Championship Week has already offered plenty of surprises, including several No. 1 seeds falling in their respective conference tournaments. But as the high-major and top leagues get going, a new storyline emerges. And that’s the bubble, with a number of teams whose resumes could swing one way or another to either get into the NCAA Tournament or see their seasons end on Selection Sunday.
In the past 24 hours, two teams got results that likely sealed their fates, in both good and bad ways.
Santa Clara 76-71 win over Saint Mary’s in WCC Tournament
Santa Clara’s main issue was that it had the same number of Quad 1 wins (1) as if does Quad 4 losses, with the non-con blemish to Loyola Chicago never getting better. But the Broncos managed to pull off a major win over Saint Mary’s on Monday night, their second over the Gaels and another Quad 1 win on their resume.
Santa Clara also has a top-40 NET ranking and is 6-1 against Quad 2 opponents, good for a mid-major program. The biggest help is that they look like an at-large team, compared to so many bubble teams limping into March. The Broncos could end all doubts with a win over Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament title game for the autobid, but even if they don’t get it, they should be in good shape for the at-large bid.
Stanford falls 64-63 to Pittsburgh in 1st Round of the ACC Tournament
Because so many bubble teams took losses in the last week, the Cardinal still had some level of hope entering the ACC Tournament, thanks to wins over Saint Louis, UNC, and NC State. However, they also have four Quad 3 losses, including the one to Pittsburgh to open the ACC Tournament.
That many setbacks, combined with average metrics overall, just won’t do it. Not enough teams will lose in the next few days to give the Cardinal a chance. Their odds may have been rough to begin with, but now, there’s officially one fewer team on the bubble to watch for.