jaguars
Winner: South Alabama Jaguars
The Sun Belt rarely goes as planned, especially when the league is as competitive as it was this year at the top. The Jaguars get the nod as the winner because they have beaten the teams in front of them already. South Alabama finished in the top three of the league, so it isn’t going out on a limb saying they can win, but outside of a weird stretch in the middle of January, they have dominated in the league and will likely do that down in Pensacola for the tournament. It will be the first trip to the tournament for South Alabama since 2007-2008. This year, head coach Richie Riley finally gets the job done after a second-place finish two full seasons ago.
Sleeper: Texas State Bobcats
The Sun Belt conference tournament is always nuts, and I don’t think there is any scenario that I can reasonably come to in my head where anyone outside of the top 5 will win this league. The league is very top-heavy, and the rest of the teams fill in after that. Texas State is the most unique team out of those remaining because of the way they play. The Bobcats don’t take very many shots from outside and will get the ball inside the paint on almost every possession. The threes they do take are selective, and they make a lot of them. The Bobcats are a hard team to prepare for because most teams don’t play the way they do, and they can make threes if they must go that route. The Bobcats don’t have the talent to be a legitimate threat, though.
West Coast
- Dates: March 6th-11th
- Venue: Orleans Arena
- Top Seed: Saint Mary’s Gaels
Winner: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Trendy pick for the Bulldogs to be the team to win the West Coast Conference. This year is not the same as in previous years; the Bulldogs have struggled at points throughout the season and have now made it two consecutive years that they have finished behind Saint Mary’s in the conference standings. It’s March; it is time for the Bulldogs to lock in and go on a deep March run like they always do at Gonzaga. They have made the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, 9 NCAA tournaments in a row, and have won the WCC seven times in that span. This year will make it eight. Do you want to bet against Gonzaga? Especially when they have already gotten beaten by Saint Mary’s?
Sleeper: Oregon State Beavers
This tournament is another one that bubble teams will be watching intently. If anyone outside of Saint Mary’s or Gonzaga wins this tournament there will be a stolen bid in the NCAA tournament. Oregon State is a team that is very capable of winning this tournament. They have two of the best players in the West Coast conference in Michael Rataj and Parsa Fallah. They can shoot the ball from deep, get the ball inside, run the floor, and have a ton of depth. Oregon State has already beaten Gonzaga and has taken a lot of other teams to the wire. They are good enough to win this league. Watch out for the Beavers.
Here are the teams I believe will win the first 15 conference tournaments and will find themselves in the NCAA tournament. Championship Week Part 2 begins next week, where we will find out who the rest of the automatic tournament qualifiers are. That is when bubble teams really start to sweat.