Don't look now, but the Boilermakers are rolling. Matt Painter's squad rolls into Eugene, Oregon on Saturday night fresh off of a six-game winning streak following an 11-point win over Washington.
However, this is the first team in the top 44 on KenPom that Purdue Basketball has seen since their loss to Auburn. Comparatively, Oregon ranks 25th on KenPom. A win here would be a major one in a tight Big Ten title race.
Key 1: Rebound the basketball
A glaring weakness that has gotten better over recent weeks, rebounding (or lack thereof) has killed Purdue in their earlier losses. In their four losses, Purdue was outrebounded by 16 total rebounds, and gave up 40 offensive rebounds.
However, the insertion of Caleb Furst into the starting lineup has helped significantly. Purdue has outrebounded or tied their opponent in rebounding four of the five games with Furst in the starting lineup. The fifth? A 68-50 win over Rutgers.
Key 2: Get Braden Smith rolling
Another major factor in this recent dominant stretch for Purdue has been the phenomenal play of Braden Smith. Smith has looked the part as the best point guard in the country recently, averaging 19.5 points, 10.3 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.7 steals over this six-game win streak.
Getting Smith rolling will be a huge factor in Purdue's ability to win over Oregon. The Ducks feature another dynamic guard in Jackson Shelstad. If Shelstad keeps up his hot shooting, he could cause problems for Purdue, but Braden Smith certainly has the ability to outplay him.
Key 3: Shoot the three well
While Oregon is among the top 25 in offense on KenPom, they're a very average 40 on defense. A big way Purdue could exploit that is through their three-point shooting.
Purdue features several shooters shooting at 40 percent or above, and getting Smith, Fletcher Loyer and CJ Cox going from deep, the Boilers could runaway with it.
Going into the game, Oregon is currently favored by 2.5 points. However, I think Braden Smith will be the key in this game, and Oregon won't have an answer. My pick: Purdue +2.5.