The work that Jamie Dixon has done across a full decade as head coach at his alma mater has been admirable if not impressive. The Horned Frogs had been to the NCAA Tournament just once in nearly three decades before Dixon returned to Fort Worth and the results have been outstanding. TCU has transformed from a doormat to a team that’s actually competing in the Big 12, fresh off a fifth trip to the Big Dance in his tenure.
That latest season saw a 23-12 record, a 6th place finish in the tough Big 12 standings, and the program’s fourth trip to the NCAA Tournament in five seasons. The Horned Frogs even upended Ohio State in the opening round, giving Dixon his third Tourney win since taking over as head coach. What’s more impressive was that this was the very first time in his tenure that TCU finished above .500 in conference play with that 11-7 mark.
Lost a punch
However, the task of building on that success in never easy, especially when leading scorer David Punch and a few other players exit through the transfer portal. TCU lost some experienced pieces but have made some interesting offseason moves that should keep them in the conversation in the Big 12.
Four very capable returning players highlight the talent for the Horned Frogs alongside a decent transfer haul and intriguing crop of new faces. When you put it all together, it’s impossible to know just where the chips will fall for this team but it’s hard to imagine TCU taking too much of a step back this season. Let’s get into this experienced lineup and speak a little on each of the important pieces in this rotation.
Projected Starters
Guard – Brock Harding (Senior)
Following two seasons at Iowa, Harding became TCU’s starting point guard and put together a pretty solid junior year, averaging 8.0 points, 5.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. He’s a true floor general with a great IQ and foresight and we’ll see if an additional year in this system becomes even greater results heading into his senior season.
Guard – Tanner Toolson (Senior)
Another important addition from last offseason, Toolson came TCU’s way after time with BYU and Utah Valley, becoming an important guard in the WAC. He carved out an important role off the bench with the Horned Frogs and averaged 7.7 points and 3.2 rebounds per game last year. He’s an impressive slasher with mid-range potential who’s set for a much bigger role this season, especially if those shooting figures can take off again.
Guard – Micah Robinson (Junior)
A 6-6 wing from Kansas City, Robinson is a former Top 100 recruit who’s entering his third seasons with the Horned Frogs. After work as a reserve in year one, he found his footing last season to the tune of 10.9 points and 4.7 rebounds a game. Robinson should step into a larger role as a full-time starter thanks to his toughness on both sides of the ball.
Forward – Xavier Edmonds (Senior)
Yet another returning face in this starting lineup, Edmonds had two solid years at the junior college level before joining TCU last offseason. The Long Beach native started all of last season, putting up 12.7 points and 6.5 rebounds with solid shooting figures while nabbing Third Team All-Big 12 honors. He’s a pro prospect thanks to his strength and ability to move around the court, especially with how his outside shot looked last year.
Forward – Luke Bamgboye (Junior)
The new face in this lineup is Bamgboye, who heads to TCU after spending a year each at VCU and Texas Tech. He showed fantastic potential and even earned All-Defense honors with the Rams, though the depth chart and a knee injury limited him with the Red Raiders. Regardless, the Horned Frogs get an impressive big man known for his shot blocking ability who can be a backbone on defense and an offensive weapon in the paint.
Key Reserves
Guard – Trent Lincoln (Junior)
Perhaps the most underrated addition of this offseason, Lincoln comes TCU’s way after starring at the junior college level for the past two seasons. Considered one of JUCO’s top prospects, Lincoln is a fantastic shooter and facilitator who put up 19.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.1 assists at Gulf State College last year. We’ll see how that translates to life in the Big 12, though he brings experience as the new backup point guard.
Guard – Ricards Aizpurs (Freshman)
He’s still a relatively young prospect, but Aizpurs is a 6-6 wing from Latvia who was getting plenty of attention for his work overseas. He’s a fantastic shot maker, especially from long-range, and provides positional versatility for the Horned Frogs. What role he’ll play right away is uncertain, though he’s got the size to win defensive matchups and can also handle the ball.
