11. Mississippi State Bulldogs
2024-25 Record: 21-13 (8-10 SEC)
I considered putting Mississippi State a couple of spots lower, considering they lost quite a bit of production from last season, but then I remembered that all Chris Jans-led teams have super high floors, even if the ceiling isn’t all that high. Jans has been the model of consistency since taking over in Starkville - winning 21 games overall, going 8-10 in conference play, and making the NCAA Tournament in each of his three seasons leading Mississippi State.
The offense was great last season - averaging nearly 80 points per game, which is unheard of with Mississippi State teams over the past few seasons - and Josh Hubbard's return gives the offense some legitimacy. Adding Jayden Epps (12.8 ppg), Quincy Ballard (10.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg), and Ja’Borri McGhee (11.1 ppg) from the transfer portal should help take some stress off Hubbard on that end of the court.
The biggest downfall for Mississippi State’s season last year was its defense. In their first season without Tolu Smith, the Bulldogs had their worst defense of the Jans era, allowing more than 74 points per game, which probably informs us as to why the offense took off this past year. The addition of Ballard should also help the defense bounce back, especially with his shot blocking ability - he led the AAC the past two seasons in blocked shots per game. Epps hasn’t always been the most locked-in defensive player, but he averaged 1.4 steals per game last season, which should help replace the 3.5 spg that left with Cameron Matthews and Riley Kugel.
This could be the season that the floor falls out from under Mississippi State, but as previously mentioned, Chris Jans almost guarantees 21 wins per season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Josh Hubbard should once again be great, but the players surrounding him aren’t quite as solid as the team that Jans put on the court last year. I’m willing to give the Bulldogs the benefit of the doubt until Jans has a truly terrible season.