It was a historical campaign for SEC Basketball, getting a record 14 teams into the NCAA Tournament, surpassing 11 by the Big East in 2011. There are two No. 1 seeds and several others in the protected seed range.
Unfortunately for the conference, they lost one team in the First Four, as Texas fell to Xavier in the battle of the bubble squads. Still, that leaves 13 teams left. The hope is to get multiple teams to the Final Four, but they all have to get to the second weekend.
Due to the bracket placements, three matchups are guaranteed between SEC teams if everyone wins, meaning that, at best, only 10 programs from the conference can make it to the Sweet 16. Who is most likely among the 13? Here’s a league power ranking of odds.
13. Georgia Bulldogs - No. 9 seed in Midwest Region
There may have been no bigger loser from Selection Sunday than Georgia, who’s the only team in the field that’ll have to beat two top-10 teams in kenpom, just to get to the Sweet 16. Houston alone is a juggernaut, but Gonzaga’s metrics far exceed its average resume, looking more like a 4/5 seed than an 8.
12. Oklahoma Sooners - No. 9 seed in West Region
Almost as bad as playing a top-10 caliber team in the Round of 64 is playing the two-time reigning national champion, UConn Huskies. That alone is a tough draw for Oklahoma, even if UConn isn’t as good as the past two title winners. And even if the Sooners get past them, 1-seed Florida is right after.
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs - No. 8 seed in East Region
The Bulldogs also have to deal with a past national champion, as Scott Drew and Baylor are their first opponents. But the real problem is who would be next, as Duke and likely Cooper Flagg would be next. That’s a very tough task for Mississippi State to get through this weekend.
10. Arkansas Razorbacks - No. 10 seed in West Region
Coach John Calipari has maybe the toughest draw based on coaches, taking on No. 7 seed Kansas and Bill Self up first before likely having to deal with No. 2 seed St. John’s, led by Coach Rick Pitino. Add the constant injury concerns, and it’s a clear uphill climb for them to make a run.
9. Vanderbilt Commodores - No. 10 seed in Midwest Region
Vandy was one of the bigger surprises in College Basketball to make the Big Dance. They have a unique first-round matchup with the Saint Mary’s Gaels, whose style is something SEC teams haven’t faced. And even if they get past them, 2-seed Alabama likely awaits.
8. Ole Miss Rebels - No. 6 seed in South Region
As a 6-seed, the Rebels have a good path to the Sweet 16 without playing a top seed. But that may have changed after seeing how dominant UNC looked in the First Four win over San Diego State. If Ole Miss gets past them, they likely face 3-seed Iowa State, whose defense is the perfect matchup for the potent Rebels.
7. Missouri Tigers - No. 6 seed in West Region
Although the Tigers don’t have to take on a top seed early on, their path is still fairly hard. Drake is one of the top mid-majors in the country, while 3-seed Texas Tech is viewed as a darkhorse Final Four contender. Can Missouri get two straight wins this week to stay alive?
6. Kentucky Wildcats - No. 3 seed in Midwest Region
Kentucky should be able to take out Troy, though Sun Belt programs have been feisty in the Big Dance. The real concern will be a potential matchup with Illinois, an inconsistent yet dangerous team that can beat top teams such as the Wildcats.
5. Texas A&M Aggies - No. 4 seed in South Region
The Aggies found themselves in an underrated pod, including two of the most talented mid-major teams, Yale and UC San Diego. Plus, 5-seed Michigan will be a tough second-round matchup in a battle of opposing strengths. Texas A&M will be favored, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they fall in either game this weekend.
4. Florida Gators - No. 1 seed in West Region
We’re entering the point where we’re down to the top seeds who are heavily favored to make the Sweet 16. Florida shouldn’t have any issue versus Norfolk State to open the tournament, but they’ll then take on either Oklahoma or two-time defending champs UConn. If they aren't careful, that could be a tricky second-round game for the Gators.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide - No. 2 seed in East Region
The Tide has to deal with Robert Morris of the Horizon League in the first round, which could be a tricky 2 vs 15 game. Afterward, they either get Vandy or Saint Mary’s, which would be an interesting contrast of styles. Yet Alabama will be the clear favorite in either scenario.
2. Tennessee Volunteers - No. 2 seed in Midwest Region
The Vols have Wofford up first in the tournament, with either Utah State or UCLA after. The Aggies are one of the top teams outside the high-major ranks and the Bruins are one of the few teams with a defense that compares to Tennesee’s. But will they have enough offense to score on them?
1. Auburn Tigers - No. 1 seed in South Region
As the top seed, look for Auburn to get past Alabama State. That leaves either Creighton or Louisville in the Round of 32. The Cardinals are three-point reliant and have dealt with injuries, with Creighton’s biggest strength (center Ryan Kalkbrenner) going up against arguably the best frontcourt in the nation. Of the four 1 seeds, it seems that the Tigers have the projected smoothest path to the Sweet 16.