Forward – Milos Sojic (Freshman)
Another international addition from this past offseason, Sojic is a 6-9 power forward from Serbia. His work in Europe saw him score and rebound quite a ton, really utilizing his size and strength in those tough pro leagues. How his game translates into the Big 12 remains to be seen, though that size and playmaking ability should have fans excited for the future.
Guard – Gavin Sykes (Sophomore)
The sheer numbers were electric for Sykes in his freshman season at Long Beach State. The native of Sacramento put up 19.4 points and 3.0 rebounds per game on 39% long-range shooting before opting to transfer and landing in Fort Worth. There’s clearly a role for him to play and another sharpshooter on the bench is never a bad thing, though clearly that type of production likely won’t be repeated in a much tougher conference and a smaller role.
Forward – DJ Thomas (Sophomore)
After spending his freshman season at West Virginia, Thomas heads to TCU with Big 12 experience and an eagerness to be a real contributor for the Horned Frogs. He played decent minutes off the bench for the Mountaineers, averaging 6.6 points and 2.1 rebounds per game last season. There’s absolutely a chance for him to be a bigger contributor than many expect, especially if his defense is up to snuff.
Forward – Sam Fleming (Freshman)
A notable American recruit for the Horned Frogs, Fleming is a 6-7 wing from Massachusetts. He dealt with a torn Achilles during his high school career but he’s a valuable and versatile athlete who can be a real asset when healthy and on the court. We’ll see how he handles the size and strength of Big 12 opposition though he projects to be a fine scorer who can affect the game in several ways.
Forward – Ryan Hunt (Junior)
Hunt is a 7-footer originally from Australia who went the junior college route before landing with the Horned Frogs. His work at Eastern Arizona College was impressive, averaging a double-double, while continuing to develop his game as a paint presence, shot blocker, and long-range shooter as well.
Schedule Outlook
This schedule isn’t exactly the world’s most challenging start to the season. TCU’s first five games all come in their home arena, though the fifth is a big test against Texas A&M on November 19th. Right after that this team heads to Las Vegas for the Players Era Championship, facing Miami, then Creighton or Michigan, and at least one more opponent in what should be another incredible event and a big measuring tool for this coaching staff.
After that significant challenge, TCU gets their first true road test against Notre Dame on December 5th. Exactly one week later another ACC team comes to town, as the Horned Frogs host Clemson on the 12th of the month. Three more buy games at home close the book on a nonconference slate that includes eight very winnable home games with mid-majors.
There’s no dodging the smoke in the Big 12 and that’s evident from the jump, as they’ll open conference play at Houston on January 2nd. In the unbalanced scheduling, TCU gets two looks at Arizona State, BYU, and Oklahoma State so you could certainly argue they got a break there. However, they have to play tough road games at Arizona and Iowa State in February, and also host the Jayhawks during a rough stretch near the end of league play.
Season Outlook
Even without Punch and those other departures you get the feeling that TCU has the talent to compete on a regular basis in this league. There’s zero easy contests in the Big 12 but this team didn’t go 11-7 last year by accident. Getting four returning faces in the starting lineup is a great start but is it enough?
What’s first important is that Harding and Toolson settle well into those bigger roles in the backcourt. Both Lincoln and Sykes look like solid additions but there really isn’t a ton of experience or depth at guard and a big step forward for Harding in particular would be big news for the Horned Frogs. Along a similar line, Robinson did great work largely form the bench and has even more on his shoulders if TCU is going dancing again.
We then have a frontcourt teeming with potential but it’s all about what these players actually do in the months ahead. Bamgboye has shown he can be a great defender and shot blocker but can he stay healthy and be reliable for the entire season as TCU’s center? Among the newcomers, will it be Hunt or Thomas or someone else who really emerges off the bench and plays a meaningful role for this team?
TCU likely won’t have the answers to those questions by the time they head to Las Vegas in late November, though that event might start showing us just how real this team can be in this season. Even with their success, this is a largely overlooked team in a Big 12 full of big name programs, but we’re not dismissing any of the potential here. If this team stays healthy, they can win big games and dance once more.
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